安全射界技术在人工影响天气对空作业中的应用

本文根据人工影响天气(以下简称人影)作业安全射界管理需求,讨论分析了影响人影作业安全射界因素包括装备性能、弹药稳定性、高空气流、站点海拔和人员操作水平等,提出一种人影作业安全射界精细化绘制思路和方法,设计开发了基于高分辨率卫星影像数据和数字高程模型数据(以下简称DEM数据)人工标识技术的人影安全射界绘制系统。经实践应用,该系统输出的人影作业安全射界图,可解决传统射界图安全标记要素不全、绘制分辨率不高、信息化程度低等问题,对提升作业效益和安全管理水平具有一定的实用价值,可以向开展人影作业的各级单位推广使用。     

南宁市蔗糖行业人工增雨服务效益调查评估

分析了南宁市种植甘蔗的气候适应性,以及降雨量与甘蔗生长、蔗茎产量及含糖量的关系,并对比分析了为南宁糖业股份有限公司所属蔗区实施人工增雨前后的甘蔗产量及蔗糖分,认为蔗糖分前后变化不大,但实施人工增雨后甘蔗产量有较显著提高,从而能获得令人满意的经济效益;在此基础上提出了做好人工增雨工作的改进思路。     

Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004)

We assessed current status of multi-model ensemble (MME) deterministic and probabilistic seasonal prediction based on 25-year (1980–2004) retrospective forecasts performed by 14 climate model systems (7 one-tier and 7 two-tier systems) that participate in the Climate Prediction and its Application to Society (CliPAS) project sponsored by the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC). We also evaluated seven DEMETER models’ MME for the period of 1981–2001 for comparison. Based on the assessment, future direction for improvement of seasonal prediction is discussed. We found that two measures of probabilistic forecast skill, the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Area under the Relative Operating Characteristic curve (AROC), display similar spatial patterns as those represented by temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) score of deterministic MME forecast. A TCC score of 0.6 corresponds approximately to a BSS of 0.1 and an AROC of 0.7 and beyond these critical threshold values, they are almost linearly correlated. The MME method is demonstrated to be a valuable approach for reducing errors and quantifying forecast uncertainty due to model formulation. The MME prediction skill is substantially better than the averaged skill of all individual models. For instance, the TCC score of CliPAS one-tier MME forecast of Niño 3.4 index at a 6-month lead initiated from 1 May is 0.77, which is significantly higher than the corresponding averaged skill of seven individual coupled models (0.63). The MME made by using 14 coupled models from both DEMETER and CliPAS shows an even higher TCC score of 0.87. Effectiveness of MME depends on the averaged skill of individual models and their mutual independency. For probabilistic forecast the CliPAS MME gains considerable skill from increased forecast reliability as the number of model being used increases; the forecast resolution also increases for 2 m temperature but slightly decreases for precipitation. Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are primary sources of atmospheric climate variability worldwide. The MME 1-month lead hindcast can predict, with high fidelity, the spatial–temporal structures of the first two leading empirical orthogonal modes of the equatorial SST anomalies for both boreal summer (JJA) and winter (DJF), which account for about 80–90% of the total variance. The major bias is a westward shift of SST anomaly between the dateline and 120°E, which may potentially degrade global teleconnection associated with it. The TCC score for SST predictions over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean reaches about 0.68 with a 6-month lead forecast. However, the TCC score for Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index drops below 0.40 at a 3-month lead for both the May and November initial conditions due to the prediction barriers across July, and January, respectively. The MME prediction skills are well correlated with the amplitude of Niño 3.4 SST variation. The forecasts for 2 m air temperature are better in El Niño years than in La Niña years. The precipitation and circulation are predicted better in ENSO-decaying JJA than in ENSO-developing JJA. There is virtually no skill in ENSO-neutral years. Continuing improvement of the one-tier climate model’s slow coupled dynamics in reproducing realistic amplitude, spatial patterns, and temporal evolution of ENSO cycle is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast. Forecast of monsoon precipitation remains a major challenge. The seasonal rainfall predictions over land and during local summer have little skill, especially over tropical Africa. The differences in forecast skills over land areas between the CliPAS and DEMETER MMEs indicate potentials for further improvement of prediction over land. There is an urgent need to assess impacts of land surface initialization on the skill of seasonal and monthly forecast using a multi-model framework.     

焦作市4-9月短期降水精细化预报系统

在降水时空变化研究的基础上,完成辖区降水区划;用计算机识别T213风场中槽线、切变线等影响系统,并按其相对于预报站方位,确定对其影响强度指数,组合预报因子,建立判别方程,制作分县0～12小时、12～24小时降水分级预报。经检验,系统对降水落区有较强预报能力。     

依托课堂活动提高中学地理教与学的有效性

Luo Dongling     

世界遗产地旅游解说系统规划与构建研究——基于安阳殷墟的调查数据

遗产地旅游解说系统规划是一项综合而又技术性很强的工程。随着河南世界文化遗产数目的增多,遗产地的旅游解说系统的构建就显得尤为重要,它为游客进行深度的文化解读提供了帮助。采用实地访谈和问卷调查的研究方法,系统全面地介绍了安阳殷墟文化遗产景区解说系统现状,并结合旅游解说系统规划的基本模型所关注的六大要素,提出未来安阳殷墟景区应进行科学系统的理念规划和形象设计、解说系统空间布局规划和分级解说服务系统规划,并注重对游客心理和行为的研究。     

Web Service for extracting stream networks from DEM data

This paper describes the implementation of a morphology based algorithm for extracting stream networks from data as a Web Service within the framework of GeoBrain, an open, interoperable, distributed, standard-compliant, multi-tier web-based geospatial information services and knowledge building system. Unlike standard out-of-the-box GIS software, which uses the flow direction based algorithm and often produces streams that are spatially uniform, streams extracted with this Web Service correctly reflect spatial variability in dissection patterns. In addition, this Web Service is free and can be accessed from anywhere provided that there is an Internet connection and a standard Web browser.     

桂林地区大气降水的氢氧同位素研究

本文分析了桂林地区1983～1985年大气降水的氢氧同位素组成的逐月变化,得出本地区大气降水的δD与δ18O值关系式是δD=8.9δ18O+20,其相关系数为0.993。而这个地区内的δD月变化(δ18O亦然)与降水量的变化相反,本区所有的河水,地下水的δ值都落在大气降水线附近,这说明它们都由大气降水补给。      

Effect of Free Ferric Oxide on Engineering Properties of Laterite

In southern China, there are a great amount of red clay(laterite) which contains some free ferric oxide. Owing to its composition and microstructure developed under hot, wet soil-forming conditions, the clay has several special characteristics. Although the water content and void ratio of laterite are greater than similar clay soils, its strength is still higher than the others. There seems to be a contradiction between its physical parameters and mechanical properties. In this paper, the effect of free ferric oxide in laterite on its engineering properties, such as strength, swelling properties and others is discussed. The research result shows that special properties of laterite are the result of various conditions of formation, loss and crystallization degree of free ferric oxide, and its physical and mechanical properties will change with variation of physicochemical circumstance.     

石鼓煤矿泥岩的物理化学力学特性研究

本文对石鼓煤矿具有代表性的三种泥岩的矿物组成、物理力学性质、物理化学因素、胶结物质和微观结构的测试和分析进行了介绍,并从物理化学力学观点出发研究了水质变化、风干失水、结构破坏等因素对泥岩膨胀性的影响。研究结果表明:泥岩的粘士矿物以高岭石和伊利石为主;其膨胀力为2～5公斤/平方厘米;粘土矿物含量高,结晶不良,胶结物质少,结构紧密是它产生膨胀且易受物理化学力学因素变化的影响的主要原因。