Is there any long-term memory effect in the tropical cyclones?

The investigation of the intrinsic properties of the annual tropical cyclone count over Atlantic, during 1870–2006, is herewith attempted. The motivation behind this exploration is to contribute to the current understanding about the dynamics of these disastrous events, as tropical cyclones create destructive impacts for people living around tropical areas. The analytical tool used is the detrended fluctuation analysis, and the exponent obtained reveals that the time series of the annual tropical cyclone count over Atlantic obeys the classical random walk (white noise). In other words, the number of tropical cyclones seems to exhibit neither persistent nor antipersistent behavior. The reliability of the lack of scaling dependence in the time series of the annual tropical cyclone count is confirmed, by applying error bounds statistics and studying the decay of the autocorrelation function (i.e., not rejected exponential decay) and the variability of local slopes (i.e., lack of constancy in a sufficient range). In addition, the fact that the series used is fractional Gaussian noise depicts that the results obtained are reliable, despite the fact that the available data set is still limited. The indication of a nearly white noise signal in the tropical cyclone count fluctuations does not suggest that the climate change phenomenon does not exist.     

Genetic heterogeneity in populations of the Mediterranean shore crab, Carcinus aestuarii (Decapoda,Portunidae), from the Venice Lagoon

Heterogeneity in genetic composition among recruits, mostly due to a large variance in reproductive success mediated by oceanographic processes, has been reported for marine species but is less understood in coastal lagoons' organisms. Temporal genetic variation in natural populations of the Mediterranean shore crab Carcinus aestuarii was quantified over a multi-year sample. A total of 486 adult crabs were collected at eight different sites of the Venice Lagoon during the period 2005–2007 and screened for genetic variation using 11 microsatellite loci. Two additional samples (N = 115) from neighbouring sites, located approximately 100 km North and South to the Venice Lagoon, were included for the sake of comparison. Our results show significant differences in allelic frequencies at the micro-geographic scale of the Venice Lagoon, observed between sites of collection, typologies of habitat, and areas with different class of ecological risk or pattern of hemocyanin expression. However, this pattern was not constant between years, with significant differences observed mainly in 2005 and 2006, but not in 2007. Our results indicate significant temporal differences suggesting the existence of dynamic processes that act on the genetic pool of this species. Although natural selection and gene flow might play a role, we suggest that genetic drift linked to large variation in the reproductive success of individuals is the most probable scenario to explain the local genetic patterns of differentiation in the Mediterranean shore crab. Our study, by providing the first evidence for the existence of genetic differences in this species at the micro-geographic scale, suggests that a better comprehension of the link between reproduction, recruitment and oceanography is critical to understand how colonization and maintenance of genetic variation is achieved in ephemeral and vulnerable environments such as coastal lagoons.     

Last glacial fire regime variability in western France inferred from microcharcoal preserved in core MD04-2845, Bay of Biscay

High resolution multiproxy analysis (microcharcoal, pollen, organic carbon, Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (s), ice rafted debris) of the deep-sea record MD04-2845 (Bay of Biscay) provides new insights for understanding mechanisms of fire regime variability of the last glacial period in western France. Fire regime of western France closely follows Dansgaard–Oeschger climatic variability and presents the same pattern than that of southwestern Iberia, namely low fire regime associated with open vegetation during stadials including Heinrich events, and high fire regime associated with open forest during interstadials. This supports a regional climatic control on fire regime for western Europe through fuel availability for the last glacial period. Additionally, each of Heinrich events 6, 5 and 4 is characterised by three episodes of fire regime, with a high regime bracketed by lower fire regime episodes, related to vegetational succession and complex environmental condition changes.     

New high‐resolution age data from the Ediacaran–Cambrian boundary indicate rapid,ecologically driven onset of the Cambrian explosion

The replacement of the late Precambrian Ediacaran biota by morphologically disparate animals at the beginning of the Phanerozoic was a key event in the history of life on Earth, the mechanisms and the time‐scales of which are not entirely understood. A composite section in Namibia providing biostratigraphic and chemostratigraphic data bracketed by radiometric dating constrains the Ediacaran–Cambrian boundary to 538.6–538.8 Ma, more than 2 Ma younger than previously assumed. The U–Pb‐CA‐ID TIMS zircon ages demonstrate an ultrashort time frame for the LAD of the Ediacaran biota to the FAD of a complex, burrowing Phanerozoic biota represented by trace fossils to a 410 ka time window of 538.99 ± 0.21 Ma to 538.58 ± 0.19 Ma. The extremely short duration of the faunal transition from Ediacaran to Cambrian biota within less than 410 ka supports models of ecological cascades that followed the evolutionary breakthrough of increased mobility at the beginning of the Phanerozoic.     

Intermediate-term seismic precursors for some coupled subduction zones

The paper discusses model results and then reviews observational data concerning some aspects of the mechanics of mature seismic gaps in coupled subduction zones. The concern is with space-and time-varying stresses, as signalled by the presence and mechanisms of earthquakes in the outer-rise zones adjacent to main thrust areas of large subduction events, and down-dip from such areas, in the downgoing slab. Observations are shown to be consistent with the expectation that in mature seismic gaps, as a result of interplate boundary locking in presence of sustained gravitational driving forces, at least the deeper portions of the ocean plate in the outer-rise zones are under increased compression, and the downgoing slab is under increased tension. The observational data cover two cases of closed seismic gaps, namely the region of the Chilean Valparaiso earthquake of March 3, 1985, and the earthquake of October 4, 1983. Four other cases concern still to-be-closed gaps in northern Chile and along the coast of Guatemala, and also the Kurile Islands Trench gap and the northern New Hebrides gap. It is concluded that the intermediate-term precursor, consisting of a combination of compressional outer-rise earthquake(s) and tensional intermediate-depth, intra-plate events in the downgoing slab, which mechanically signals the latter part of the earthquake cycle, could be useful in evaluating the maturity, and hence great earthquake potential of a seismic gap.     

Improving flood forecasting using an input correction method in urban models in poorly gauged areas

ABSTRACT

Poorly monitored catchments could pose a challenge in the provision of accurate flood predictions by hydrological models, especially in urbanized areas subject to heavy rainfall events. Data assimilation techniques have been widely used in hydraulic and hydrological models for model updating (typically updating model states) to provide a more reliable prediction. However, in the case of nonlinear systems, such procedures are quite complex and time-consuming, making them unsuitable for real-time forecasting. In this study, we present a data assimilation procedure, which corrects the uncertain inputs (rainfall), rather than states, of an urban catchment model by assimilating water-level data. Five rainfall correction methods are proposed and their effectiveness is explored under different scenarios for assimilating data from one or multiple sensors. The methodology is adopted in the city of São Carlos, Brazil. The results show a significant improvement in the simulation accuracy.     

Reproductive ecology of the seabob shrimp <Emphasis Type="Italic">Xiphopenaeus kroyeri</Emphasis> (Heller, 1862) in a coastal area of Southern Brazil

The predictability of certain environmental factors that affect the life cycle of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri (Heller, 1862) was evaluated in a study of its reproductive biology in an area adjacent to Babitonga Bay, State of Santa Catarina, Brazil. Monthly sampling was conducted from July 2010 through June 2011 at depths of 5, 8, 11, 14, and 17 m. 76 004 individuals were obtained, with a pronounced peak in absolute abundance in austral autumn (34 208), coinciding with the annual closed season from March to May. Grain size composition of the sediment showed the closest relationship to the distribution of individuals (multiple linear regression, P <0.05), related to their burying habit. The observed correlations between the abundance of reproductive males (bearing spermatophores) and females with spent gonads (cross-correlation, P <0.05), and between reproductive males and reproductive females (with a 1-month lag) suggest that the peak of reproductive males preceded the peak of female ones. This result agrees with the pattern expected for females, which copulate in post-ecdysis (spent gonads). Spawning seemed to take place at greater depths, as evidenced by the concentration of reproductive females in these areas. The reproductive activities observed here confirm that this species follows a tropical/subtropical reproductive pattern, spawning continuously throughout the year, with the highest peaks in spring and autumn. The data indicate that the juvenile recruitment period observed in August-September resulted from the reproductive output noted in April–May. Additionally, the reproductive period recorded in November led to the juvenile peak observed in March–May.