Separate and interactive effects of eutrophication and climate variables on the ecosystem elements of the Gulf of Riga

There is currently a critical knowledge gap in how eutrophication and climate variables separately and interactively impact the dynamics of marine ecosystems. Based on long-term monitoring data we quantified the separate and combined impacts of nutrient loading, temperature, salinity, and wind conditions on zooplankton, zoobenthos and fish inhabiting a brackish water ecosystem in the Gulf of Riga. Changes in zoobenthos communities and herring stock were largely explained by climate variables. Zooplankton species were related to both eutrophication and climate variables, and models combining all environmental variables explained additional variation in zooplankton data compared to the separate models of climate and eutrophication. This suggests that zoobenthos communities and herring stock are largely driven by weather conditions, whereas the combined effect of weather and nutrient loads are likely the cause for dynamic zooplankton communities in the Gulf of Riga.     

Models for reproducing the damage scenario of the Lorca earthquake

A damage scenario modelling is developed and compared with the damage distribution observed after the 2011 Lorca earthquake. The strong ground motion models considered include five modern ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) amply used worldwide. Capacity and fragility curves from the Risk-UE project are utilized to model building vulnerability and expected damage. Damage estimates resulting from different combinations of GMPE and capacity/fragility curves are compared with the actual damage scenario, establishing the combination that best explains the observed damage distribution. In addition, some recommendations are proposed, including correction factors in fragility curves in order to reproduce in a better way the observed damage in masonry and reinforce concrete buildings. The lessons learned would contribute to improve the simulation of expected damages due to future earthquakes in Lorca or other regions in Spain with similar characteristics regarding attenuation and vulnerability.     

Assessment of global warming on the island of Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spain). Trends in minimum, maximum and mean temperatures since 1944

Temperature variation is studied at different altitudes and orientation on the island of Tenerife, according to the trends in the mean, maximum and minimum at 21 meteorological stations. Reference series are obtained by sectors, along with a representative overall series for Tenerife, in which temperature shows a statistically significant growth trend of 0.09?±?0.04°C/decade since 1944. Night-time temperatures have risen most (0.17°C?±?0.04°C/decade), while by day they have been more stable. Consequently, the diurnal temperature range between day and night has narrowed. By regions, warming has been much more intense in the high mountains than the other sectors below the inversion layer between 600 and 1,400?m altitude, and progressively milder towards the coast. The temperature rise on the windward (north-northeast) slopes is greater than on the leeward side and could be related to the increase in cloudiness on the northern side. The general warming of the island is less than in continental areas at between 24 and 44oN, being closer to the sea surface temperature in the same area. This is probably explained largely by the insular conditions. In fact warming is more evident in the high mountains (0.14?±?0.07°C/decade), where the tempering effect of the ocean and the impact of changes in the stratocumulus is weaker, being similar to the mean continental values in the northern hemisphere.     

Tectonics of an extinct ridge-transform intersection,Drake Passage (Antarctica)

New swath bathymetric, multichannel seismic and magnetic data reveal the complexity of the intersection between the extinct West Scotia Ridge (WSR) and the Shackleton Fracture Zone (SFZ), a first-order NW-SE trending high-relief ridge cutting across the Drake Passage. The SFZ is composed of shallow, ridge segments and depressions, largely parallel to the fracture zone with an `en echelon' pattern in plan view. These features are bounded by tectonic lineaments, interpreted as faults. The axial valley of the spreading center intersects the fracture zone in a complex area of deformation, where N120° E lineaments and E–W faults anastomose on both sides of the intersection. The fracture zone developed within an extensional regime, which facilitated the formation of oceanic transverse ridges parallel to the fracture zone and depressions attributed to pull-apart basins, bounded by normal and strike-slip faults.On the multichannel seismic (MCS) profiles, the igneous crust is well stratified, with numerous discontinuous high-amplitude reflectors and many irregular diffractions at the top, and a thicker layer below. The latter has sparse and weak reflectors, although it locally contains strong, dipping reflections. A bright, slightly undulating reflector observed below the spreading center axial valley at about 0.75 s (twt) depth in the igneous crust is interpreted as an indication of the relict axial magma chamber. Deep, high-amplitude subhorizontal and slightly dipping reflections are observed between 1.8 and 3.2 s (twt) below sea floor, but are preferentially located at about 2.8–3.0 s (twt) depth. Where these reflections are more continuous they may represent the Mohorovicic seismic discontinuity. More locally, short (2–3 km long), very high-amplitude reflections observed at 3.6 and 4.3 s (twt) depth below sea floor are attributed to an interlayered upper mantle transition zone. The MCS profiles also show a pattern of regularly spaced, steep-inclined reflectors, which cut across layers 2 and 3 of the oceanic crust. These reflectors are attributed to deformation under a transpressional regime that developed along the SFZ, shortly after spreading ceased at the WSR. Magnetic anomalies 5 to 5 E may be confidently identified on the flanks of the WSR. Our spreading model assumes slow rates (ca. 10–20 mm/yr), with slight asymmetries favoring the southeastern flank between 5C and 5, and the northwestern flank between 5 and extinction. The spreading rate asymmetry means that accretion was slower during formation of the steeper, shallower, southeastern flank than of the northwestern flank.     

A comparative mineralogical study of gas-related sediments of the Gulf of Cádiz

The Gulf of Cádiz area has been extensively surveyed in recent years and several gas-related fluid escape seafloor structures have been identified. In this study, gravity cores, collected during the ANASTASYA/00 and ANASTASYA/01 cruises, on mud volcanoes, hemipelagic sediments and dredged material from diapiric structures, have been studied. A comparative mineralogical analysis by XRD and SEM of samples from different areas has been performed in order to determine whether there is a characteristic mineralogy related to these fluid escape structures, and also to determine the origin of the mud matrix and constrain the depth of the parent units. The mineralogical analysis reflects the different origins of the different units described in the cores: hemipelagic material of the slope, clays that underlie the mud volcanoes and are discharged at the sea bottom surface, and authigenic and diagenetic minerals possibly involved in the anaerobic oxidation of methane in the mud volcano sediments.     

Cd, Pb, Cu, Ni and Co distribution in the German Bight

Cd, Pb and Cu concentrations, dissolved and total, have been determined in the German Bight. In 1975, 1977, 1978, 1980 and 1983 water samples were collected at 215 sampling stations. In the 1983 mission samples were also analysed for Ni and Co. The samples were filtered and acidified immediately after collection. Analysis was performed by voltammetry.The analytical data indicate that a net portion of the Cd, the Weser being a distinct source for it, will cross the estuarine zone. Open sea Cd levels in the German Bight are about a factor 10 higher than North Atlantic values. Pb, being transported mainly with the suspended particulate phase (up to 99.5%), is better eliminated by sedimentation in the estuaries. Ni and Cu occur mainly in the dissolved phase. Pollution by Co is distinct in the Elbe, but the output is rapidly diluted to background contents below 10 ng kg⁻¹. An interpretation of the results from the different years yields a rather steady state situation in the German Bight.     

Miocene extensional detachments in the outcropping basement of the northern Alboran Basin (Betics) and their tectonic implications

Whether or not there are extensional detachment faults in the Alboran basement can be tested directly because a part of the Alboran Basin is now emerged. These detachments, related to crustal thinning beneath the Alboran Basin, occurred from the Aquitanian to Tortonian. The resulting extensional geometries can be described in general terms. During the Serravalian a considerable southwest extension of the basin took place, accompanied by south-southeast extension in the northern Gibraltar Arc. Other detachments affected by Serravalian extension can be found. The spreading of the Alboran was nearly coeval with roughly westward migration of the Gibraltar mountain front.     

Smoothing and high risk areas detection in space-time disease mapping: a comparison of P-splines,autoregressive, and moving average models

Recently, several models have been proposed for smoothing risks in disease mapping. These models consider different ways of introducing both spatial and temporal dependence as well as spatio-temporal interactions. In this work, a comparison among some autoregressive, moving average, and P-spline models is performed. Firstly, brain cancer mortality data are used to analyze the degree of smoothness introduced by these models. Secondly, two separate simulation studies (one model-based and the other model-free) are carried out to evaluate the model performance in terms of bias, variability, sensitivity, and specificity. We conclude that P-spline models seem to be a good alternative to autoregressive and moving average models when analyzing highly sparse disease mapping data.     

Evolution of the Fine Structure of Magnetic Fields in the Quiet Sun: Observations from Sunrise/IMaX and Extrapolations

Observations with the balloon-borne Sunrise/Imaging Magnetograph eXperiment (IMaX) provide high spatial resolution (roughly 100 km at disk center) measurements of the magnetic field in the photosphere of the quiet Sun. To investigate the magnetic structure of the chromosphere and corona, we extrapolate these photospheric measurements into the upper solar atmosphere and analyze a 22-minute long time series with a cadence of 33 seconds. Using the extrapolated magnetic-field lines as tracer, we investigate temporal evolution of the magnetic connectivity in the quiet Sun’s atmosphere. The majority of magnetic loops are asymmetric in the sense that the photospheric field strength at the loop foot points is very different. We find that the magnetic connectivity of the loops changes rapidly with a typical connection recycling time of about 3±1 minutes in the upper solar atmosphere and 12±4 minutes in the photosphere. This is considerably shorter than previously found. Nonetheless, our estimate of the energy released by the associated magnetic-reconnection processes is not likely to be the sole source for heating the chromosphere and corona in the quiet Sun.     

Numerical modelling of the potential effects of a dam on a coastal aquifer in S. Spain

This study presents the results of a three‐dimensional variable‐density numerical modelling of the Motril‐Salobreña coastal aquifer and the possible effects of the entry into service in May 2005 of the Rules Dam, located just 17 km from the coast. Present parameters of the Motril‐Salobreña aquifer show that the system's conditions are very similar to a natural regime. The dam will substantially alter aquifer recharge, as the entry flow through the alluvial sediments of the Guadalfeo River will be entirely cut off or drastically reduced. Different scenarios reproducing the possible evolution of the aquifer under operation of the Rules Dam have been modelled. In most cases, results indicate that the conditions of the aquifer would worsen, with a general advance of the freshwater–saltwater interface. The area with most risk of saltwater intrusion is the old mouth of the Guadalfeo River, where the mixing zone could advance 1200 m inland. It is proposed that maintaining a 5–6 Mm³ year^?1 ‘ecological flow’ in the Guadalfeo River could prevent this saline advance. This application demonstrates that variable‐density models are potentially useful tools for estimating the effects of dams on the hydrodynamic and hydrochemical conditions of a coastal aquifer. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.