Physics‐based probabilistic seismic hazard and loss assessment in large urban areas: A simplified application to Istanbul

A set of 3D physics‐based numerical simulations (PBS) of possible earthquakes scenarios in Istanbul along the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey) is considered in this article to provide a comprehensive example of application of PBS to probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and loss assessment in a large urban area. To cope with the high‐frequency (HF) limitations of PBS, numerical results are first postprocessed by a recently introduced technique based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), providing broadband waveforms with a proper correlation of HF and low‐frequency (LF) portions of ground motion as well as a proper spatial correlation of peak values also at HF, that is a key feature for the seismic risk application at urban scale. Second, before application to PSHA, a statistical analysis of residuals is carried out to ensure that simulated results provide a set of realizations with a realistic within‐ and between‐event variability of ground motion. PBS results are then applied in a PSHA framework, adopting both the “generalized attenuation function” (GAF) approach, and a novel “footprint” (FP)‐based approach aiming at a convenient and direct application of PBS into PSHA. PSHA results from both approaches are then compared with those obtained from a more standard application of PSHA with empirical ground motion models. Finally, the probabilistic loss assessment of an extended simplified portfolio of buildings is investigated, comparing the results obtained adopting the different approaches: (i) GMPE, (ii) GAF, and (iii) FP. Only FP turned out to have the capability to account for the specific features of source and propagation path, while preserving the proper physically based spatial correlation characteristics, as required for a reliable loss estimate on a building portfolio spatially distributed over a large urban area.     

Distinction between amorphous and healed planar deformation features in shocked quartz using composite color scanning electron microscope cathodoluminescence (SEM‐CL) imaging

Planar deformation features (PDFs) in quartz are one of the most reliable and most widely used forms of evidence for hypervelocity impact. PDFs can be identified in scanning electron microscope cathodoluminescence (SEM‐CL) images, but not all PDFs show the same CL behavior: there are nonluminescent and red luminescent PDFs. This study aims to explain the origin of the different CL emissions in PDFs. Focused ion beam (FIB) thin foils were prepared of specific sample locations selected in composite color SEM‐CL images and were analyzed in a transmission electron microscope (TEM). The FIB preparation technique allowed a direct, often one‐to‐one correlation between the CL images and the defect structure observed in TEM. This correlation shows that composite color SEM‐CL imaging allows distinction between amorphous PDFs on one hand and healed PDFs and basal Brazil twins on the other: nonluminescent PDFs are amorphous, while healed PDFs and basal Brazil twins are red luminescent, with a dominant emission peak at 650 nm. We suggest that the red luminescence is the result of preferential beam damage along dislocations, fluid inclusions, and twin boundaries. Furthermore, a high‐pressure phase (possibly stishovite) in PDFs can be detected in color SEM‐CL images by its blue luminescence.     

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy)

In phenological studies, plant development and its relationship with meteorological conditions are considered in order to investigate the influence of climatic changes on the characteristics of many crop species. In this work, the impact of climate change on the flowering of the olive tree (Olea europaea L.) in Calabria, southern Italy, has been studied. Olive is one of the most important plant species in the Mediterranean area and, at the same time, Calabria is one of the most representative regions of this area, both geographically and climatically. The work is divided into two main research activities. First, the behaviour of olive tree in Calabria and the influence of temperature on phenological phases of this crop are investigated. An aerobiological method is used to determine the olive flowering dates through the analysis of pollen data collected in three experimental fields for an 11-year study period (1999–2009). Second, the study of climate change in Calabria at high spatial and temporal resolution is performed. A dynamical downscaling procedure is applied for the regionalization of large-scale climate analysis derived from general circulation models for two representative climatic periods (1981–2000 and 2081–2100); the A2 IPCC scenario is used for future climate projections. The final part of this work is the integration of the results of the two research activities to predict the olive flowering variation for the future climatic conditions. In agreement with our previous works, we found a significant correlation between the phenological phases and temperature. For the twenty-first century, an advance of pollen season in Calabria of about 9?days, on average, is expected for each degree of temperature rise. From phenological model results, on the basis of future climate predictions over Calabria, an anticipation of maximum olive flowering between 10 and 34?days is expected, depending on the area. The results of this work are useful for adaptation and mitigation strategies, and for making concrete assessments about biological and environmental changes.     

The cool surfaces of binary near-Earth asteroids

Here we show results from thermal-infrared observations of km-sized binary near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). We combine previously published thermal properties for NEAs with newly derived values for three binary NEAs. The η value derived from the near-Earth asteroid thermal model (NEATM) for each object is then used to estimate an average thermal inertia for the population of binary NEAs and compared against similar estimates for the population of non-binaries. We find that these objects have, in general, surface temperatures cooler than the average values for non-binary NEAs as suggested by elevated η values. We discuss how this may be evidence of higher-than-average surface thermal inertia. This latter physical parameter is a sensitive indicator of the presence or absence of regolith: bodies covered with fine regolith, such as the Earth’s moon, have low thermal inertia, whereas a surface with little or no regolith displays high thermal inertia. Our results are suggestive of a binary formation mechanism capable of altering surface properties, possibly removing regolith: an obvious candidate is the YORP effect.We present also newly determined sizes and geometric visible albedos derived from thermal-infrared observations of three binary NEAs: (5381) Sekhmet, (153591) 2001 SN₂₆₃, and (164121) 2003 YT₁. The diameters of these asteroids are 1.41 ± 0.21 km, 1.56 ± 0.31 km, and 2.63 ± 0.40 km, respectively. Their albedos are 0.23 ± 0.13, 0.24 ± 0.16, and 0.048 ± 0.015, respectively.     

Determination of physical properties of the Asteroid (41) Daphne from interferometric observations in the thermal infrared

We describe interferometric observations of the Asteroid (41) Daphne in the thermal infrared obtained with the Mid-Infrared Interferometric Instrument (MIDI) and the Auxiliary Telescopes (ATs) of the European Southern Observatory (ESO) Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI). We derived the size and the surface thermal properties of (41) Daphne by means of a thermophysical model (TPM), which is used for the interpretation of interferometric data for the first time. From our TPM analysis, we derived a volume equivalent diameter for (41) Daphne of 189 km, using a non-convex 3-D shape model derived from optical lightcurves and adaptive optics images (B. Carry, private communication). On the other hand, when using the convex shape of Kaasalainen et al. (Kaasalainen, M., Mottola, S., Fulchignoni, M. [2002]. Icarus 159, 369-395) in our TPM analysis, the resulting volume equivalent diameter of (41) Daphne is between 194 and 209 km, depending on the surface roughness. The shape of the asteroid is used as an a priori information in our TPM analysis. No attempt is made to adjust the shape to the data. Only the size of the asteroid and its thermal parameters such as, albedo, thermal inertia and roughness are adjusted to the data. We estimated our model systematic uncertainty to be of 4% and of 7% on the determination of the asteroid volume equivalent diameter depending on whether the non-convex or the convex shape is used, respectively. In terms of thermal properties, we derived a value of the surface thermal inertia smaller than 50 J m⁻² s^−0.5 K⁻¹ and preferably in the range between 0 and ∼30 J m⁻² s^−0.5 K⁻¹. Our TPM analysis also shows that Daphne has a moderate macroscopic surface roughness.     

The lunar gravity mission MAGIA: preliminary design and performances

The importance of an accurate model of the Moon gravity field has been assessed for future navigation missions orbiting and/or landing on the Moon, in order to use our natural satellite as an intermediate base for next solar system observations and exploration as well as for lunar resources mapping and exploitation. One of the main scientific goals of MAGIA mission, whose Phase A study has been recently funded by the Italian Space Agency (ASI), is the mapping of lunar gravitational anomalies, and in particular those on the hidden side of the Moon, with an accuracy of 1 mGal RMS at lunar surface in the global solution of the gravitational field up to degree and order 80. MAGIA gravimetric experiment is performed into two phases: the first one, along which the main satellite shall perform remote sensing of the Moon surface, foresees the use of Precise Orbit Determination (POD) data available from ground tracking of the main satellite for the determination of the long wavelength components of gravitational field. Improvement in the accuracy of POD results are expected by the use of ISA, the Italian accelerometer on board the main satellite. Additional gravitational data from recent missions, like Kaguya/Selene, could be used in order to enhance the accuracy of such results. In the second phase the medium/short wavelength components of gravitational field shall be obtained through a low-to-low (GRACE-like) Satellite-to-Satellite Tracking (SST) experiment. POD data shall be acquired during the whole mission duration, while the SST data shall be available after the remote sensing phase, when the sub-satellite shall be released from the main one and both satellites shall be left in a free-fall dynamics in the gravity field of the Moon. SST range-rate data between the two satellites shall be measured through an inter-satellite link with accuracy compliant with current state of art space qualified technology. SST processing and gravitational anomalies retrieval shall benefit from a second ISA accelerometer on the sub-satellite in order to decouple lunar gravitational signal from other accelerations. Experiment performance analysis shows that the stated scientific requirements can be achieved with a low mass and low cost sub-satellite, with a SST gravimetric mission of just few months.     

基于BP神经网络技术的西北太平洋热带气旋年频数预测

利用NCEP月平均的500 hPa高度场和海表温度场分析资料、中国气象局台风年鉴(1949—1988年)和热带气旋年鉴(1989—2008年)资料,采用BP(神经网络模式)对发生在西北太平洋上的热带气旋年频数进行预测。对隐层节点数进行普查,采用试错法,并综合考虑模式精度及迭代次数,得到了相对较优的神经网络预测模式。利用选用的模式来预测热带气旋年频数,给出了具体的预测值及具有范围的预测值,8年独立样本检验结果表明有6/8的预测值处于或接近相应的预测范围内。     

Thermal inertia of main belt asteroids smaller than 100 km from IRAS data

Recent works have shown that the thermal inertia of km-sized near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) is more than 2 orders of magnitude higher than that of main belt asteroids (MBAs) with sizes (diameters) between 200 and 1000 km. This confirms the idea that large MBAs, over hundreds millions of years, have developed a fine and thick thermally insulating regolith layer, responsible for the low values of their thermal inertia, whereas km-sized asteroids, having collisional lifetimes of only some millions years, have less regolith, and consequently a larger surface thermal inertia.Because it is believed that regolith on asteroids forms as a result of impact processes, a better knowledge of asteroid thermal inertia and its correlation with size, taxonomic type, and density can be used as an important constraint for modeling of impact processes on asteroids. However, our knowledge of asteroids’ thermal inertia values is still based on few data points with NEAs covering the size range 0.1-20 km and MBAs that .Here, we use IRAS infrared measurements to estimate the thermal inertia values of MBAs with diameters and known shapes and spin vector, filling an important size gap between the largest MBAs and the km-sized NEAs. An update to the inverse correlation between thermal inertia and diameter is presented. For some asteroids thermophysical modeling allowed us to discriminate between the two still possible spin vector solutions derived from optical lightcurve inversion. This is important for (720) Bohlinia: our preferred solution was predicted to be the correct one by Vokrouhlický et al. [2003. The vector alignments of asteroid spins by thermal torques. Nature 425, 147-151] just on theoretical grounds.     

Kolmogorov and Nekhoroshev theory for the problem of three bodies

We investigate the long time stability in Nekhoroshev’s sense for the Sun– Jupiter–Saturn problem in the framework of the problem of three bodies. Using computer algebra in order to perform huge perturbation expansions we show that the stability for a time comparable with the age of the universe is actually reached, but with some strong truncations on the perturbation expansion of the Hamiltonian at some stage. An improvement of such results is currently under investigation.