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长江中下游旱涝中期预报方法及其业务应用 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
介绍了双层多因子综合相似的长江中下游旱涝中期预报模型。该模型引入了具有明确动力学和热力学意义的地转西风动量经向输送和经向温度梯度诊断量,同时强调了西太平洋副热带高压对长江中下游夏季降水的关键作用,并考虑了对流层中、低层500hPa高度和850hPa温度的大尺度环流背景场。与过去业务应用的单层相似预报模型相比较,不仅物理意义和天气学含义明确,而且更符合对具有复杂动力和热力机制的降水预报的考虑。5年的预报试验和业务应用结果表明,该方法对长江中下游地区旱涝的中期趋势预报有较好的预报能力。 相似文献
64.
现场调查发现:古人在建造北响堂寺石窟3号窟时,至少运用了3点符合现代科学原理的方法和技术,其中包括效果良好的选址、洞窟斜墙“设计”和排水系统等。这对现代工程地质和岩石力学研究的发展具有一定借鉴作用。笔者从工程地质和岩石力学角度对其上述工程科学亮点进行了详细论述,对于斜墙“设计”的论证是借助于Flac-3D三维数值计算进行的。通过对斜墙开挖下石窟围岩关键部位的拉应力分布情况、剪应力的大小以及变形等的分析,表明斜墙“设计”可使围岩的应力条件得到多方面的改善,有利于石窟的稳定。 相似文献
65.
碳酸岩Sr、Nd、Pb 同位素地球化学研究评述 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
碳酸岩是出露相对较少的幔源岩石,其中Sr与Nd是研究地幔物质组成的主要对象之一。本文统计了世界上主要碳酸岩的锶、钕、铅同位素组成特征;研究显示,碳酸岩源区主要是洋岛玄武岩高U/Pb的HIMU端员和富集端员(EM1或EM2)的混合作用;此外大部分碳酸岩的锶、钕同位素落在大洋玄武岩范围内;这些均表明其成因与地慢柱有密切联系。碳酸岩及与之共生的硅酸岩的同源或独立源区模式部很难充分解释两者同位素组成特征,逭反映碳酸岩的演化模式涉及更复杂的过程。可能是俯冲作用使碳酸岩源区经历不同时间和程度的富集、亏损过程导致地幔源区成分不均一。 相似文献
66.
本文提出了一种基于GIS的补给潜力分析方法。在实例研究中,通过对地形、地表物质组成、包气带岩性、植被覆盖等因子建立的专题图层的叠加分析,确定了地下水的补给潜力分区,结合研究区含水层分布特征,综合确定了水源地的靶区和开采潜力区。研究表明,利用GIS确定研究区降雨入渗补给量是一种高效、直观、可行的方法。 相似文献
67.
Historical to up‐to‐date data of the minute variations in the solid Earth's rotation are subjected to a comprehensive time‐frequency wavelet analysis. The length‐of‐day for the period 1962–2012 confirms the presence of a prominent, robust 6‐year periodicity and reveals an anomalously strong 18.6‐year tidal oscillation as well as a ~13‐year quasi‐periodic signal. The polar‐motion excitation for the period 1900–2012 validates the existence of the ~26‐year Markowitz wobble and shows an ~8‐year quasi‐periodic signal, but no appreciable 18.6‐year periodicity. Although it is known that exchanges of angular momentum with the geophysical fluids are responsible for the rotational variations of the solid Earth, the exact physical mechanisms involved on interannual‐to‐decadal timescales are still far from understood. 相似文献
68.
Jiangsu has the most abundant tidal flat resources among China's coastal provinces.To ease the conflict between the growing population and shrinking usable land and to promote regional sustainable development,large-scale coastal reclamation development activities have been performed in Jiangsu Province since 1949.The present study has integrated multi-source remote sensing images during 1974 to 2012 by using a Multi-point Fast Marching Method(MFMM) to extract the Jiangsu coastal reclamation areas for different time periods.The temporal and spatial patterns of the extent and elevation of the reclamation areas were analysed in order to determine the unused potential for future reclamation.It will provide information necessary to support the development and construction of tidal flats in Jiangsu.Results show that:(1) the reclaimed tidal flats along the Jiangsu coast cover more than 19.86×104 hm2,of which 13.97×104 hm2 is located in Yancheng,4.84×104 hm2 in Nantong,and 1.05×104 hm2 in Lianyungang;(2) the average elevation of the reclaimed Jiangsu tidal flats has gradually decreased over the last 40 years,while those in Dongtai and Rudong have showed particularly accelerated decrease since the 1990s;and(3) in 2012,very few unused tidal flats two meters above the sea level are left along the Jiangsu coast,and mainly concentrated in Yancheng.As there are still reserving some coastal land resources between 0-2 m,providing us with a potential for future development.All of these findings may be useful for researchers and local authorities for the development and utilization of tidal flat resources in Jiangsu. 相似文献
69.
Salinity is a vital factor that regulates leaf photosynthesis and growth of mangroves, and it frequently undergoes large seasonal and daily fluctuations creating a range of environments – oligohaline to hyperhaline. Here, we examined the hypotheses that mangroves benefit opportunistically from low salinity resulting from daily fluctuations and as such, mangroves under daily fluctuating salinity (FS) grow better than those under constant salinity (CS) conditions. We compared growth, salt accumulation, gas exchange, and chlorophyll fluorescence of leaves of mangrove Bruguiera gymnorhiza seedlings growing in freshwater (FW), CS (15 practical salinity units, PSU), and daily FS (0–30 PSU, average of 4.8 PSU) conditions. The traits of FS-treated leaves were measured in seedlings under 15 PSU. FS-treated seedlings had greater leaf biomass than those in other treatment groups. Moreover, leaf photosynthetic rate, capacity to regulate photoelectron uptake/transfer, and leaf succulence were significantly higher in FS than in CS treatment. However, leaf water-use efficiency showed the opposite trend. In addition to higher concentrations of Na+ and Cl−, FS-treated leaves accumulated more Ca2+ and K+. We concluded that daily FS can enhance water absorption, photosynthesis, and growth of leaves, as well as alter plant biomass allocation patterns, thereby positively affecting B. gymnorhiza. Mangroves that experience daily FS may increase their adaptability by reducing salt build-up and water deficits when their roots are temporally subjected to low salinity or FW and by absorbing sufficient amounts of Na+ and Cl− for osmotic adjustment when their roots are subsequently exposed to saline water. 相似文献
70.
Actual pumping tests may involve continuously decreasing rates over a certain period of time, and the hydraulic conductivity (K) and specific storage (Ss) of the tested confined aquifer cannot be interpreted from the classical constant‐rate test model. In this study, we revisit the aquifer drawdown characteristics of a pumping test with an exponentially decreasing rate using the dimensionless analytical solution for such a variable‐rate model. The drawdown may decrease with time for a short period of time at intermediate pumping times for such pumping tests. A larger ratio of initial to final pumping rate and a smaller radial distance of the observation well will enhance the decreasing feature. A larger decay constant results in an earlier decrease, but it weakens the extent of such a decrease. Based on the proposed dimensionless transformation, we have proposed two graphical methods for estimating K and Ss of the tested aquifer. The first is a new type curve method that does not employ the well function as commonly done in standard type curve analysis. Another is a new analytic method that takes advantage of the decreasing features of aquifer drawdown during the intermediate pumping stage. We have demonstrated the applicability and robustness of the two new graphical methods for aquifer characterization through a synthetic pumping test. 相似文献