We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.
We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.
The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.
ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.
Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates. 相似文献
New zircon fission-track (ZFT) ages from Corsica record multiple thermal events that can be tied to the structural evolution of the western Mediterranean region. The Corsican zircons have a wide scatter of ZFT grain ages (243–14 Ma), which together define several age domains. Western Corsica consists largely of stable Hercynian basement characterized by ZFT ages in the range 161–114 Ma. We interpret these ages (Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous) as the product of a long-lived Tethyan thermal event related to continental rifting and subsequent drifting during the separation of the European and African plates and the formation of the Liguro–Piemontese ocean basin. In contrast to Hercynian Corsica, Alpine Corsica (northeast Corsica) experienced widespread deformation and metamorphism in Late Cretaceous(?)–Tertiary time. Dated samples from Alpine Corsica range in age from 112 to 19 Ma and all are reset or partially reset by one or more Alpine thermal events. The youngest ZFT grain ages are from the northernmost Alpine Corsica and define an age population at 24 Ma that indicates cooling after Tertiary thermal events associated with the Alpine metamorphism and the opening of the Liguro–Provençal basin. A less well-defined ZFT age population at 72 Ma is present in both Alpine Corsica and Hercynian basement rocks. The thermal history of these rocks is not clear. One interpretation is that the ZFT population at 72 Ma reflects resetting during a Late Cretaceous event broadly synchronous with the early Alpine metamorphism. Another interpretation is that this peak is related to variable fission-track annealing and partial resetting during the Tertiary Alpine metamorphic event across central to north-eastern Corsica. This partial age resetting supports the presence of a fossil ZFT partial annealing zone and limits the peak temperature in this area below 300 °C, for both the affected pre-Alpine and Alpine units. 相似文献
LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) is one of the most recent technologies in surveying and mapping. LIDAR is based on the combination of three different data collection tools: a laser scanner mounted on an aircraft, a Global Positioning System (GPS) used in phase differential kinematic modality to provide the sensor position and an Inertial Navigation System (INS) to provide the orientation. The laser sends towards the ground an infrared signal, which is reflected back to the sensor. The time employed by the signal, given the aircraft position and attitude, allows computation of the earth point elevation. In standard conditions, taking into account the flight (speed 200–250 km/hour, altitude 500–2,000 m) and sensor characteristics (scan angle ± 10–20 degrees, emission rate 2,000–50,000 pulses per second), earth elevations are collected within a density of one point every 0.5–3 m. The technology allows us therefore to obtain very accurate (5–20 cm) and high resolution Digital Surface Models (DSM). For many applications, the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) is needed: we have to automatically detect and discard from the previous DSM all the features (buildings, trees, etc.) present on the terrain. This paper describes a procedure that has been implemented within GRASS to construct DTMs from LIDAR source data. 相似文献
We present a refinement of the recursive digital filter proposed by McMillen (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 43:231–245, 1988), for separating surface-layer turbulence from low-frequency fluctuations affecting the mean flow, especially over complex terrain. In fact, a straightforward application of the filter causes both an amplitude attenuation and a forward phase shift in the filtered signal. As a consequence turbulence fluctuations, evaluated as the difference between the original series and the filtered one, as well as higher-order moments calculated from them, may be affected by serious inaccuracies. The new algorithm (i) produces a rigorous zero-phase filter, (ii) restores the amplitude of the low-frequency signal, and (iii) corrects all filter-induced signal distortions. 相似文献
Using four-dimensional symplectic maps as a model problem, we numerically compute the unstable manifolds of the hyperbolic manifolds of the phase space related to the single resonances. We measure an exponential dependence of the size of the lobes of these manifolds through many orders of magnitude of the perturbing parameter. This is an indirect numerical verification of the exponential decay of the normal form, as predicted by the Nekhoroshev theorem. The variation of the size of the lobes turns out to be correlated to the diffusion coefficient. 相似文献
Using numerical methods we study the hyperbolic manifolds in a model of a priori unstable dynamical system. We compare the numerically computed manifolds with their analytic expression obtained with the Melnikov approximation. We find that, at small values of the perturbing parameter, the topology of the numerically computed stable and unstable manifolds is the same as in their Melnikov approximation. Increasing the value of the perturbing parameter, we find that the stable and unstable manifolds have a peculiar topological transition. We find that this transition occurs near those values of the perturbing parameter for which the error terms of Melnikov approximations have a sharp increment. The transition value is also correlated with a change in the behaviour of dynamical quantities, such as the largest Lyapunov exponent and the diffusion coefficient. 相似文献
The geomorphological and morphometric analysis of the sea floor topography surrounding the Aeolian Islands, South Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy, provides insights into the relationships between the volcanological evolution of the islands and their tectonic features. We constructed geomorphological maps of the submarine portions of the seven large edifices constituting the islands on the basis of a DEM with a 5 m resolution step. These maps include constructional and destructional landforms such as submarine volcanic vents located west of Lipari and north of Alicudi, and hummocky surfaces recognised north of Lipari and Salina. The latter landforms, together with the occurrence of large scars affecting the main edifices on land, suggest that sector collapses affected some islands. Geomorphological data indicate that the location of subaerial and submarine vents is strongly controlled by local tectonic structures striking WNW-ESE (Alicudi-Filicudi sector), NNW-SSE (Salina-Lipari-Vulcano sector) and NE-SW (Panarea-Stromboli sector). The islands can be divided into two groups on the basis of some morphometric parameters: a first group with a pancake-like shape, Dp/D (abrasion platform diameter/basal diameter) higher than 0.40 and H/D (total height/basal diameter) lower than 0.13, and a second group with a conical shape, characterised by Dp/D lower than 0.34 and H/D higher than 0.14. These ratios and other morphometric parameters reflect the different volcanological and structural evolution of the Aeolian Islands. The pancake-like shaped complexes have been created, in addition to their submarine stage, by extrusive and highly explosive activity, whereas the cone-shaped edifices have been characterised by effusive or moderate explosive activity.Editorial responsibility: C Kilburn 相似文献
Active volcanoes characterized by open conduit conditions generate sonic and infrasonic signals, whose investigation provides useful information for both monitoring purposes and studying the dynamics of explosive processes. In this work, we discuss the automatic procedures implemented for a real-time application to the data acquired by a permanent network of five infrasound stations running at Mt. Etna volcano. The infrasound signals at Mt. Etna consist in amplitude transients, called infrasound events. The adopted procedure uses a multi-algorithm approach for event detection, counting, characterization and location. It is designed for an efficient and accurate processing of infrasound records provided by single-site and array stations. Moreover, the source mechanism of these events can be investigated off-line or in near real-time by using three different models: (1) Strombolian bubble; (2) resonating conduit and (3) Helmholtz resonator. The infrasound waveforms allow us to choose the most suitable model, to get quantitative information about the source and to follow the time evolution of the source parameters. 相似文献