Precipitation trends using in-situ and gridded datasets

Six in situ precipitation time series of varying time periods in the northwestern region and the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) v6 0.5° monthly dataset (1901–2010) were statistically examined for monotonic trends in Trinidad. The Pettit test was used to investigate the abrupt changes in the mean while the Mann–Kendall test was employed to assess the monotonic trends. It was found that three in situ stations and the six grids experienced abrupt changes in the rainfall patterns and that there was an apparent shift in the seasons. In addition, for five out of the six in situ stations no monotonic change was detected in the monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall patterns. Gradual decreases were detected in the calculated weighted area average for five stations, the GPCCv6 dataset and St. Ann’s time series. The GPCCv6 data indicated that the dry season in the southern Trinidad is becoming drier. Results also suggested that the range between the greatest and lowest recorded rainfall values for some months have increased while others decreased. The gridded dataset appears to give a good representation of the dry season (January to May) rainfall compared with the wet season (June to December) and was found to be negatively biased for the north-western region but may not necessarily be so for the entire island. The results suggested that in the north-western region mirco-climates may exist. It is recommended that further investigations are needed using in situ data.     

Accuracy assessment of georectified aerial photographs: Implications for measuring lateral channel movement in a GIS

Aerial photographs are commonly used to measure planform river channel change. We investigated the sources and implications of georectification error in the measurement of lateral channel movement by testing how the number (6–30) and type (human versus natural landscape features) of ground-control points (GCPs) and the order of the transformation polynomial (first-, second-, and third-order) affected the spatial accuracy of a typical georectified aerial photograph. Error was assessed using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the GCPs as well as error in 31 independent test points. The RMSE and the mean and median values of test-point errors were relatively insensitive to the number of GCPs above eight, but the upper range of test-point errors showed marked improvement (i.e., the number of extreme errors was reduced) as more GCPs were used for georectification. Using more GCPs thus improved overall georectification accuracy, but this improvement was not indicated by the RMSE, suggesting that independent test-points located in key areas of interest should be used in addition to RSME to evaluate georectification error.The order of the transformation polynomial also influenced test-point accuracy; the second-order polynomial function yielded the best result for the terrain of the study area. GCP type exerted a less consistent influence on test-point accuracy, suggesting that although hard-edged points (e.g., roof corners) are favored as GCPs, some soft-edged points (e.g., trees) may be used without adding significant error. Based upon these results, we believe that aerial photos of a floodplain landscape similar to that of our study can be consistently georectified to an accuracy of approximately ± 5 m, with 10% chance of greater error. The implications of georectification error for measuring lateral channel movement are demonstrated with a multiple buffer analysis, which documents the inverse relationship between the size of the buffers applied to two channel centerlines and the magnitude of change detected between them. This study demonstrates the importance of using an independent test-point analysis in addition to the RSME to evaluate and treat locational error in channel change studies.     

Environmental controls on 10Be‐based catchment‐averaged denudation rates along the western margin of the Peruvian Andes

We present ¹⁰Be‐based basin‐averaged denudation rates for the entire western margin of the Peruvian Andes. Denudation rates range from c. 9 mm ka^?1 to 190 mm ka^?1 and are related neither to the subduction of the Nazca plate nor to the current seismicity along the Pacific coast and the occurrence of raised Quaternary marine terraces. Therefore, we exclude a tectonic control on denudation on a millennial time‐scale. Instead, we explain >60% of the observed denudation rates with a model where erosion rates increase either with mean basin slope angles or with mean annual water discharge. These relationships suggest a strong environmental control on denudation.     

Hidden Components in Tropical Seascapes: Deep-Estuary Habitats Support Unique Fish Assemblages

Tropical coastal seascapes are biodiverse and highly productive systems composed of an interacting mix of habitats. They provide crucial ecosystem services that support people’s livelihoods, yet key components of these seascapes remain unstudied. We know little about the deep (>2 m) subtidal areas of tropical estuaries, because, due to gear restrictions, there have been no detailed studies of the habitats they contain and the fish that use them. Consequently, potentially important functions and linkages with surrounding habitats remain unknown. Using unbaited videos, an approach capable of sampling the full breadth of benthic habitats and whole fish assemblages, we investigated patterns of fish occupancy of the deep subtidal habitats (2–20 m) in one of Australia’s largest tropical estuaries. We identified 19 taxa not previously recorded from estuaries of tropical eastern Australia, along with 36 previously identified estuary taxa. Three recognisable fish assemblages were associated with distinct benthic habitat types: open bottom fine sediment, seagrass and structurally complex rocky areas. In deep water, habitats often overlooked in shallow water become important, and there are sharp differences in habitat function. Deep subtidal habitats are potentially an important zone for direct interaction between estuary and marine fauna, with a range of consequences for intertidal habitat use and nursery ground functioning. The interface between marine areas and the shallow-water estuary may be richer and more complex than previously recognised.     

Response of Nebraska Sand Hills Natural Vegetation to Drought, Fire, Grazing, and Plant Functional Type Shifts as Simulated by the Century Model

The Nebraska Sand Hills exist in a semi-arid climatic environment and the land surface is grassland growing on sandy soils. These soils have been periodically active throughout the Holocene, but are currently stabilized by the vegetation. However, a shift in climate could cause grassland death and eventual sand dune remobilization. Our studies used the CENTURY nutrient cycling and ecosystem model to investigate the impacts of drought, plant functional type, fire, grazing, and erosion on Nebraska Sand Hills vegetation and dune stability. Fire and grazing alone had little impact on the vegetation, but when combined with mild drought, biomass decreased. Overall biomass increased if one plant functional type was allowed to dominate the ecosystem. Addition of as little as 1 mm of erosion per year under current climate conditions decreases vegetation as much as a drought 20 percent drier than the worst of the 1930s drought years in Nebraska.     

Analysis of climate policy targets under uncertainty

Although policymaking in response to the climate change threat is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions paths developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. The resulting uncertainty in temperature change and other impacts under these targets is used to illustrate three insights not obtainable from deterministic analyses: that the reduction of extreme temperature changes under emissions constraints is greater than the reduction in the median reduction; that the incremental gain from tighter constraints is not linear and depends on the target to be avoided; and that comparing median results across models can greatly understate the uncertainty in any single model.     

Molecular characterization of dissolved organic matter in pore water of continental shelf sediments

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) in sediment pore water is a complex molecular mixture reflecting various sources and biogeochemical processes. In order to constrain those sources and processes, molecular variations of pore water DOM in surface sediments from the NW Iberian shelf were analyzed by ultrahigh-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS) and compared to river and marine water column DOM. Weighted average molecular element ratios of oxygen to carbon ((O/C)_wa) and hydrogen to carbon ((H/C)_wa) provided general information about DOM sources. DOM in local rivers was more oxygenated ((O/C)_wa 0.52) and contained less hydrogen ((H/C)_wa 1.15) than marine pore water DOM (mean (O/C)_wa 0.50, mean (H/C)_wa 1.26). The relative abundance of specific compound groups, such as highly oxygenated aromatic compounds or nitrogen-bearing compounds with low H/C ratios, correspond to a high concentration of lignin phenols (160 μg/g sediment dry weight) and a high TOC/TN ratio (13.3) in the sedimentary organic matter and were therefore assigned to terrestrial sources. The lower degree of unsaturation and a higher relative abundance of nitrogen-bearing compounds in the pore water DOM reflected microbial activity within the sediment. One sampling site on the shelf with a high sediment accumulation, and a humic-rich river sample showed a wide range of sulfur compounds in the DOM, accompanied by a higher abundance of lipid biomarkers for sulfate-reducing bacteria, probably indicating early diagenetic sulfurization of organic matter.     

High-levels of microplastic pollution in a large,remote, mountain lake

Despite the large and growing literature on microplastics in the ocean, little information exists on microplastics in freshwater systems. This study is the first to evaluate the abundance, distribution, and composition of pelagic microplastic pollution in a large, remote, mountain lake. We quantified pelagic microplastics and shoreline anthropogenic debris in Lake Hovsgol, Mongolia. With an average microplastic density of 20,264 particles km⁻², Lake Hovsgol is more heavily polluted with microplastics than the more developed Lakes Huron and Superior in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Fragments and films were the most abundant microplastic types; no plastic microbeads and few pellets were observed. Household plastics dominated the shoreline debris and were comprised largely of plastic bottles, fishing gear, and bags. Microplastic density decreased with distance from the southwestern shore, the most populated and accessible section of the park, and was distributed by the prevailing winds. These results demonstrate that without proper waste management, low-density populations can heavily pollute freshwater systems with consumer plastics.