Streamflow drought time series forecasting: a case study in a small watershed in North West Spain

Drought is a climatic event that can cause significant damage both in natural environment and in human lives. Drought forecasting is an important issue in water resource planning. Due to the stochastic behaviour of droughts, a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model was applied to forecast monthly streamflow in a small watershed in Galicia (NW Spain). A better streamflow forecast obtained when the Martone index was included in the model as explanatory variable. After forecasting 12 leading month streamflow, three drought thresholds: streamflow mean, monthly streamflow mean and standardized streamflow index were chosen. Both observed and forecasted streamflow showed no drought evidence in this basin.     

Cyanotoxin contamination of semiarid drinking water supply reservoirs

Changing global climatic conditions and the continuous eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems have led to increased frequency, duration and toxicity of cyanobacterial blooms worldwide. This makes the provision of time series information on cyanotoxins extremely crucial for effective monitoring and management of water resources. The objective of the present study was to investigate seasonal and annual changes in microcystins (MCs), cylindrospermopsins (CYNs), saxitoxins (STXs), neo-saxitoxin (neo-STX) and anatoxin-a (ATX-a) concentrations in 11 public water supply reservoirs in the semiarid region of Brazil, from 2004 to 2011. Per time, at least one cyanotoxin was present in all the investigated reservoirs. High levels of MCs, CYNs, STXs and Neo-STX were detected simultaneously in Carpina, Duas Unas, Ipojuca, and Jucazinho reservoirs. All the investigated reservoirs had significant concentrations of MCs. The highest levels of MCs were found in Carpina (303,300.0 ng g^?1) and Duas Unas (122,053.9 ng g^?1) reservoirs, while the lowest concentration of the hepatotoxins was recorded in Ipojuca (10.3 ng g^?1) reservoir. On the other hand, CYN was detected in four reservoirs, STXs and Neo-STX in ten reservoirs and ATX-a in two reservoirs. The first record of CYN in Carpina reservoir was obtained in 2006. In addition, Carpina reservoir had the highest concentration of STXs and Neo-STX in the dry and rainy seasons, respectively. The high concentration of cyanotoxins observed in most samples obtained from semiarid reservoirs in Brazil demonstrates the need for regular monitoring and updated management programs.     

The role of floating mucilage in the invasive spread of the benthic microalga Chrysophaeum taylorii

Chrysophaeum taylorii Lewis & Bryan (Pelagophyceae) is a mucilage‐producing benthic microalga that has recently begun to spread in the Mediterranean Sea, where a range expansion is occurring. This paper presents the results of three field experiments that aimed to increase the knowledge on mucilage provision mechanisms for this benthic microalga and to evaluate the importance of mucilage in its range expansion. By means of two correlative field experiments (several years of data were considered to encompass the variability of mucilage cover) we found that, on the sea bottom, mucilage cover does not depend on epilithic cell density and that both its cover and settling are affected by water flow. We also tested the hypothesis that cells embedded in floating mucilage fall on the underlying substratum, where their abundance depends on water flow. To this aim, in the field we manipulated the presence of floating mucilaginous aggregates in cages with different levels of exposure to winds. The abundance of C. taylorii cells on the substratum under cages with mucilage was compared with that of two control treatments: cages without mucilage and mucilage in still water, in the field and lab, respectively. The results suggested that mucilage can represent an excellent strategy for the species to disperse, as C. taylorii cells fall from the floating mucilage and, if the water flow is unimportant, settle on hard substrata just underneath the cage. This study enriches the portfolio of knowledge of the dispersal strategies of microalgae and contributes to the understanding of the spread of invasive species.     

Assessing the possible impacts of temperature change on air quality and public health in Beijing, 2008–2012

Understanding the impact of temperature fluctuations on air quality and public health has gained popularity among environmental and epidemiological researchers. Potentially, increase and decrease in temperature between neighboring days have increased the environmental and health risk worldwide. Based on ordinary least-squares method, this paper aims to examine the impact of temperature fluctuations on air quality index (AQI) and respiratory health outcomes (RHOs) during 2008–2012 in Beijing. Our results show that a drop of more than 3 °C results in the increased impact on AQI and RHO in the heating period. At the same time, a raise of more than 3 °C results in the similar increased impact on AQI in the whole study period and heating period. Furthermore, for a raise of more than 3 °C, a larger impact on RHO is observed in the heating period compared with the whole study period. Additionally, an increase in temperature also results in the increased influence of health risk on females during the heating period. Our results suggest that the air quality and public health in Beijing are significantly influenced by decrease and increase in temperature in the heating period.

     

Vertical distribution of primary producers and zooplankton grazers during different phases of the Arctic spring bloom

During a circumnavigation of the Svalbard archipelago in May 2006, simultaneous marine environmental (meteorology, heat flux, ocean turbulence, irradiance) and biological (phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass/species) data were sampled at selected stations. The zooplankton data were supplemented by high-resolution, high-speed VPR sampling down to 100 m depth at most stations. We were able to sample different phases of the phytoplankton spring bloom in Arctic as well as in Atlantic waters, and the stations represented different situations with respect to irradiance, turbulence and water-column stability. Phytoplankton growth and depth distribution were physically controlled, while zooplankton distributions were affected by biological parameters and turbulence. Development of the zooplankton followed the phytoplankton bloom phase, which was progressing in a direction from west to east in the waters north of Svalbard, and southwards in the Barents Sea. Our results also showed that the zooplankton did not avoid Phaeocystis pouchetii colonies, which have earlier been described as toxic. Despite an early retreat of the ice this year there was no apparent mismatch between the phytoplankton bloom and the dominant mesozooplankton, Calanus spp.     

Seismic coupling and structure of the Hellenic subduction zone in the Ionian Islands region

The western Hellenic arc has been commonly considered as a largely aseismic subduction zone, from the comparison of a small rate of shortening derived from the seismic moment release, with a large rate of convergence inferred from geology. Complete seismic coupling would instead be expected from models that consider a control by plate tectonic forces, because of the trenchward velocity of the Hellenic–Aegean upper plate now confirmed with GPS measurements. In the region of the Ionian Islands, a subduction interplate boundary has been recently imaged and its seismogenic downdip width suggested to be moderate, from reflection seismic profiling and local earthquake tomography. In the appropriate model for such an earthquake source region, which considers a single interplate fault and takes into account these features, the moderate seismic moment release is found consistent with complete seismic coupling of this subduction. The shallow downdip limit of the seismogenic zone can be interpreted as due to the interplate boundary being overlain there by the ductile deeper crust of the orogenically thickened Hellenides.     

Analyses of bottom simulating reflections offshore Arauco and Coyhaique (Chile)

Two seismic sections offshore Arauco and Coyhaique, Chile, have been analysed to better define the seismic character of hydrate-bearing sediments. The velocity analysis was used to estimate the gas-phase concentration, which can serve to correlate hydrate presence to the geological features. The velocity model allowed us to recognise the hydrate layer above the bottom simulating reflector (BSR), and the free gas layer below it. The velocity field is affected by strong lateral variation, showing maximum (above the BSR) and minimum (below the BSR) values in the southern sector. Here, highest gas hydrate and free gas concentrations were calculated (15% and 2.7% of total volume respectively). The estimated geothermal gradient ranges from 35 to 95°C/km. In the northern sector, the highest gas hydrate and free gas concentrations are 15% and 0.2% of total volume respectively, and the geothermal gradient is uniform and equal to about 30°C/km.     

Polychaete Associations in a Subtropical Environment (São Sebastião Channel, Brazil): A Structural Analysis

Abstract. Analysis of polychaetes from 60 quantitative soft bottom samples (November 1993 – August 1994) from the São Sebastião Channel at 10 to 45 m yielded 126 species from a total of 12,003 individuals. The distribution of both the bottom sediment type and species was patchy. Abundance data were analysed with multivariate techniques and revealed a strong correlation between species and sediment variables. Polychaetes were more diverse, abundant and richer in species number in those sites with higher sandy fractions. On the other hand, sites where silt, clay and organic carbon predominated showed a poor annelid fauna. Here, pollution by the sewage discharge of a submarine pipe, the oil terminal activities and the clandestine oil tank washing have an important impact on the bottom fauna. Only little temporal variation in the composition of the polychaete associations was found during the study period.