Apatite Chlorine Concentration Measurements by LA‐ICP‐MS

Apatite incorporates variable and significant amounts of halogens (mainly F and Cl) in its crystal structure, which can be used to determine the initial F and Cl concentrations of magmas. The amount of chlorine in the apatite lattice also exerts an important compositional control on the degree of fission‐track annealing. Chlorine measurements in apatite have conventionally required electron probe microanalysis (EPMA). Laser ablation inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS) is increasingly used in apatite fission‐track dating to determine U concentrations and also in simultaneous U‐Pb dating and trace element measurements of apatite. Apatite Cl measurements by ICP‐MS would remove the need for EPMA but the high (12.97 eV) first ionisation potential makes analysis challenging. Apatite Cl data were acquired using two analytical set‐ups: a Resonetics M‐50 193 nm ArF Excimer laser coupled to an Agilent 7700× quadrupole ICP‐MS (using a 26 μm spot with an 8 Hz repetition rate) and a Photon Machines Analyte Excite 193 nm ArF Excimer laser coupled to a Thermo Scientific iCAP Qc (using a 30 μm spot with a 4 Hz repetition rate). Chlorine concentrations were determined by LA‐ICP‐MS (1140 analyses in total) for nineteen apatite occurrences, and there is a comprehensive EPMA Cl and F data set for 13 of the apatite samples. The apatite sample suite includes different compositions representative of the range likely to be encountered in natural apatites, along with extreme variants including two end‐member chlorapatites. Between twenty‐six and thirty‐nine isotopes were determined in each apatite sample corresponding to a typical analytical protocol for integrated apatite fission track (U and Cl contents) and U‐Pb dating, along with REE and trace element measurements. ³⁵Cl backgrounds (present mainly in the argon gas) were ~ 45–65 kcps in the first set‐up and ~ 4 kcps in the second set‐up. ³⁵Cl background‐corrected signals ranged from ~ 0 cps in end‐member fluorapatite to up to ~ 90 kcps in end‐member chlorapatite. Use of a collision cell in both analytical set‐ups decreased the low mass sensitivity by approximately an order of magnitude without improving the ³⁵Cl signal‐to‐background ratio. A minor Ca isotope was used as the internal standard to correct for drift in instrument sensitivity and variations in ablation volume during sessions. The ³⁵Cl/⁴³Ca values for each apatite (10–20 analyses each) when plotted against the EPMA Cl concentrations yield excellently constrained calibration relationships, demonstrating the suitability of the analytical protocol and that routine apatite Cl measurements by ICP‐MS are achievable.     

Unleakable carbon†

Unleakable carbon, or the uncombusted methane and carbon dioxide associated with fossil fuel systems, constitutes a potentially large and heretofore unrecognized factor in determining use of Earth’s remaining fossil fuel reserves. Advances in extraction technology have encouraged a shift to natural gas, but the advantage of fuel switching depends strongly on mitigating current levels of unleakable carbon, which can be substantial enough to offset any climate benefit relative to oil or coal. To illustrate the potential warming effect of methane emissions associated with utilizable portions of our remaining natural gas reserves, we use recent data published in peer-reviewed journals to roughly estimate the impact of these emissions. We demonstrate that unless unleakable carbon is curtailed, up to 59–81% of our global natural gas reserves must remain underground if we hope to limit warming to 2°C from 2010 to 2050. Successful climate change mitigation depends on improved quantification of current levels of unleakable carbon and a determination of acceptable levels of these emissions within the context of international climate change agreements.

Policy relevance

It is imperative that companies, investors, and world leaders considering capital expenditures and policies towards continued investment in natural gas fuels do so with a complete understanding of how dependent the ultimate climate benefits are upon increased regulation of unleakable carbon, the uncombusted carbon-based gases associated with fossil fuel systems, otherwise referred to as ‘fugitive’, ‘leaked’, ‘vented’, ‘flared’, or ‘unintended’ emissions. Continued focus on combustion emissions alone, or unburnable carbon, undermines the importance of assessing the full climate impacts of fossil fuels, leading many stakeholders to support near-term mitigation strategies that rely on fuel switching from coal and oil to cleaner burning natural gas. The current lack of transparent accounting of unleakable carbon represents a significant gap in the understanding of what portions of the Earth’s remaining global fossil fuel reserves can be utilized while still limiting global warming to 2°C. Successful climate change mitigation requires that stakeholders confront the issue of both unburnable and unleakable carbon when considering continued investment in and potential expansion of natural gas systems as part of a climate change solution.     

Facilitating adaptation of biodiversity to climate change: a conceptual framework applied to the world’s largest Mediterranean-climate woodland

The importance of ecological management for reducing the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change is increasingly recognized, yet frameworks to facilitate a structured approach to climate adaptation management are lacking. We developed a conceptual framework that can guide identification of climate change impacts and adaptive management options in a given region or biome. The framework focuses on potential points of early climate change impact, and organizes these along two main axes. First, it recognizes that climate change can act at a range of ecological scales. Secondly, it emphasizes that outcomes are dependent on two potentially interacting and countervailing forces: (1) changes to environmental parameters and ecological processes brought about by climate change, and (2) responses of component systems as determined by attributes of resistance and resilience. Through this structure, the framework draws together a broad range of ecological concepts, with a novel emphasis on attributes of resistance and resilience that can temper the response of species, ecosystems and landscapes to climate change. We applied the framework to the world’s largest remaining Mediterranean-climate woodland, the ‘Great Western Woodlands’ of south-western Australia. In this relatively intact region, maintaining inherent resistance and resilience by preventing anthropogenic degradation is of highest priority and lowest risk. Limited, higher risk options such as fire management, protection of refugia and translocation of adaptive genes may be justifiable under more extreme change, hence our capacity to predict the extent of change strongly impinges on such management decisions. These conclusions may contrast with similar analyses in degraded landscapes, where natural integrity is already compromised, and existing investment in restoration may facilitate experimentation with higher risk?options.     

Heterogeneously entrapped,vapor-rich melt inclusions record pre-eruptive magmatic volatile contents

Silicate melt inclusions (MI) commonly provide the best record of pre-eruptive H₂O and CO₂ contents of subvolcanic melts, but the concentrations of CO₂ and H₂O in the melt (glass) phase within MI can be modified by partitioning into a vapor bubble after trapping. Melt inclusions may also enclose vapor bubbles together with the melt (i.e., heterogeneous entrapment), affecting the bulk volatile composition of the MI, and its post-entrapment evolution. In this study, we use numerical modeling to examine the systematics of post-entrapment volatile evolution within MI containing various proportions of trapped vapor from zero to 95 volume percent. Modeling indicates that inclusions that trap only a vapor-saturated melt exhibit significant decrease in CO₂ and moderate increase in H₂O concentrations in the melt upon nucleation and growth of a vapor bubble. In contrast, inclusions that trap melt plus vapor exhibit subdued CO₂ depletion at equivalent conditions. In the extreme case of inclusions that trap mostly the vapor phase (i.e., CO₂–H₂O fluid inclusions containing trapped melt), degassing of CO₂ from the melt is negligible. In the latter scenario, the large fraction of vapor enclosed in the MI during trapping essentially serves as a buffer, preventing post-entrapment modification of volatile concentrations in the melt. Hence, the glass phase within such heterogeneously entrapped, vapor-rich MI records the volatile concentrations of the melt at the time of trapping. These numerical modeling results suggest that heterogeneously entrapped MI containing large vapor bubbles represent amenable samples for constraining pre-eruptive volatile concentrations of subvolcanic melts.     

Using basic metrics to analyze high-resolution temperature data in the subsurface

Time-series temperature data can be summarized to provide valuable information on spatial variation in subsurface flow, using simple metrics. Such computationally light analysis is often discounted in favor of more complex models. However, this study demonstrates the merits of summarizing high-resolution temperature data, obtained from a fiber optic cable installation at several depths within a water delivery channel, into daily amplitudes and mean temperatures. These results are compared to fluid flux estimates from a one-dimensional (1D) advection-conduction model and to the results of a previous study that used a full three-dimensional (3D) model. At a depth of 0.1 m below the channel, plots of amplitude suggested areas of advective water movement (as confirmed by the 1D and 3D models). Due to lack of diurnal signal at depths below 0.1 m, mean temperature was better able to identify probable areas of water movement at depths of 0.25–0.5 m below the channel. The high density of measurements provided a 3D picture of temperature change over time within the study reach, and would be suitable for long-term monitoring in man-made environments such as constructed wetlands, recharge basins, and water-delivery channels, where a firm understanding of spatial and temporal variation in infiltration is imperative for optimal functioning.     

A Comparison of Hyporheic Transport at a Cross‐Vane Structure and Natural Riffle

While restoring hyporheic flowpaths has been cited as a benefit to stream restoration structures, little documentation exists confirming that constructed restoration structures induce comparable hyporheic exchange to natural stream features. This study compares a stream restoration structure (cross‐vane) to a natural feature (riffle) concurrently in the same stream reach using time‐lapsed electrical resistivity (ER) tomography. Using this hydrogeophysical approach, we were able to quantify hyporheic extent and transport beneath the cross‐vane structure and the riffle. We interpret from the geophysical data that the cross‐vane and the natural riffle induced spatially and temporally unique hyporheic extent and transport, and the cross‐vane created both spatially larger and temporally longer hyporheic flowpaths than the natural riffle. Tracer from the 4.67‐h injection was detected along flowpaths for 4.6 h at the cross‐vane and 4.2 h at the riffle. The spatial extent of the hyporheic zone at the cross‐vane was 12% larger than that at the riffle. We compare ER results of this study to vertical fluxes calculated from temperature profiles and conclude significant differences in the interpretation of hyporheic transport from these different field techniques. Results of this study demonstrate a high degree of heterogeneity in transport metrics at both the cross‐vane and the riffle and differences between the hyporheic flowpath networks at the two different features. Our results suggest that restoration structures may be capable of creating sufficient exchange flux and timescales of transport to achieve the same ecological functions as natural features, but engineering of the physical and biogeochemical environment may be necessary to realize these benefits.     

Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO₂ emissions indicate that by the end of the 21^st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO₂ concentrations, sea level, and water temperature of 50–160%, 0.7–1.6 m, and 2–6 °C, respectively. Also likely are increases in precipitation amount (very likely in the winter and spring), precipitation intensity, intensity of tropical and extratropical cyclones (though their frequency may decrease), and sea-level variability. The greatest uncertainty is associated with changes in annual streamflow, though it is likely that winter and spring flows will increase. Climate change alone will cause the Bay to function very differently in the future. Likely changes include: (1) an increase in coastal flooding and submergence of estuarine wetlands; (2) an increase in salinity variability on many time scales; (3) an increase in harmful algae; (4) an increase in hypoxia; (5) a reduction of eelgrass, the dominant submerged aquatic vegetation in the Bay; and (6) altered interactions among trophic levels, with subtropical fish and shellfish species ultimately being favored in the Bay. The magnitude of these changes is sensitive to the CO₂ emission trajectory, so that actions taken now to reduce CO₂ emissions will reduce climate impacts on the Bay. Research needs include improved precipitation and streamflow projections for the Bay watershed and whole-system monitoring, modeling, and process studies that can capture the likely non-linear responses of the Chesapeake Bay system to climate variability, climate change, and their interaction with other anthropogenic stressors.     

The Kelvin-Helmholtz instability on the magnetopause

Conditions for the development of Kelvin-Helmholtz (K-H) waves on the magnetopause have been known for more than 15 years; more recently, spacecraft observations have stimulated further examination of the properties of K-H waves. For amagnetopause with no boundary layer, two different modes of surface waves have been identified and their properties have been investigated for various assumed orientations of magnetic field and flow velocity vectors. The power radiated into the magnetosphere from the velocity shear at the boundary has been estimated. Other calculations have focused on the consequences of finite thickness boundary layers, both uniform and non-uniform. The boundary layer is found to modify the wave modes present at the magnetopause and to yield a criterion for the wavelength of the fastest growing surface waves. The paper concludes by questioning the extent to which the inferences from boundary layer models are model dependent and identifies areas where further work is needed or anticipated.