Monitoring Mangrove forest landcover changes in the coastline of Bangladesh from 1976 to 2015

Abstract

This study used multi-date Landsat images to quantify mangrove cover changes in the whole of Bangladesh from 1976 to 2015. Images were pre-processed with an atmospheric correction using Dark Object Subtraction (DOS) and Relative Radiometric Normalization (RRN) using Pseudo-Invariant Features (PIFs). Land Use/Land Cover (LU/LC) classification map was generated using Maximum Likelihood (MaxLike) algorithm, indicating the areal extent of mangroves increased by 3.1% between 1976 and 2015, where 1.79% of this increase occurred between 2000 and 2015. Though mangrove areas remained almost constant in the Sundarbans, Chakaria Sundarbans has almost disappeared between 1976 and 1989. The overall accuracy of Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+, and L8 OLI classified images were 80%, 80%, 87%, and 97% respectively. The study also found deforestation, shrimp & salt farm, coastal erosion and sedimentation, and mangrove plantation could be responsible for mangrove changes in Bangladesh.     

Forecasting thunderstorms and hailstorms by means of temperature and dew-point anomalies on a time-section chart

Summary Vertical time-section charts for temperature and dew-point anomalies have been plotted. The temperature anomaly decreasing upwards give convection according to Byers and Braham [1]²). The coincidence of temperature anomalies with central minimum and of dew-point anomalies with central maximum, or of upward decreasing trend in temperature anomalies and upward increasing trend in dewpoint anomalies, correspond to the convection associated with greater moisture influx, thus representing the case of a thunderstorm. The mentioned anomalies have been found to occur in such a way that cells with central maximum are followed by those with central minimum, and vice versa. Thus simultaneous occurrences of upward decreasing anomalies in temperature, i.e. occurrence of cells with central minimum of temperature, and upward increasing anomalies in dew-point, i.e. occurrence of cells with central maximum, can be observed at any station, hence the occurrences of thunderstorms at that station can be predicted. Moreover, the two kinds of anomalies can give the idea (along with that of convection, of coming of the synoptic situation having dry air aloft and moist air below, which is the ideal condition) for the occurrence of a hailstorm (Fawbush andMiller [2]).     

Upper air mean dry-bulb and dew-point temperature profiles over Gauhati airport

Summary The best fit curves for upper air mean dry-bulb and dew-point temperatures over Gauhati airport (26°05N, 91°43E, 49 metres a.m.s.l.), for the month of April, have been calculated with the equation,x=A+By+Cy ²,y being the log value in mb of the isobaric level under consideration andx, the mean dry-bulb or dew-point temperature as the case may be, at the isobaric level under consideration. The values of constantsA, B andC for morning dry-bulb and dew-point curves come to be –29.54559, –93.65766 and +37.35048 and –118.84791, –31.15503 and +25.63585 respectively and values of these constants for evening curves come to be –35.86214, –94.15694 and +38.61870 and –127.55970, –29.97192 and +26.36538 respectively. These best fit curves help in finding out mean desired temperatures at any isobaric level in forecasting of thunderstorms and hailstorms, at a station, by dry-bulb and dew-point temperature anomaly technique propsed earlier by the authors.     

Climatology of the occurrences of thundery weather over Gauhati airport

Summary The probability of occurrences of thundery weather over Gauhati airport has been investigated. During the pre-monsoon thunderstorm period, the months of April and May have higher probabilities for the occurrences of thundery weather and the month of March has, on average, medium probabilities. The probability for thundery weather, during the months of March and April, is the highest during >18 to 24 h and then decreases successively during 00 to 06 h, >12 to 18 h and >06 to 12 h in order. The month of May, being the transition season for sharp decrease of nor' westers, is an exception. The months June to September, during monsoon season, have high probabilities for a day being thundery; but the month of October, during which monsoon virtually withdraws, shows decreasing trend in probabilities for successive date-groups. During the whole of the monsoon months, the time-groups >12 to 18 h, >18 to 24 h, 00 to 06 h and >06 to 12 h rank first, second, third and fourth in the order of probability for a day being thundery.In April and May, the probabilities for the occurrences of thundery weather of MLL, LL and VLL groups are higher, but in the month of March, the probabilities for the occurrences of first two groups are higher and the third group has medium probability. During the months June to September, in the monsoon season, the probability for thundery weather of MLL and LL groups are higher but that of VLL group has the medium probability; during the month of October — the last month for monsoon season — MLL and LL have higher and medium probabilities for the occurrences of thundery weather.     

Crustal deformation revealed by GPS in Kumaun Himalaya,India

The foremost Global Positioning System(GPS) derived measurements in the Kumaun Himalaya indicate that most of the crustal motion of the Indian plate is accommodating towards the base as well as on the hanging wall of Main Central Thrust(MCT).Deformation pattern within the Kumaun Himalaya varies from south to north and indicates maximum deformation rate near MCT.Our study,based on the campaign mode GPS survey during 2003- 2006,reveals that the area between north of North Almora Thrust(NAT) and at the base of Great Himalaya registers maximum strain rate,which is lowered towards the Trans Himadri Fault(THF).The GAMIT-GLOBK processed campaign data of the area show that currently,the Himalayan Frontal Fault(HFF) and Main Boundary Thrust(MBT) are locked with the Indian plate,and a 6.7 ± 2.5 mm/yr of horizontal shortening is taking place between the Lesser Himalaya and Peninsular India.     

The potential contribution of wildlife sanctuary to forest conservation: A case study from binsar wildlife sanctuary

Forest vegetation of a protected area(Binsar Wildlife Sanctuary) in Kumaun region(west Himalaya) was analysed for structure,composition and representativeness across three different altitudinal belts,lower(1,600-1,800 m a.s.l.),middle(1,900-2,100 m a.s.l.) and upper(2,200-2,400 m a.s.l.) during 2009-2011 using standard phytosociological methods.Four aspects(east,west,north and south) in each altitudinal belt were chosen for sampling to depict maximum representation of vegetation in the sanctuary.Population structure and regeneration behaviour was analysed seasonally for two years to show the establishment and growth of tree species.A total of 147 plant species were recorded from the entire region of which 27 tree species were selected for detailed study.Highest number was recorded at upper(18 species),and lowest at lower altitudinal belt(15 species).The relative proportion of species richness showed higher contribution of tree layer at each altitudinal belt.The population structure,based on the number of individuals,revealed a greater proportion of seedling layer at each altitudinal belt.The relative proportion of seedlings increases significantly along altitudinal belts(p<0.05) while opposite trends were observed in sapling and tree layers.The density of sapling and seedling species varied non-significantly across seasons(p>0.05).The density values decreased in summer and increased during rainy season.As far as the regeneration status is concerned,middle and upper altitudinal belts showed maximum number of species with fair regeneration as compared to lower altitudinal belt.Overall density diameter distribution of tree species showed highest species density and richness in the smallest girth class and decreased in the succeeding girth classes.This study suggests that patterns of regeneration behaviour would determine future structural and compositional changes in the forest communities.It is suggested that the compositional changes vis-à-vis role of ‘New’ and ‘Not regenerating’ species need priority attention while initiating conservation activities in the sanctuary.This study calls for exploring other less explored Wildlife Sanctuaries in the Himalaya and across the world,to achieve overall biodiversity status in these protected areas and thus to justify their role in conserving biodiversity in the region.     

Modeling the Potential Distribution of Pine Forests Susceptible to Sirex Noctilio Infestations in Mpumalanga,South Africa

Reducing the impact of the siricid wasp, Sirex noctilio is crucial for the future productivity and sustainability of commercial pine resources in South Africa. In this study we present a machine learning model that serves as a spatial guide and allows forest managers to focus their existing detection and monitoring efforts on key areas and proactively adopt the most appropriate course of intervention. We implemented the random forest model within a spatial framework to determine which pine forests in Mpumalanga are highly susceptible to S. noctilio infestations. Results indicate that a majority (63%) of pine forest plantations located in Mpumalanga have a high susceptibility (>70%) to S. noctilio infestation. A KHAT value of 0.84 and F measures above 0.87 indicate that the random forest model is a robust classifier that produces accurate results. Additionally, the use of the backward variable selection method enabled us to simplify the random forest modeling process and identify the minimum number of explanatory variables that offer the best discriminatory power and help in the empirical interpretation of the final random forest model. Overall, the results show that pine forests that experience stress caused by evapotranspiration and evaporation followed by rainfalls, especially during the summer months are more susceptible to S. noctilio infestations.     

Development of a preliminary slope stability calculation method based on internal horizontal displacements

This paper proposes a horizontal displacement-based approach to determine the potential slip surface of the slope. Firstly, a group of in-situ inclinometers with an appropriate spacing in the horizontal direction is located in the model slope. The equation of horizontal displacement with time for each in-situ inclinometer is fitted during the whole simulation process. Furthermore, the intersection of each inclinometer with potential slip surface is determined by using an optimization model. The slip surface can be obtained by using least square fitting method. Finally, the feasibility and accuracy of the method are validated by a series of numerical simulations. It is noted that the optimization model taking the maximum value of displacement increment gradient as an objective has higher accuracy when compared with other optimization models. This method employed in this study provides a preliminary approach to determine the real-time slope stability based on displacement, which can also be measured by using conventional instruments on site.     

Bianchi type I cosmological model with variable Λ-term

Bianchi type I perfect fluid cosmological model is investigated with a variable cosmological term. Einstein’s field equations are solved for any arbitrary cosmic scale factor. The main result of the study is the expression for cosmological term as a power law of scale factor. The age of the universe can also be readily calculated.