Statistical Downscaling Based on Dynamically DownscaledPredictors： Application to Monthly Precipitation in Sweden

A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.     

MAROS: a decision support system for optimizing monitoring plans

The Monitoring and Remediation Optimization System (MAROS), a decision-support software, was developed to assist in formulating cost-effective ground water long-term monitoring plans. MAROS optimizes an existing ground water monitoring program using both temporal and spatial data analyses to determine the general monitoring system category and the locations and frequency of sampling for future compliance monitoring at the site. The objective of the MAROS optimization is to minimize monitoring locations in the sampling network and reduce sampling frequency without significant loss of information, ensuring adequate future characterization of the contaminant plume. The interpretive trend analysis approach recommends the general monitoring system category for a site based on plume stability and site-specific hydrogeologic information. Plume stability is characterized using primary lines of evidence (i.e., Mann-Kendall analysis and linear regression analysis) based on concentration trends, and secondary lines of evidence based on modeling results and empirical data. The sampling optimization approach, consisting of a two-dimensional spatial sampling reduction method (Delaunay method) and a temporal sampling analysis method (Modified CES method), provides detailed sampling location and frequency results. The Delaunay method is designed to identify and eliminate redundant sampling locations without causing significant information loss in characterizing the plume. The Modified CES method determines the optimal sampling frequency for a sampling location based on the direction, magnitude, and uncertainty in its concentration trend. MAROS addresses a variety of ground water contaminants (fuels, solvents, and metals), allows import of various data formats, and is designed for continual modification of long-term monitoring plans as the plume or site conditions change over time.     

Studies of the formation process of water-in-oil emulsions

This paper summarizes studies to determine the formation process of water-in-oil emulsions and the stability of such emulsions formed in the laboratory and in a large test tank. These studies have confirmed that water-in-oil mixtures can be grouped into four states: stable emulsions, unstable water-in-oil mixtures, mesostable emulsions, and entrained water. These states are differentiated by rheological properties as well as by differences in visual appearance. The viscosity of a stable emulsion at a shear rate of one reciprocal second is about three orders of magnitude greater than that of the starting oil. An unstable emulsion usually has a viscosity no more than about 20 times greater than that of the starting oil. A stable emulsion has a significant elasticity, whereas an unstable emulsion does not. A mesostable emulsion has properties between stable and unstable, but breaks down within a few days of standing. The usual situation is that emulsions are either obviously stable, mesostable, or unstable. Entrained water, water suspended in oil by viscous forces alone, is also evident. Very few emulsions have questionable stability. Analytical techniques were developed to test these observations.

The type of emulsion produced is determined primarily by the properties of the starting oil. The most important of these properties are the asphaltene and resin content and the viscosity of the oil. The composition and property ranges of the starting oil that would be required to form each of the water-in-oil states are discussed in this paper.     

delta15N of seagrass leaves for monitoring anthropogenic nutrient increases in coral reef ecosystems

In a coral reef environment, a slight increase in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN;> or =1.0 micro M) can alter the ecosystem via macroalgal blooms. We collected seagrass leaves from the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean in five countries and examined the interactions between nutrient concentrations (C, N, P), molar ratios of nutrients, and delta15N to find a possible indicator of the DIN conditions. Within most sites, the concentrations of nutrients and their molar ratios showed large variations owing to species-specific values. On the other hand, almost identical delta15N values were found in seagrass leaves of several species at each site. The correlations between delta15N and nutrient concentrations and between delta15N and molar ratios of nutrients suggested that nutrient availability did not affect the delta15N value of seagrass leaves by altering the physiological condition of the plants. Increases in delta15N of seagrass leaves mostly matched increases in DIN concentrations in the bottom water. We suggest that delta15N in seagrass leaves can be a good tool to monitor time-integrated decrease/increase of DIN concentrations at a site, both in the water column and the interstitial water.     

Gonadal histology and serum vitellogenin levels of bigeye tuna Thunnus obesus from the Northern Pacific Ocean--absence of endocrine disruption bio-indicators

Endocrine disrupting chemicals such as organochlorines have been detected in a large number of marine fish. Histological observation of the gonads, measurement of serum vitellogenin (VTG) level and of liver polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) content were performed to evaluate the reproductive health and the contamination with endocrine disruptors in bigeye tuna Thunnus obesus, collected in the northern Pacific Ocean in 1999 and 2000. Abnormalities commonly found in species affected by endocrine disruptors such as the presence of oocytes in the testis or elevated serum VTG levels were not found in any of males examined. Both males and females had only small amounts of liver PCB content. The results suggest that currently there is little if any risk of organochlorine contamination or endocrine disruption of gonadal function in bigeye tuna from the northern Pacific Ocean. However, further studies are necessary to evaluate the health status of the open sea fishery resources.     

International survey on the distribution of stranded and buried litter on beaches along the Sea of Japan

The distribution and abundance of marine litter on 26 beaches along the Sea of Japan were investigated from September to November 2000. The mean concentration of stranded litter in Japan and Russia was 2144 and 1344 g/100 m(2), respectively. The mean number of pieces of stranded litter in Japan and Russia was 341 and 20.7/100 m(2), respectively. The most abundant type of stranded litter was plastic, which accounted for 40-80 % of the total items in terms of weight and number. The mean concentration of buried litter in Japan and Russia was 9.03 and 2.70 g/m(2), respectively. The total weight ratio of buried litter to stranded litter in the samples was 0.65, suggesting the significance of buried litter when evaluating the status of litter on beaches. Resin pellets were found on 12 Japanese beaches, but on none of the Russian beaches.     

Benthic primary producers--a neglected environmental problem in Mediterranean maricultures?

Marine fish farming is increasing rapidly in the Mediterranean and in contrast to the Atlantic the coastal zone in the Mediterranean is characterized by clear waters with high transparency. This allows benthic primary producers such as the slow-growing seagrass Posidonia oceanica to grow at large depths at locations suitable for fish farming and generating a conflict between the conservation of these meadows and the growth of aquaculture operations in the Mediterranean. In this paper we review the current knowledge on environmental interactions between fish farming and benthic primary producers with particular focus on P. oceanica, as this seagrass is a key component along Mediterranean coasts. The recovery times of P. oceanica are very long, in the order of centuries, and losses of this species are thus considered to be irreversible at managerial time scales.     

A model of fish preference and mortality under hypoxic water in the coastal environment

Eutrophication and associated occurrence of hypoxic condition could cause significant damage to marine ecosystems, resulting in considerable economic losses to fisheries and aquaculture and is a major source of stress that fish often have to contend with in order to survive. This problem is likely to be exacerbated in the coming years, since the wastewater treatment facilities is unlikely to catch up with increasing human activities. Moreover, large-scale reclamation projects in coastal areas have recently been increased, and these activities certainly have adverse impacts on water quality and fisheries resources. Coastal construction has a significant role in the development of hypoxic water by changing the current and mixing pattern of water. Changes in species composition and decreases in species richness and diversity have been well documented in hypoxic systems. Hypoxia could cause endocrine disruption in fish and eliminate populations of sensitive species. Shallow coastal areas are of great importance for the special nursery of fish and shellfish and land reclamation in these areas cause strong damage to fisheries. Although the tolerance of aquatic life to hypoxia is known, there is no information about the mortality of fish caused by hypoxia because fish can swim around it and no modeling study has yet been carried out. Criteria that influence the movement of fish are: amounts of food, water temperature and depth, dissolved oxygen concentration and nature of seabed. However, among these, water temperature and dissolved oxygen are the most crucial parameters that affect survival, movement and growth of fish. In this paper, a model of fish preference and mortality for environmental conditions was developed and applied to the Hakata Bay where hypoxic water occurs every summer. For the purpose of this study, a field survey of fish behavior under hypoxic water was conducted by releasing marbled sale (Pleuronectes yokohamae) in the inner bay. Moreover, a series of preference tests for DO, salinity and temperature in the laboratory were conducted in order to decide preference parameters of fish. Using the results of both field and laboratory studies, a sub-module of fish preference and mortality was coded within an integrated hydrothermal and eutrophication model (CHEM) to predict the behavior and mortality of marbled sale when hypoxia would occur in the bay. The model could reasonably simulate the behavior of the fish under hypoxia. An assessment of the impact of the ongoing land reclamation project of about 401 ha in the Wajiro tidal flat zones at the head of the bay on the fisheries resources was also conducted using the model. The results showed that the artificial land lowered the mortality rate of fish under hypoxic condition in the bay during the summer period.     

黑龙江嘉荫地区白垩纪-第三纪界线初步观察

本文报道了黑龙江嘉荫白山头地区一条新的地层剖面及其K／T界线的初步研究。新命名的“白山头段”代表乌云组下部的早古新世地层,含以Tiliaephyllum tsagajanicum等为代表的达宁早期植物化石。在白山头剖面上,作者发现可能为白垩纪末期的凝灰岩。结合与俄罗斯布列亚盆地含K／T界线的查加扬群标准剖面的对比,推测嘉荫地区的K／T界线可能位于白山头段底部与上述凝灰岩之上的一层炭质泥岩之间。     

Nutrients adsorption from seawater by new porous carrier made from zeolitized fly ash and slag

This study investigated the adsorption and precipitation of phosphate by blast furnace slag (BFS) separately.

In order to evaluate the adsorption capacity of BFS, BFS was treated before its use by acid. The authors aim to develop a new porous carrier to adsorb simultaneously ammonium and phosphate from seawater under eutrophic conditions. The current paper deals with a promising new approach to improve the utilization of some industrial solid wastes such as BFS and zeolite synthesized from fly ash [ZFA(Fe)] by their solidification to cylindrical porous carriers using a hydrothermal hot-pressing (HHP) method.

Attempts to produce porous carriers using an arranged HHP method with different porosities (24%, 40% and 52% (v/v)) were carried out. Physical properties of carriers such as porosity, compressive strength and height have been investigated. Laboratory studies showed strong evidence that the porous carrier was very selective towards phosphate and ammonium. The results demonstrated the role of porosity in enhancing phosphate and ammonium adsorption by the increase of the surface area per weight. The estimates of the parameters and the correlation coefficients according to the Freundlich equations revealed that adsorption was related to the porosity of carriers and phosphate and ammonium were adsorbed well on the carriers having large porosity.

The results suggested that developing carrier with high porosity was a promising way to enhance nutrients adsorption.