Time to leave: an analysis of travel times during the approach and landfall of Hurricane Irma

Hurricane Irma caused widespread evacuation activity across Florida and some of its neighboring states in September of 2017. The researchers gathered estimated travel times from the Google Distance Matrix API over about a month to identify and analyze evacuation periods on roads in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina during this time. Travel time data were mathematically adjusted to show more realistic estimations. Both sets of travel times were then graphed, with the assumption that elevated travel times prior to and during hurricane landfall were indicative of evacuation activity. The study generally corroborated the well-established daytime evacuation preference. However, not all evacuation periods followed the daytime travel preference, and at least one nighttime evacuation may have been caused by flooding. In another case, later elevated travel coincided with significant power loss. Finally, the Florida data suggest that most of the evacuation traffic departed before local jurisdictions’ recommended evacuation start times.

     

Characterisation of Two New Reference Materials: STL-1, the Stewart Lepidolite and ZA-1, the Zapot Amazonite

The analysis of granitic pegmatites still remains a challenge because suitable natural reference materials are scarce or not available. Two new reference materials were prepared at the Smithsonian Institution, to provide an avenue to pursue the geochemical analysis of micas and feldspars in granitic pegmatites: STL-1, the Stewart lepidolite (NMNH 174041) and ZA-1, the Zapot amazonite (NMNH 174042). STL-1 was prepared from lepidolite collected from the lithium-rich Stewart pegmatite, San Diego County, California (33°22'52'N, 117°03'41'W). ZA-1 was prepared from an amazonite from the topaz-bearing Zapot pegmatite, Mineral County, Nevada, (38° 41'N, 118 °33'W). The results of this study indicated that STL-1 and ZA-1 are homogeneous and could be used as reference materials that would allow the expansion of calibration curves in XRF analysis up to 16000 μg g⁻¹ for Rb, 2000 μg g⁻¹ for Cs and 100 μg g⁻¹ for Tl. STL-1 and ZA-1 also contain unusually high concentrations of Ga and Tl, and STL-1 of Nb.     

Vegetation change,erosion risk and land management on the Nullarbor Plain,Australia

 Arid karst landscapes that have been degraded by human activities provide a challenge for rehabilitation and an opportunity to test ideas about the stability and resilience of limestone ecosystems. The Nullarbor Plain is the largest arid karst area in Australia (220 000 km²) and is divided into extensive closed karstic depressions separated by low rocky ridges, while the dominant vegetation is chenopod shrubland. Since European settlement there has been considerable change in the vegetation, with significant reduction in shrub and grass cover over large areas of the plain. These changes are related to a state and transition model of vegetation dynamics which incorporates climatic variability, fire history and grazing pressure from sheep, kangaroos and rabbits. A partial sediment budget using ¹³⁷Cs inventories reveals local and regional patterns of soil redistribution within this arid karst landscape. Rehabilitation of eroded soil in pastoral lands has been accomplished at several sites but is labour intensive and vulnerable to climatic fluctuations. Given the low stock numbers, limited number of people involved, and poor economic returns, it would be sensible to make pastoral activities on the Nullarbor secondary to conservation priorities. This would necessitate a change in land ethic to stewardship, with emphasis on rehabilitation and control of feral animals. Management of increased numbers of visitors to the caves and karst also requires that resource inventories and management plans for each area be drawn up and used. Received: 1 June 1995 · Accepted: 4 December 1995     

Benthic macrofauna and productivity regimes in the Barents Sea — Ecological implications in a changing Arctic

Benthic faunal assemblages were analysed from 47 stations in the central and southern parts of the Barents Sea, together with sedimentary and water column parameters, daily ice records and modelled integrated primary productivity. Sampling spanned areas influenced by Atlantic Water (AW) to those lying under Arctic Water (ArW), and included stations with mixed water masses. Ice cover suppressed water column productivity in the northern areas. Three main faunal groups were identified, based on similarity of numerical faunal composition. The northern and southern faunal groups were separated by the northernmost penetration of AW in the bottom water and the third group, the Hopen group, was influenced by modified bank water. Faunal abundances were significantly higher within the southern faunal group relative to the northern group, but the numbers of taxa present were similar. The particularly rich fauna of the Hopen group reflected sediment heterogeneity and tight pelagic–benthic coupling. These results suggest that a retreat and thinning of the ice cover in the Barents Sea likely will result in the northern parts of the Barents Sea becoming more Atlantic in character, with a higher productivity at the sea floor.     

Microcoleus autumnalis and filamentous algae-dominated mats and chlorophyll-a increase with agricultural land use but respond differently to associated nutrient and sediment enrichment

ABSTRACT

This study investigated the impact of pastoral land use and nutrient and fine sediment inputs on Microcoleus autumnalis and filamentous algae-dominated mats, and benthic chlorophyll-a in streams (lower North Island, New Zealand). Surveying and sampling was undertaken monthly at 61 sites spanning a wide gradient in catchment cover and environmental conditions. Two boosted regression tree models were built. The first models included pastoral land cover and five environmental variables as predictors. In the second model pastoral land cover was replaced by nutrient/sediment data. The abundance of the two mat types and chlorophyll-a increased when pastoral land cover was between 20% and 70% (model 1). Replacement of pastoral land cover by nutrient/sediment data (model 2) slightly improved the model fit for all three periphyton variables. Microcoleus autumnalis-dominant mats increased with dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations up to ca. 0.6?mg?L^?1, and in streams with more frequent flushes. In contrast, filamentous algal-dominated mats increased with turbidity, and in streams with less frequent flushes. Chlorophyll-a generally followed the response of the dominant periphyton type. Increased knowledge on responses of specific periphyton types, rather than total biomass, to environmental variables is essential to guide effective management strategies.     

Quantifying sedimentation patterns of small landslide-dammed lakes in the central Oregon Coast Range

Understanding sedimentation patterns in small coastal watersheds due to landscape perturbations is critical for connecting hillslope and fluvial processes, in addition to managing aquatic habitats for anadromous fish and other aquatic species in the Oregon Coast Range (OCR). Changes in sedimentation patterns spanning the last 250 years are preserved in two landslide-dammed lakes in small watersheds (< 10 km²) underlain by the Tyee Formation in the central OCR. Dendrochronology of drowned Douglas-fir stumps in both lakes provided precise timing of the damming and formation of the lakes, with Klickitat Lake forming in winter ad 1751/52 and Wasson Lake in winter ad 1819/20. Perturbations from wildfires, logging and road development, and previously underappreciated snow events affect sedimentation rates in the lakes to different degrees, and are identified in the sediment record using cesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs), high-resolution charcoal stratigraphy, local fire records, and aerial photography. Each lake has variable sedimentation accumulation rates (0.05–4.4 cm yr⁻¹) and mass accumulation rates (0.02–1.42 g cm⁻² yr⁻¹). Sedimentation rates remained low from the landslide-damming events until the mid-19th century, when they increased following stand-replacing wildfires. Aside from a sediment remobilization triggered by human modification of the landslide dam at Klickitat Lake around 1960, the largest peaks in mass accumulation rates in the mid-20th century at both lakes in the early 1950s precede major road construction and logging activity in the watersheds. Subsequent sedimentation rates are lower, but variable, and possible effects of logging and road development might be exacerbated by abnormal precipitation and heavy snow events. A comparison of previous studies of landslide-dammed lakes in larger watershed of the OCR are consistent with our findings of increased sedimentation in the mid-20th century, as well as higher sedimentation rates in the debris-flow dominated southern Tyee Formation than in the lower-relief northern Tyee Formation.     

Climate change, adaptation and economic growth

This paper explores the links between economic growth and the impacts of climate change. Inclusive, pro-poor growth is central to the development of low-income countries. There is also a broad consensus that growth and development are important to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Growth does not automatically reduce vulnerability, only the right kind of growth does. The paper aims to develop a better understanding of what the ??right kind of growth?? may be. We find that many growth policies, such as investment in skills and access to finance, indeed reduce vulnerability to climate change. However, climate change calls for some adjustments in growth policy. In particular, investment in infrastructure and efforts to stimulate entrepreneurship and competitive markets must take more of a risk management perspective and recognise climate risks.     

Specimen-apparatus interaction during stick-slip in a tri axial compression machine: A decoupled two-degree-of-freedom model

The stick-slip of frictional sliding depends not only on material properties but also on the elastic and inertial properties of the loading system. To compare data from different testing machines or to apply them to the problem of natural seismogenic faulting, one must account for the differences in stiffness and mass. We develop a simple mechanical model to describe the stick-slip oscillation during frictional sliding in a triaxial-compression machine. The experimental system, the loading frame and rock specimen with precut sliding surface, is divided into two subsystems across this surface. The model is based upon two key assumptions: the kinetic friction is constant regardless of the relative motion of the subsystems, and the elastic restoring force is uniform throughout each subsystem. The first assumption leads to the decoupling of the subsystems, and the behavior of each becomes mathematically analogous to that of a simple spring/mass/slider-block model, owing to the second assumption. The theory agrees well with the experimental data from the dynamic measurements of stick-slip. The displacement-time function is of cosine form, the rise time of stick-slip is constant, and the relation between force drop and average displacement rate is linear. From this model we argue that the differences in the frictional behavior of experimental fault-gouges may indeed be ascribed to differences in the material properties of their specimens because the elastic and inertial properties of a particular testing machine are little influenced by the specimen itself, so long as all specimens are of about the same size. However, interlaboratory correlations may well be invalid unless machine effects are properly accounted for.