The effects of land surface process perturbations in a global ensemble forecast system

Atmospheric variability is driven not only by internal dynamics, but also by external forcing, such as soil states, SST, snow, sea-ice cover, and so on. To investigate the forecast uncertainties and effects of land surface processes on numerical weather prediction, we added modules to perturb soil moisture and soil temperature into NCEP’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), and compared the results of a set of experiments involving different configurations of land surface and atmospheric perturbation. It was found that uncertainties in different soil layers varied due to the multiple timescales of interactions between land surface and atmospheric processes. Perturbations of the soil moisture and soil temperature at the land surface changed sensible and latent heat flux obviously, as compared to the less or indirect land surface perturbation experiment from the day-to-day forecasts. Soil state perturbations led to greater variation in surface heat fluxes that transferred to the upper troposphere, thus reflecting interactions and the response to atmospheric external forcing. Various verification scores were calculated in this study. The results indicated that taking the uncertainties of land surface processes into account in GEFS could contribute a slight improvement in forecast skill in terms of resolution and reliability, a noticeable reduction in forecast error, as well as an increase in ensemble spread in an under-dispersive system. This paper provides a preliminary evaluation of the effects of land surface processes on predictability. Further research using more complex and suitable methods is needed to fully explore our understanding in this area.     

地物空间关系匹配的高分辨率遥感影像检索

从低层视觉特征与地物空间关系特征对影像内容进行描述,建立检索模板与目标影像间的相似性直方图表达,提出一种适用于高分辨率遥感影像检索的新方法。首先,利用Quin+树将大幅面原始遥感影像分解为一系列同尺寸的序列子块;然后,分别提取各子块的低层视觉特征与地物关系特征,并以子块为基元构建候选子块的特征直方图;最后,对比检索模板与候选子块间的特征直方图相似性,实现高分辨率遥感影像的检索。使用多幅多源高分辨率遥感影像进行实验,结果表明本文方法对耕地、水系、建筑物等地类的检索精度大都维持在0.8以上,且各项检索性能指标均优于已有的两种遥感图像检索算法。     

海洋链霉菌来源的天然产物*

海洋链霉菌由于其独特的生理和代谢功能,成为海洋微生物活性物质的主要来源。对2010-2013年初的海洋放线菌天然产物的统计表明,研究最多的是链霉菌放线菌,占海洋放线菌新天然产物的60%。本文综述了自1976年第一个海洋链霉菌天然产物到2016年6月的40年间报道的547个海洋链霉菌天然产物的结构、生物活性及其微生物来源。其结构包括含氮化合物（如生物碱）、聚酮、萜类、甾体等,其中含氮化合物是主要类型, 占海洋链霉菌天然产物总数的61%;而67%的海洋链霉菌天然产物表现出细胞毒、抑菌、抗疟和抗寄生虫等生物活性。     

1980-2017年中国碳强度关键影响因子变化特征

The Chinese government ratified the Paris Climate Agreement in 2016.Accordingly,China aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product(carbon intensity)to 60%–65%of 2005 levels by 2030.However,since numerous factors influence carbon intensity in China,it is critical to assess their relative importance to determine the most important factors.As traditional methods are inadequate for identifying key factors from a range of factors acting in concert,machine learning was applied in this study.Specifically,random forest algorithm,which is based on decision tree theory,was employed because it is insensitive to multicollinearity,is robust to missing and unbalanced data,and provides reasonable predictive results.We identified the key factors affecting carbon intensity in China using random forest algorithm and analyzed the evolution in the key factors from 1980 to 2017.The dominant factors affecting carbon intensity in China from 1980 to 1991 included the scale and proportion of energy-intensive industry,the proportion of fossil fuel-based energy,and technological progress.The Chinese economy developed rapidly between 1992 and 2007;during this time,the effects of the proportion of service industry,price of fossil fuel,and traditional residential consumption on carbon intensity increased.Subsequently,the Chinese economy entered a period of structural adjustment after the 2008 global financial crisis;during this period,reductions in emissions and the availability of new energy types began to have effects on carbon intensity,and the importance of residential consumption increased.The results suggest that optimizing the energy and industrial structures,promoting technological advancement,increasing green consumption,and reducing emissions are keys to decreasing carbon intensity within China in the future.These approaches will help achieve the goal of reducing carbon intensity to 60%–65%of the 2005 level by 2030.     

天山地块强震活动的时空特征研究

通过对天山地块近百年地震活动时空特征分析表明: ① M_S≥7.0地震沿块体边界成带分布, 南边界带强于北边界带, 南、 北边界带的西部强于东部, 南天山西段是地震活动水平最高、 复发周期最短、 强震序列类型最复杂、 地震危险性最大的地区; ② 地震活动在时间上显示出准周期性, 表现为M_S≥7.0地震具有活跃与平静的交替性及5级以上地震活动度曲线的起伏变化; 最大熵谱计算地震活动度的显著周期为40年, 小波分析给出40年左右周期系数的时间曲线表明, 7级以上地震都发生在曲线由最高值至最低值的下降段, 而上升段为强震的平静期; ③ 在强震活跃期及平静期, 中强以上地震(M_S≥5.0)在块体的不同部位(地块南、 北边界带及块体内部)的分布状态和活动水平存在明显的差异, 在活跃期南、 北边界带中强以上地震的集中性和成带性强, 且彼此活动水平差异小, 但与块体内部差异大; 而在平静期南、 北边界带的活动水平差异大, 块体内部地震活动显著增强; ④ 在活跃期, 天山地块南、 北边界带强震活动存在一定的呼应关系, 当一个边发生强震后, 另一边在数天至数年也存在发生强震的可能。     

软岩矿区地面下沉及其对工业建筑物影响分析

根据鲁中软岩矿区开采引起地面下沉及地面井塔楼等建筑物倾斜变形的工程实际,采用非确定性研究方法,将深埋破碎金属矿体开采引起地面沉陷或岩体移动变形这一客观现象视为一随机事件,建立了开采引起地面沉陷或岩体移动变形分析的数学模型。利用该模型可对开采引起地面沉陷及其对地表工业建筑物影响进行具体分析评价。通过具体计算分析结果表明,在软岩地层条件下矿体开采地表移动变形的影响范围有随着采深的增加而逐渐增大的趋势。     

利用多光谱遥感数据提取植被污染信息的新方法

有效监测植被污染的现状和变化是空间遥感技术的优势。根据植被在生长过程中在由红光和近红外波段组成的“植被视面”上的位置和迁移规律,提出了通过建立数学模型进行坐标旋转进而提取反映植被生长状况的绿度信息的方法,并且采用多光谱ASTER卫星遥感数据对江西德兴铜矿区的植被污染进行了应用研究。结果表明此方法可以消除土壤背景的影响,有效地判别植被长势的强弱,为在植被茂密覆盖区根据植被的长势和分布状况来判别生态环境状况提供了新思路,为其他相似的卫星数据的应用提供了科学的参考依据。     

FHD磁力仪Z分量分钟值日变化空间相关性的初步应用

应用FHD磁力仪垂直分量分钟值观测资料,初步分析了地震之前的日变空间相关性异常.首先分析了延时技术消除台站经度不一致造成的日变化相位差异对相关运算的影响,发现延时技术可降低相位差异的干扰,拓展参考台在经度方面的选择范围,并认为这是分钟值数字地磁资料优势之一.同时分析了短周期成份对日变化空间相关性的影响,发现对日变化空间相关性影响较大的周期成份在小时级左右,而更短周期成份的变化对日变化空间相关性影响不大.     

宜昌磷矿地下开采岩体移动分析

根据宜昌磷矿开采引起上部地表变形及岩体开裂的工程实际情况,在实测资料统计分析基础上,建立了高陡山区地下开采岩体移动变形预测分析模型,并给出了岩体变形破坏的极限值。利用该模型对宜昌磷矿区开采引起岩体变形及山体失稳现象进行了分析。通过工程实例分析表明,理论预计结果与现场实测结果吻合。     

潜江凹陷北部潜江组油气分布不均一性及控制因素

通过对潜江凹陷北部潜江组已探明石油储量构成和分布特征的系统分析,总结出油气分布的不均一性及其控制因素。潜江凹陷北部潜江组不同层位、不同区带油气分布差异性明显,具有纵向分隔、横向分散等显著特征。油气的不均一性分布主要受控于3种地质因素:①膏盐韵律发育导致油气纵向分隔,膏盐岩极高的排驱压力有效地限制了流体的垂向运移,油气以侧向运移为主;②成熟烃源岩控制油气富集程度,油气纵向富集程度主要受成熟烃源岩层位的控制,蚌湖向斜带主力生烃灶控制了油气在平面上的富集;③输导条件控制油气的运移方式和纵横向分布范围,高渗砂体的侧向输导能力控制了断层不发育地区油气聚集的规模与平面分布范围,断层的垂向输导作用导致了主干断层发育地区油气在纵向上呈多层系分布。