利用洞穴石笋的δ~(18)O和δ~(13)C重建3000a以来北京地区古气候和古环境——石花洞研究系列之三

首次提出用石笋中稳定同位素记录重建由降雨量和降水气团同位素组成所反映的古气候历史，从而为研究高分辨率的古季风气候信息开辟了新的途径。利用Ｈｅｎｄｙ准则、洞穴温度、研究区水系的δ１８ＯＨ２Ｏ值以及温度公式，证实了同位素分析结果的可靠性，ＣａＣＯ３－Ｈ２Ｏ之间存在同位素平衡分馏。对采自石花洞的石笋样品进行了分辨率约为２５ａ的δ１８Ｏ和δ１３Ｃ的分析测量，从而得到３０００ａ以来，北京地区古气候和古环境的变化信息     

哀牢山-红河左旋走滑剪切带构造抬升时间序列的裂变径迹证据

对采自红河断裂带元阳—嘎洒段的４个片麻岩和糜棱岩样品中的磷灰石进行裂变径迹（ＦＴ）测年，得到５．６１～１０．６４Ｍａ的年龄范围。结果表明，ＲＲＦＺ段磷灰石ＦＴ年龄有从东南向西北变新的趋势。结合已有的钾长石多重扩散域（ＭＤＤ）模式结果，得到该段１５０℃至１１０℃温度范围的冷却过程（冷却速度为３．４～９．４５℃／Ｍａ）。ＦＴ结果反映的特征与南海盆地得到的１５Ｍａ时断裂带所受力的转换的结果是一致的     

晴空时大气红外遥感及其反演问题 I. 理论研究

本文首先研究了晴空情况下大气温、湿廓线及表层温度等参数的同步反演问题。利用一阶变分原理，从红外辐射传输方程中得到了大气温度、水汽权重函数的解析形式，然后利用牛顿非线性迭代法求解大气温度廓线、大气水汽廓线和表层温度。并从“最佳信息层”的概念出发，指出水汽遥感反演的两个特点。     

数字滤波方法在月尺度数值预报中的应用：II.保留不同低频过程的效果比较

用数字滤波方法对观测资料序列进行处理，得到初始场用于Ｔ４２Ｌ９全球谱模式的月预报，以去除误差增长较快的高频扰动对低频过程的影响，并且利用多时刻的观测资料提取低频过程的信息。对冬季和夏季两个不同个例进行了实例，并比较了取不同长度的观测序列，截取不同周期的过程作为初值对预报效果的影响。结果说明，经过滤波后对低频分量和平均场的预报都有显著的改进。而且对于较长时效的预报，应保留更低频的过程（比如１０ｄ以上     

国外中期数值预报业务模式的性能及发展趋势

作者简单介绍了国内预报员较为熟悉的欧洲中期天气预报中心，美国国家气象中心和日本气象厅三个中期预报模式的性能及预报效果，包括近几年颇为流行的半拉格朗日时间积分方案，物理过程参数化方案的完善和改进，中期数值预报业务模式的发展趋势等。     

参考大气谱方法在国家气象中心谱模式上的应用

参考大气引入中期谱模式，能有效地减少截谱误差，提高预报精度。文章主要叙述了参考大气在国家气象中心业务预报谱模式上的进一步发展。计算结果表明，引入参考大气后，T63预报质量和降水的TS评分均有一定程度的提高。     

Predictability in limited area and global models

Summary Selected small domain LAM forecasts modulated by highly corrugated underlying topography, and driven by different state-of-science outer models suggest that uncertain outer model guidance for LAMs produces large, domain averaged sensitivity. A further literature survey indicates that many LAM forecasts are relatively insensitive to details of the local initial state, and that mesoscales show slight error growth, in contradiction to classical predictability theory. A series of global predictability experiments is presented in order to reconcile the contradiction. The experiments imply that, even in baroclinically unstable atmospheres, the most common sources of local error growth are associated with small uncertainties of the larger spatial scales rather than small uncertainties of the smaller spatial scales. Variable resolution, real-data experiments of barotropic versions of the global model display substantial mesoscale error growth, due principally to the effect of larger scales. The uncertainties possessing largest spatial scale appear as boundary uncertainties in LAMs, and explain the strong boundary sensitivity and weak local initial data sensitivity observed in many LAMs. We infer that accurate depiction of the largest spatial scales is a first order priority for accurate local prediction, and that for the advective portion of the dynamics, errors of the outer model that provides lateral boundary conditions may impose the largest current practical limitation for many LAM predictions.With 10 Figures     

Turbulent fluxes over inhomogeneous landscape

Mesoscale surface turbulent fluxes over a complex terrain surrounded by oceans have been investigated using a 3-D numerical mesoscale model, under conditions with and without synoptic flows. The study indicated that under synoptically calm condition, the allocation and intensity of mesoscale surface turbulent fluxes (MSTFs) were greatly impacted by the thermally forced mesoscale circulation (TFMC) over mesoscale heterogeneous landscape. The max-imum values of sensible (Hs) and latent (LE) heat fluxes were located over the convergent zones and considerably im-pacted by the soil wetness (M), but did not depend strongly on the atmospheric background thermal stability (β0). The simulated results suggested that the sensible heat flux was closely proportional to the square of wind speed in the surface layer. By the action of synoptic flow, the allocation of LE was shifted to downwind, its intensity increased.     

Observation of gravity waves in a boreal forest

In this paper we report the results of the analysis of two 60-min wave events that occurred in a boreal aspen forest during the 1994 BOREAS (Boreal Ecosystems-Atmosphere Study) field experiment. High frequency wind and temperature data were provided by three 3-D sonic anemometer/thermometers and fourteen fine-wire thermocouples positioned within and above the forest. Wave phase speeds, estimated from information revealed by spectral analysis and linear plane wave equations, are 2.2 and 1.3 m s^-1 for the two events. The wavelengths are 130 m and 65 m respectively and are much larger than the vertical wave displacements. There is strong evidence from the present analysis and from the literature supporting our postulate that these waves are generated by shear instability. We propose that wind shear near the top of the stand is often large enough to reduce the gradient Richardson number below the critical value of 0.25 and thus is able to trigger the instability. When external conditions are favorable, the instability will grow into waves.     

龙门山地区泥盆纪碳酸盐与硅质碎屑的混积相与混积机理

碳酸盐与陆源碎屑的混合沉积研究至今尚未引起足够重视。文献屈指可数。扬子西经缘龙门山地区盆纪发育了了这类良好的混合沉积。作者根据实际材料，首次从这一思路出发，识别该区泥盆纪Ｅｍｓｉａｎ期到Ｇｉｖｅｔｉａｎ早期的混积相四种，混积亚相约１４种，阐明了其优势混积作用；根据混积作用特征、沉积背景关系，划分出两大混积类型，即泥质背景下的混积１型和砂灰质背景下的混积Ⅱ型；对混积作用机理进行了探讨；并指出不同级次