城市内涝灾害受灾人口评估方法与实证研究：以哈尔滨市道里区为例

城市内涝灾害频发,对居民生命安全造成严重威胁,为提高城市内涝灾害受灾人口评估精度,提出一种更为精确的受灾人口评估方法。以哈尔滨市道里区为研究区,以城市内涝灾害受灾人口为研究对象,运用一、二维非恒定流为主控方程,构建城市内涝数值模拟模型,并结合受灾人口分布特点,综合构建基于土地利用的人口随时间变化的计算模型。实现在模拟内涝灾害影响范围基础上,利用受灾人口计算模型提取白天与夜晚受灾人口分布情况。结果表明：研究区在百年一遇降雨情景下,有25条街道会发生不同程度积水,积水深度范围值为0.10~1.42 m;此级别内涝灾害在白天11条街道受灾人口数量最大值达到3 500人,夜晚10条街道受灾人口数量最大值为720人。     

Exploring Spatially Non-stationary Relationships in the Determinants of Mineralization in 3D Geological Space

Exploring the spatial relationships between various geological features and mineralization is not only conducive to understanding the genesis of ore deposits but can also help to guide mineral exploration by providing predictive mineral maps. However, most current methods assume spatially constant determinants of mineralization and therefore have limited applicability to detecting possible spatially non-stationary relationships between the geological features and the mineralization. In this paper, the spatial variation between the distribution of mineralization and its determining factors is described for a case study in the Dingjiashan Pb–Zn deposit, China. A local regression modeling technique, geological weighted regression (GWR), was leveraged to study the spatial non-stationarity in the 3D geological space. First, ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression was applied, the redundancy and significance of the controlling factors were tested, and the spatial dependency in Zn and Pb ore grade measurements was confirmed. Second, GWR models with different kernel functions in 3D space were applied, and their results were compared to the OLS model. The results show a superior performance of GWR compared with OLS and a significant spatial non-stationarity in the determinants of ore grade. Third, a non-stationarity test was performed. The stationarity index and the Monte Carlo stationarity test demonstrate the non-stationarity of all the variables throughout the area. Finally, the influences of the degree of non-stationary of all controlling factors on mineralization are discussed. The existence of significant non-stationarity of mineral ore determinants in 3D space opens up an exciting avenue for research into the prediction of underground ore bodies.

     

秦皇岛港区春、夏和秋季底栖海藻的研究

报道秦皇岛港区底栖海藻的群落结构、季节变化、生物量及优势种类等。通过４次定性采样指出：４月和６月的种类数高于８月和１０月，群落组成都以红藻类为优势。平均生物量分布以金山咀最高，灯塔最低，各采样点的优势种是新煤码头为绿藻类的孔石莼、肠浒苔和尾孢藻；灯塔为红藻类的珊瑚藻、鸭毛藻及绿藻类的孔石莼和刺松藻，金山咀为孔石莼、刺松藻、萱藻和蜈蚣藻。     

潮汐调和分析的一种算法

本文在常规潮汐调和分析方法的基础上，提出了一种由高低潮资料进行潮汐分析的算法。具体计算表明，该算法与现今通用的常规算法（即等间隔最小二乘法）相比，既可大大减少所需原始样本量，在相同记录长度内，是常规算法的三分之一还少，同时减少样本处理的前期工作量；又能保证潮位拟合的精度和预报的可信度，两者精度相当，结果一致。该算法原理简单、实用有效，对于局部样本缺损较易处理，具有实际应用价值。     

温度和体重对花尾胡椒鲷幼鱼最大摄食量的影响

研究了花尾胡椒鲷幼鱼的最大摄食量与温度和体重的关系。花尾胡椒鲷幼鱼的最大摄食量与体重呈正相关 ,二者的关系为 :Cmax=1 5 95 .3W0 .6 87(Cmax:最大摄食量 ,J/d ;W :体重 ,g)。最大摄食量随温度的变化情况为 :在实验温度为 2 2～ 2 8℃范围内 ,二者呈正相关 ,超过 2 8℃之后呈负相关。最大摄食率与体重的相关关系为 :Rmax=1 5 0 7.6W-0 .313[(Rmax:最大摄食率 ,J/(d·g) ]。采用回归分析 ,建立了由温度和体重预测该种鱼的最大摄食量和最大摄食率的模型 :Cmax=2 86 790e-0 .90 4ln(T3-77.738T2 1985 .185T -16 42 9.710 ) W0 .6 16 　n =1 6 ,r =0 .994Rmax=0 .887e1.2 6 4ln(-T3 78.0 6 1T2 -2 0 0 3.397T 172 36 .5 2 0 ) W-0 .2 83　n =1 6 ,r=0 .978     

1998年夏季南海水团分析

根据 1 998年夏季“南海季风试验 ( SCSMEX)”期间所获的 CTD资料 ,使用系统聚类、Fuzzy模式聚类、Bayes判别分析和 Fuzzy分析等水团分析方法 ,对南海水体的结构和水团配置状况等进行了分析 ,划出了南海存在的 9个主要水团 ,并对各水团的温、盐度特征进行了初析。在调查期间 ,南海本地水 (南海水 )几乎控制了整个调查海区 ,而黑潮水仅出现在台湾岛的西南海域 ;海水强烈混合发生在吕宋海峡附近 ;在中南半岛以东和吕宋岛以西海域 ,表层水明显下沉 ;在南海东南部可能有来自苏禄海的海水 ,其温、盐度特征类似于吕宋海峡中的黑潮水     

台湾岛以东海域束毛藻种群的组成与分布

分别对1996年5月和1997年7月台湾岛以东黑潮及邻近海域51个采样站位的87份网采浮游植物进行了分析,总结了束毛藻种群的物种构成和丰度分布特征,并初步探讨了水动力条件、温盐、营养盐及其他元素对束毛藻生长及分布的影响.结果表明,调查区的束毛藻种群由铁氏束毛藻(Trichodesmium thiebautii)、汉氏束毛藻(Trichodesmium hildebrandtii)和红海束毛藻(Trichodesmium erythraeum)组成,前者分布最为普遍,检出率100%,丰度最大.1996年5月束毛藻平均藻丝体密度为44.55伊102 filaments/m3,铁氏束毛藻占91%,在吕宋海峡密集,总体呈现西南高,东北低的分布态势.1997年7月束毛藻平均藻丝体密度为152.72伊102 filaments/m3,铁氏束毛藻占99%,除吕宋海峡外,台湾东北部海域为次高值区,总体呈现西南高,中部和东部低的分布态势.较之邻近海区结果,台湾岛以东黑潮及邻近海域的束毛藻平均藻丝体密度高于太平洋赤道热带海域、南黄海和东海陆架区、东海产卵场,低于台湾海峡西侧20 m 以浅和东海低氧区.在台湾岛以东海域,束毛藻的丰度分布由其特定的地理位置和黑潮流向所决定,高温高盐的黑潮水系利于束毛藻的增殖,束毛藻的丰度分布与 Fe、P 等化学因子的关系有待进一步寻找证据.     

长江口悬沙动力特征与输运模式

本项研究用ADCP在长江河口进行高频、高分辨率三维流速和声学浊度的定点观测,通过对定点站位潮周期内的悬沙浓度、流速和盐度的分析,计算悬沙输运率;悬沙输运机制分析表明平流作用、斯托克斯漂移效应在悬沙输运中占据主导地位.此外,从河口内向河口外,潮周期内的水动力特征与悬沙净输运具有明显的地域性差异,主要表现在悬沙输送的贡献因子、盐度的垂向混合和分布特征、垂向流速等方面.在拦门沙下游和口外地区,悬沙均向西、北方向输送,而拦门沙上游则向东、南方向输送.这种悬沙输运格局,对于长江口拦门沙及附近最大浑浊带的形成有着重要的作用.     

Tide-induced Lagrangian residual velocity and dynamic analysis based on field observations in the inner Xiangshan Bay,China

In the Xiangshan Bay at the east coast of China, coastal marine pollution is conspicuous and severe in recent years. As transport of the pollutants is closely related to the coastal circulation, there is a great practical significance to investigate the circulation in this area. In this work, the surface pattern and vertical profiles of Lagrangian residual velocity (LRV) were studied based on field observation data from the inner Xiangshan Bay. By tracking GPS-GPRS drifters’ trajectories, the surface LRV pattern is going out in the central deep trough and flowing inwards near the shoreside. Combined with data from two mooring stations, vertical profiles of LRV is flowing out at surface and flowing in at the bottom, consistent with the gravitational circulation induced by baroclinic effects at the estuary. However, according to the diagnostic analysis, the main mechanism driving the residual current is barotropic rather than baroclinic. The LRV equation is controlled by the tidally-averaged barotropic pressure gradient force, tidal body force and tidally-averaged turbulent stress, while the tidally-averaged baroclinic pressure gradient force is one order of magnitude less than other forces. Additionally, the tidally mean eddy viscosity coefficient which is used in the expression of tidally-averaged turbulent stress might be not adequate and requires further studies.     

印度尼西亚北苏拉威西蓝碧海峡浮游动物种类组成及分布

Based on oceanographic survey data in June 2012 in the Lembeh Strait, the zooplankton ecological characteristics such as species composition, individual abundance, dominant species and distribution were analyzed. The results showed that 183 species(including 4 sp.) had been recognized, most of them belonged to copepoda.Cnidaria followed with 43 species(including 1 sp.) were identified. The average abundance of zooplankton was(150.47±58.91) ind./m~3. As to the horizontal distribution, the abundance of the zooplankton was higher in the southern waters than in the northern waters. The dominant species in the study area were Lensia subtiloides,Sagitta enflata, Lucifer intermedius, Oikopleura rufescens, Diphyes chamissoni, Creseis acicula, Subeucalanus subcrassus, Temora discaudata, Aglaura hemistoma, Doliolum denticulatum, Canthocalanus pauper, Oikopleura longicauda and Nanomia bijuga. Zooplankton biodiversity indexes were higher in study area than previous study in the other regions. The findings from this study provide important baseline information for future research and monitoring programs.