Are modern metaheuristics successful in calibrating simple conceptual rainfall–runoff models?

In recent years sampling approaches have been used more widely than optimization algorithms to find parameters of conceptual rainfall–runoff models, but the difficulty of calibration of such models remains in dispute. The problem of finding a set of optimal parameters for conceptual rainfall–runoff models is interpreted differently in various studies, ranging from simple to relatively complex and difficult. In many papers, it is claimed that novel calibration approaches, so-called metaheuristics, outperform the older ones when applied to this task, but contradictory opinions are also plentiful. The present study aims at calibration of two simple lumped conceptual hydrological models, HBV and GR4J, by means of a large number of metaheuristic algorithms. The tests are performed on four catchments located in regions with relatively similar climatic conditions, but on different continents. The comparison shows that, although parameters found may somehow differ, the performance criteria achieved with simple lumped models calibrated by various metaheuristics are very similar and differences are insignificant from the hydrological point of view. However, occasionally some algorithms find slightly better solutions than those found by the vast majority of methods. This means that the problem of calibration of simple lumped HBV or GR4J models may be deceptive from the optimization perspective, as the vast majority of algorithms that follow a common evolutionary principle of survival of the fittest lead to sub-optimal solutions.     

Origin of natural waters and gases within the Upper Carboniferous coal-bearing and autochthonous Miocene strata in South-Western part of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin,Poland

The molecular and stable isotope compositions of coalbed gases from the Upper Carboniferous strata and natural gases accumulated within the autochthonous Upper Miocene Skawina Formation of the D?bowiec-Simoradz gas deposit were determined, as well as the chemical and stable isotope compositions of waters from the Skawina Formation and waters at the top of the Upper Carboniferous strata of the Kaczyce Ridge (the abandoned “Morcinek” coal mine) in the South-Western part of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. Two genetic types of natural gases within the Upper Carboniferous coal-bearing strata were identified: thermogenic (CH₄, small amounts of higher gaseous hydrocarbons, and CO₂) and microbial (CH₄, very small amounts of ethane, and CO₂). Thermogenic gases were generated during the bituminous stage of coalification and completed at the end of the Variscan orogeny. Degassing (desorption) of thermogenic gases began at the end of late Carboniferous until the late Miocene time-period and extended to the present-day. This process took place in the Upper Carboniferous strata up to a depth of about 550 m under the sealing Upper Miocene cover. A primary accumulation zone of indigenous, thermogenic gases is present below the degassing zone. Up to 200 m depth from the top of the Upper Carboniferous strata, within the weathered complex, an accumulation zone of secondary, microbial gas occurs. Waters within these strata are mainly of meteoric origin of the infiltration period just before the last sea transgression in the late Miocene and partly of marine origin having migrated from the Upper Miocene strata. Then, both methanogenic archaebacteria and their nutrients were transported by meteoric water into the near-surface Carboniferous strata where the generated microbial CH₄ saturated coal seams. Waters within the Miocene strata of the D?bowiec-Simoradz and Zab?ocie are of marine origin, and natural gases accumulated within autochthonous Miocene strata of the D?bowiec-Simoradz gas deposit were most probably generated by microbial processes of on organic matter dispersed within the strata, though some contribution of gases migrating from the Carboniferous coal-bearing strata cannot be excluded.     

Differences in the abiotic parameters of water in coastal lakes in the light of the EU water framework directive: An example of the Polish southern Baltic coast

Coastal lakes have a specific hydrological regime determined by the influence of sea and inland water and the local hydrographic conditions. There are several problems concerning the protection and assessment of water quality of these bodies. The most important features differentiating coastal lakes from other lakes are: high salinity, a wide range of seasonal and short-term water quality changes, and specific aquatic ecosystems adapted to these conditions. These matters have not been sufficiently taken into account in the existing classifications and typologies of lakes in Poland. The problem has not been solved by the establishment of the adequate reference conditions and new guidelines for the classification of water status (which are being prepared according to the Common Strategy for the Implementation of the Water Framework Directive) regarding inland surface waters (rivers and lakes) and marine waters (coastal and transitional). An important issue is to define criteria which would help to distinguish all those hydrographic objects and to establish water quality standards for them.     

Labile and stabile soil organic carbon fractions in surface horizons of mountain soils–relationships with vegetation and altitude

Global and local climate changes could disturb carbon sequestration and carbon stocks in forest soils. Thus, it is important to characterize the stability of soil organic matter and the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) fractions in forest ecosystems. This study had two aims: (1) to evaluate the effects of altitude and vegetation on the content of labile and stabile forms of organic carbon in the mountain soils; and (2) to assess the impact of the properties of soil organic matter on the SOC pools under changing environmental conditions. The studies were conducted in the Karkonosze Mountains (SW Poland, Central Europe). The content of the most labile fraction of carbon (dissolved organic carbon, DOC) decreases with altitude, but the content of fulvic acids (FA), clearly increases in the zone above 1000 m asl, while the stabile fraction (humins, non-hydrolyzing carbon) significantly decreases. A higher contribution of stabile forms was found in soils under coniferous forests (Norway spruce), while a smaller - under deciduous forests (European beech) and on grasslands. The expected climate change and the ongoing land use transformations in the zone above 1000 m asl may lead to a substantial increase in the stable humus fraction (mainly of a non-hydrolyzing carbon) and an increase in the SOC pools, even if humus acids are characterized by a lower maturity and greater mobility favorable to soil podzolization. In the lower zone (below 1000 m asl), a decrease in the most stable humus forms can be expected, accompanied by an increase of DOC contribution, which will result in a reduction in SOC pools. Overall, the expected prevailing (spatial) effect is a decreasing contribution of the most stable humus fractions, which will be associated with a reduction in the SOC pools in medium-high mountains of temperate zone of Central Europe.     

Low-temperature zircon growth related to hydrothermal alteration of siderite concretions in Mississippian shales, Scotland

Zircon occurs in voids and cracks in phosphatic coprolites enclosed in siderite concretions in Mississippian shales near Edinburgh, Scotland. The zircon formed during hydrothermal alteration of early-diagenetic concretions and occurs as spherical aggregates of prismatic crystals, sometimes radiating. Vitrinite reflectance measurements indicate temperatures of ~270°C for the zircon-bearing concretions and the host shales. Molecular parameter values based on dibenzothiophene and phenanthrene distribution and occurrence of di- and tetra-hydro-products of polycyclic aromatic compounds suggest that the rocks experienced relatively high-temperature aqueous conditions related to hydrothermal fluids, perhaps associated with neighboring mafic intrusions. The zircon was dissolved from the concretions, transported in fluids, and reprecipitated in voids. This is the first record of the precipitation of authigenic zircon in sedimentary rock as a new phase, not as outgrowths.     

Composition and origin of organic matter in surface sediments of Lake Sarbsko: A highly eutrophic and shallow coastal lake (northern Poland)

We present an organic geochemical study of surface sediments of Lake Sarbsko, a shallow coastal lake on the middle Polish Baltic coast. The aim was to provide evidence concerning the origin of the organic matter (OM) and its compositional diversity in surface deposits of this very productive, highly dynamic water body. The content and composition of the OM in the bottom sediments were investigated at 11 sampling stations throughout the lake basin. OM sources were assigned on the basis of bulk indicators [total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), δ¹³C_TOC and δ¹⁵N and extractable OM yield], biomarker composition of extractable OM and compound-specific C isotope signatures. The source characterization of autochthonous compounds was verified via phytoplankton analysis. The distribution of gaseous hydrocarbons in the sediments, as well as temporal changes in lake water pH, the concentration of DIC (dissolved inorganic carbon) and δ¹³C_DIC were used to trace OM decomposition.The sedimentary OM is composed mainly of well preserved phytoplankton compounds and shows minor spatial variability in composition. However, the presence of CH₄ and CO₂ in the bottom deposits provides evidence for microbial degradation of sedimentary OM. The transformation of organic compounds in surface, bottom and pore waters via oxidative processes influences carbonate equilibrium in the lake and seasonally favours precipitation or dissolution of CaCO₃.The data enhance our understanding of the relationships between the composition of sedimentary OM and environmental conditions within coastal ecosystems and shed light on the reliability of OM proxies for environmental reconstruction of coastal lakes.     

An approach to adaptation to climate changes in Poland

Adopted by COP 10 (Dec 1/CP.10) and approved by the MOP1, the Buenos Aires programme of adaptation and response measures opens doors to intensify preparations for expected climate change. By this decision the COP, requested the SBSTA to develop a structured 5-year programme of work of the SBSTA on the scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change. Consequently, the COP, by its decision 2/CP.11, adopted the “Five-year programme of work of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change” Finally during COP12 this programme was approved as “Nairobi Work Programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change”. This programme has fundamental significance not only for developing countries, but also for industrialized nations in which some sectors of the or social life are particularly vulnerable to climate change, specifically, inter alia EIT countries and new EU Member States. Further development of this adaptation programme economy should contain steps that provide optimum economic and social effectiveness, risk management, identification of vulnerable sectors and gaps in knowledge, preparation of a list of policy options, including an analysis of cost effectiveness, selection of the most effective policies, and a preparedness implementation plan. In Poland the preliminary adaptation programme covered agriculture, water management, and coastal zone management. For the time being, gaps in knowledge and preparedness measures have been identified. An estimation of possible impact on these areas was based on chosen GCMs, and sea level rise IPCC scenarios. In conclusion, it was stated that the results achieved should be seen as a first step forward and a more comprehensive study is necessary to update the results and cover other sectors of the economy, such as health protection, spatial planning, ecosystems and forestry, and to develop specific guidelines and recommendations for policy-makers.     

A high‐resolution Lateglacial and Holocene palaeoceanographic record from the Greenland Sea

We present an unprecedented multicentennial sediment record from the foot of Vesterisbanken Seamount, central Greenland Sea, covering the past 22.3 thousand years (ka). Based on planktic foraminiferal total abundances, species assemblages, and stable oxygen and carbon isotopes, the palaeoenvironments in this region of modern deepwater renewal were reconstructed. Results show that during the Last Glacial Maximum the area was affected by harsh polar conditions with only episodic improvements during warm summer seasons. Since 18 ka extreme freshwater discharges from nearby sources occurred, influencing the surface water environment. The last major freshwater event took place during the Younger Dryas. The onset of the Holocene was characterized by an improvement of environmental conditions suggesting warming and increasing ventilation of the upper water layers. The early Holocene saw a stronger Atlantic waters advection to the area, which began around 10.5 and ended quite rapidly at 5.5 ka, followed by the onset of Neoglacial cooling. Surface water ventilation reached a maximum in the middle Holocene. Around 3 ka the surface water stratification increased leading to subsequent amplification of the warming induced the North Atlantic Oscillation at 2 ka.