对我国政府在全球采掘业透明倡议中应持立场的思考和建议

历经10余年的发展,采掘业透明倡议已经发生了巨大变化,西方发达国家开始积极介入,主动宣布试点或计划实施。形势的变化要求我国及时调整以往所持立场。本文简要介绍了全球采掘业透明倡议的组织架构及运作、实施现状,深入分析了各利益相关方的动机,对其未来发展加以研判,并结合我国涉及采掘业透明倡议的情况,提出了新形势下我国短期内不宜实施,但须及时调整立场;鼓励金融机构和企业介入EITI和其他反腐败倡议;政府应考虑成为EITI的正式支持国。     

美国内政部四轮战略规划的发展趋势及特点分析

美国内政部的战略规划是该部施政纲领的集中体现。四轮战略规划的目标从2003年强调资源保护、利用与休闲娱乐的平衡,到2007年增加全球经济、环境、政治和其他因素对内政部战略规划的影响,直至2014年强调资源的娱乐、人文观赏价值,并重视培养下一代的管理责任。内政部战略定位逐渐清晰。资源保护、经济发展、休闲娱乐的相对关系发生变化,从强调三者平衡到强调资源的休闲、文化等景观价值。     

重力场数学拟合模型解的影响因素探究

为了提高地球重力场模型不适定方程求解的精度,该文采用谱分析方法从级数展开阶数、数据采样率及数据缺失量3个方面探索影响数学拟合效果的根本因素:从常用的三角级数及勒让德级数模型出发,引出重力场拟合模型球谐函数模型,观察在改变级数展开阶数、数据采样率及数据缺失量等情况下所对应设计矩阵谱结构的变化,并从微观上研究影响误差分配的有关因素及最小奇异值对误差的决定性作用,为探求重力场模型解不准的原因及实现更高精度的全球重力场模型的建立提供参考。     

基于互信息量与BP神经网络的中长期径流预报方法研究

针对中长期径流预报因子的选择问题,采用互信息量方法筛选预报模型输入因子,在BP神经网络模型中,分别用均方误差和互信息量作为目标函数,衡量因子复合相关关系,优化选择最终预报因子并应用于碧流河汛期径流预报中。结果表明,基于互信息量筛选的预报因子与BP神经网络模型相结合,可有效识别多个预报因子与预报量间的复合相关性,对中长期径流预报因子的选择有很好参考价值。     

Short Term and Short Range Seismicity Patterns in Different Seismic Areas of the World

The aim of this work is to quantitatively set up a simple hypothesis for occurrence of earthquakes conditioned by prior events, on the basis of a previously existing model and the use of recent instrumental observations. A simple procedure is presented in order to determine the conditional probability of pairs of events (foreshock-mainshock, mainshock-aftershock) with short time and space separation. The first event of a pair should not be an aftershock, i.e., it must not be related to a stronger previous event. The Italian earthquake catalog of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING) (1975–1995, M 3.4), the earthquake catalog of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (1983–1994, M 3.0) and that of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) (1982–1994, M 3.8) were analyzed. The number of observed pairs depends on several parameters: the size of the space-time quiescence volume defining nonaftershocks, the inter event time, the minimum magnitude of the two events, and the spatial dimension of the alarm volume after the first event. The Akaike information criterion has been adopted to assess the optimum set of space-time parameters used in the definition of the pairs, assuming that the occurrence rate of subsequent events may be modeled by two Poisson processes with different rates: the higher rate refers to the space-time volume defined by the alarms and the lower one simulates earthquakes that occur in the nonalarm space-time volume. On the basis of the tests carried out on the seismic catalog of Italy, the occurrence rate of M 3.8 earthquakes followed by a M 3.8 mainshock within 10 km and 10 days (validity) is 0.459. We have observed, for all three catalogs, that the occurrence rate density for the second event of a couple (mainshock or aftershock) of magnitude M₂ subsequent to a nonaftershock of magnitude M₁ in the time range T can be modeled by the following relationship: (T, M₂) = 10^{a + b(M1 - M2)} with b varying from 0.74 (Japan) to 1.09 (Greece). The decrease of the occurrence rate in time for a mainshock after a foreshock or for large aftershocks after a mainshock, for all three databases, obeys the Omori's law with p changing from 0.94 (Italy) to 2.0 (Greece).     

Evaluating groundwater resource of an urban alluvial area through the development of a numerical model

As established in the European Water Framework Directive, the development of groundwater numerical models is fundamental for adopting water management plans aimed at preserving the water resource and reducing environmental risks. In this paper, authors present a methodology for the estimation of groundwater resource of an alluvial valley, in an urban area characterized by a complex hydrostratigraphic setting and scarcity of hydrogeological data; the study area is the urban and sub-urban area of Rome (Italy). A previous, elaborated hydrostratigraphic model set the base for the development of 3D, steady state, sub-basin scale numerical model, implemented by the finite-difference code MODFLOW 2000^®; the water system components were derived by elaboration of available data. The alluvial aquifer of the Tiber River Valley, which runs in the middle of the City in a NNW–SE direction, has been analyzed in detail, since it is covered by a densely populated area hosting most of Rome’s historical heritage, and it is characterized by low quality geotechnical parameters. Results suggest that in areas with high hydrostratigraphic complexity and scarcity of hydrogeological data, a sub-basin scale, and steady-state numerical model can be very helpful to verify the conceptual model and reduce the uncertainty on the water budget components. The proposed steady-state model constitutes the base for future applications of transient state and local scale models, required for sustainable water management.     

阿尔金南缘阿克提山岩体锆石U- Pb定年、Hf同位素特征及构造意义

阿克提山花岗岩体位于阿尔金断裂南缘,其形成时代与区域内其他花岗岩体差异较大,该岩体走向明显地受阿尔金断裂带分支断裂控制。锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb年代学分析表明,该岩体结晶年龄约为262Ma,其形成可能与南阿尔金地区在华力西期-印支期发生的大规模线性构造运动有关。岩体的岩性主要为石英闪长岩、花岗闪长岩,其暗色矿物以角闪石、黑云母为主,岩石A/CNK值均小于1.1,显示准铝质—弱过铝质特征,属于高钾钙碱性系列;大离子亲石元素Rb、Th、K相对富集,高场强元素Nb、Ta、P、Sr、Ti明显呈负异常;稀土元素配分曲线具有中等负Eu异常,δEu的平均值为0.73,(La/Yb)_N平均值为14.57,说明该花岗岩体岩浆部分熔融程度较高。根据岩石学及地球化学特征可判断该岩体为I型花岗岩。锆石Lu-Hf同位素分析表明,锆石ε_(Hf)(t)值为+1.46～+9.14,均为正值,二阶段模式年龄的峰值平均为943Ma,表明其源岩主要为新元古代新生地壳物质的部分熔融。阿尔金断裂在印支期的走滑运动是从地壳深部的韧性变形开始的,随后在浅地表发生脆性断裂形成大规模走滑断裂带。阿克提山岩体的形成与地壳深部减压熔融有关。     

北京通州某改造区土壤中DDTs和HCHs的地球化学特征及风险评价

选取北京通州环球影城附近某改造区为研究区域,共采集15件表层土壤样品,主要分析了该地区土壤中DDTs和HCHs的空间分布地球化学特征;采集垂向样品,并分析了DDTs和HCHs在土壤垂向剖面中的分布情况。表层土壤样品中大部分的DDTs和HCHs有检出,ΣDDTs的残留量为494~19615 μg·kg-1,ΣHCHs为082~1021 μg·kg-1。土壤垂向剖面分析结果表明,DDTs部分有检出,两剖面中残留量整体随深度变化不明显,但局部出现突变现象;HCHs全部检出,两剖面中残留量整体随着深度增加不断减少。参照国家相关标准对该区土壤环境整体进行评价,初步分析通州区环球影城地区土壤中残留DDTs除个别点符合二级标准外,其余都处于一级标准,残留风险较低;土壤中残留HCHs基本符合一级标准。结合不同异构体之间含量特征及分布,认为该地区局部近期可能存在HCHs输入现象。最后,对该改造区进行了健康风险评价,结果表明该区DDTs和HCHs在致癌风险和部分非致癌风险方面影响较小。     

二次判别函数在油气水层解释中的应用

在油田的勘探与开发过程中,每口井完钻后都要进行油矿地球物理的测井工作,以确定井下地质剖面的岩石学类别,划分出渗透性和非渗透性地层,并指出渗透性地层中所含的是油、气或是水。     

Analysing Lava Risk for the Etnean Area: Simulation by Cellular Automata Methods

The model SCIARA, based on the Cellular Automata paradigm, is a versatile instrument whose scope is to analyse volcanic risk from lava flows.The possible fields of intervention are:[(a)] Long term forecasting of the flow direction at various eruption rates and points of emission by locating potential risk areas and permitting the creation of detailed maps of risk;[(b)] The possibility to follow the progress of an event and predict its evolution;[(c)] The verification of the possible effects of human intervention on real or simulated flows in stream deviation.A risk scenario has been developed for the Etnean territories of the towns of Nicolosi, Pedara and S. Alfio, simulating possible episodes with different vent locations along the fracture opened in the 1989 eruption and successively activated in the 1991–1993 eruption.The main characteristics of lava flows, that might be dangerous to the inhabited areas, have been analysed on the basis of the carried out Cellular Automata.