基于印度洋海温信号的我国西北地区东部夏季降水组合降尺度预测方法研究

利用国家气候中心第二代气候模式预测业务系统(BCC-CPSv2)预测产品,引入印度洋海温信号,采用组合降尺度方法建立了西北地区东部汛期降水预测模型。该预测模型对1991—2017年西北地区东部夏季降水的回报技巧较BCC-CPSv2预测技巧显著提高,空间相关系数由0.42提高到0.75,均方根误差明显减小,最多下降达80%。预测模型对降水空间分布型的预测能力较好,很好地回报了典型年份（1987年和2010年）夏季的降水距平百分率分布。通过抓住气象变量的空间分布特征,组合降尺度方法可以修正动力模式产品的预测误差,为西北地区东部夏季降水预测提供科学依据和技术支持,具有较好的应用前景。     

Gamma-ray burst efficiency and possible physical processes shaping the early afterglow

The discovery by Swift that a good fraction of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) have a slowly decaying X-ray afterglow phase led to the suggestion that energy injection into the blast wave takes place several hundred seconds after the burst. This implies that right after the burst the kinetic energy of the blast wave was very low and in turn the efficiency of production of γ-rays during the burst was extremely high, rendering the internal shocks model unlikely. We re-examine the estimates of kinetic energy in GRB afterglows and show that the efficiency of converting the kinetic energy into γ-rays is moderate and does not challenge the standard internal shock model. We also examine several models, including in particular energy injection, suggested to interpret this slow decay phase. We show that with proper parameters, all these models give rise to a slow decline lasting several hours. However, even those models that fit all X-ray observations, and in particular the energy injection model, cannot account self-consistently for both the X-ray and the optical afterglows of well-monitored GRBs such as GRB 050319 and GRB 050401. We speculate about a possible alternative resolution of this puzzle.     

A method for aligning the plastic scintillator detector on DAMPE

The Plastic Scintillator Detector(PSD) onboard the DArk Matter Particle Explorer(DAMPE)is designed to measure cosmic ray charge(Z) and to act as a veto detector for gamma ray identification.To fully exploit the charge identification potential of PSD and to enhance its capability to identify gamma ray events, we develop an alignment method for the PSD. The path length of a given track in the volume of a PSD bar is derived taking into account the shift and rotation alignment corrections. By examining energy spectra of corner-passing events and fully contained events, position shifts and rotations of all PSD bars are obtained, and are found to be on average about 1 mm and 0.0015 radian respectively. To validate the alignment method, we introduce artificial shifts and rotations of PSD bars into the detector simulation.These shift and rotation parameters can be recovered successfully by the alignment procedure. As a result of the PSD alignment procedure, the charge resolution of the PSD is improved from 4% to 8%, depending on the nuclei.     

The light curved in the CM field

In this paper we introduce the CM field in Sections 2 and 3 based on the paper by Wang and Peng (1985), and calculate the light curved in the CM field in Section 4. The result shows thatP makes _CM larger than _C at , and smaller at . Under a special circumstance which source, CM lens, and observer are in the same line, if we get | ₀₌₀ , and | _=/2 , we can determine theP(M) andQ(M) of the CM lens,M is the mass of the CM lens.     

The influence of magnetic fields on neutrino-dominated accretion disc

We consider the influence of magnetic fields on the model of neutrino-dominated accretion flows (NDAFs) for gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) via the assumption that the accretion rate of the disc is totally caused by the torque of the Lorentz force, i.e. the magnetic braking of large-scale magnetic fields and magnetic viscosity of small-scale magnetic fields. We calculate the structure, composition, luminosity of neutrino emission and the Poynting flux, and the rate of mass loss driven by neutrino heating or launched centrifugally by large-scale magnetic fields, based on the physical condition of the magnetized NDAFs. It is shown that the magnetized disc is favourable to interpret the diverse prompt emissions as well as the X-ray flares observed in the early afterglow of GRBs.     

A Possible 456-Day Optical Period of OQ 530

The post-1994observationsof the blazar OQ 530 in optical BV RI bands, and radio observations at 22GHz and 37GHz were collected. The date compensated discrete Fourier transform (DCDFT) and CLEANest methods were used to search for possible periodicities. Two possible periods of 456±100 days and 258±29 days were found in the optical bands. The existence of possible correlations between the optical and radio emissions was investigated by means of discrete correlation function (DCF) analysis, and no significant correlation was found. Some possible mechanisms for the periodic variability are discussed.     

Spectral energy distributions for TeV blazars

In this work, we collected a sample of 69 TeV blazars from TeVCat, obtained their multiwavelength observations, and fitted their spectral energy distributions by using a second degree polynomial function. The structure parameters of synchrotron bumps for 68 blazars and those of inverseCompton bumps for 56 blazars were derived. Then, we conducted statistical analysis on the parameters(curvature, peak frequency, peak luminosity, bolometric luminosity and X/γ-ray spectral indexes).From our analysis and discussions, we can conclude the following:(1) There is a clear positive correlation between the synchrotron peak frequency, log ν_p~s, and the inverse-Compton peak frequency, log ν_p~(IC),and between the synchrotron peak luminosity, log ν_p~sL_(νp)~s, and the inverse-Compton peak luminosity,log ν_p~(IC)L_(νp)~(IC).(2) The correlation between the peak frequency and the curvature of synchrotron bump is clearly different from that of the inverse-Compton bump, which further indicates that there are different emission mechanisms between them.(3) There is a correlation between log νIC pand γ-ray spectral index, α_γ, for the TeV blazars: log ν_p~(IC)=-(4.59 ± 0.30)α_γ+(32.67 ± 0.59), which is consistent with previous work.(4) An "L-shape" relation is found between log ν_p~s and α_X for both TeV blazars and Fermi blazars. A significant correlation between log νs pand X-ray photon index(α_X) is found for the TeV blazars with high synchrotron peak frequency: log ν_p~s=-(3.20 ± 0.34)α_X+(24.33 ± 0.79),while the correlation is positive for low synchrotron peaked TeV sources.(5) In the αX-αγdiagram,there is also an "L-shape." The anti-correlation is consistent with results available in the literature, and we also find a positive correlation between them.(6) Inverse-Compton dominant sources have luminous bolometric luminosities.     

渤海湾北岸TZ02孔晚新生代沉积环境演化过程

渤海湾北岸晚新生代沉积环境和沉积体系不仅是区域水文地质、工程地质的基础,也为古近纪沉积模式提供“将今论古”的依据。本文依据沉积物色度和粒度,以及沉积物岩性、结构和构造等,将渤海湾北岸TZ02孔划分了6个沉积组合、4个沉积阶段：1）2.10~3.22Ma,沉积组合Ⅰ和Ⅱ,湖盆填充期,发育湖相-泛滥平原相或湖相-曲流河相,该时期处于构造稳定期,干冷气候时期发育河流相、泛滥平原相,湿润气候时期发育湖泊相。2）1.33~2.10Ma,沉积组合Ⅲ,湖盆开始发育期,主要为浅湖相,仅有少量砂体,下部多有机质,上部多钙质淀积结核,指示了盆山之间的构造分异后,湖泊初始发育的特征。3）0.62~1.33Ma,沉积组合Ⅳ,湖盆扩张期,以湖相为主,多砂体,且有短期湖泊水位变浅和成陆过程;指示了盆山构造分异后,盆地加速沉降,湖盆扩张;山体隆起、河流下切,盆地中湖相砂体增多;此时TZ02孔附近为湖相中心,BG10孔为湖泊边缘。4）0~0.62Ma,沉积组合Ⅴ和Ⅵ,湖泊填充期,BG10孔为湖相的沉积中心,而TZ02孔为湖泊的边缘,接受滦河迁移摆动后的沉积物;中更新世后,构造沉降形成湖相,而间冰期发育海相,埋深0~22.5m的海相-河流相更直接地反映了末次冰消期海平面变化过程。

     

滑坡灾害环境与山区建设的和谐

滑坡是浙江省沿海及丘陵山区频发的地质灾害之一,常堵塞交通、农田毁损、民房倒塌、使山区人民生活环境严重恶化。分析滑坡灾害机理,提早预警预报,是合理规划山区民居建设、治理地质灾害、建立民居与生态环境合谐的的关系,是各级政府、地质工程界、建设部门和环境监理部门的重要社会责任和理论研究范围。     

机场群航线网络竞合评价方法及实证探讨——以粤港澳大湾区世界级机场群为例

航线网络是机场群市场竞争-合作（竞合）的重要内容。借助图论、集合论、产业经济等理论方法,从整体性市场及交互式市场两个视角探索并建立机场群航线网络竞合关系的量化评价模型,并基于粤港澳大湾区世界级机场群开展实证分析,研究表明：1）从整体市场竞争视角分析,大湾区机场群航点竞合市场由完全垄断市场与弱合作市场主导,但竞争程度在逐步强化;同类通航点的航线竞合指数存在较大的差异性及复杂性,但竞争程度也呈现加剧态势。2）从交互式竞争视角分析,大湾区机场群航线网络的竞合格局整体呈现由合作型向竞争型转变的态势,且航线竞争水平大于通航航点竞争。