基于关联规则的故障诊断方法研究

提高自动气象站设备运行能力和观测数据的质量状况成为影响气象预测预报服务的准确性和气象事业发展的关键。然而中国现在业务运行的自动气象站设备并没有内置的故障检测装置,也没有完善的自检系统。但是气象要素(温湿压风雨)的变化往往是相互关联的,为了提高自动气象站数据质量,及时有效地判断设备故障。从大量观测数据试验结果进行研究,提出一种基于关联规则的故障综合诊断方法。通过使用Apriori挖掘算法,得到各气象要素及其变化量之间的强关联规则,通过实际观测数据验证2012年7月26日08时江西南昌站湿度传感器发生故障。     

基于遗传算法的瞬变电磁法线圈阵列优化设计

为解决瞬变电磁检测技术遇到地底干扰物时在探测精度方面的不足,从载流直导线出发,利用磁场矢量叠加原理,计算单个正三角形空间磁场分布,设计了一种正三角形发射线圈阵列。为得到更好的磁聚焦特性,利用遗传算法对线圈阵列的具体参数进行优化。仿真结果表明:87.5%及以上的磁场能量集中在半径0.113m的特定区域内。说明该线圈阵列在较小目标区域实现了聚焦,具有良好的聚焦性,可以应用在瞬变电磁检测技术发射回线中。     

Verifying Fossil-Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions Forecasted by an Artificial Neural Network with the GEOS-Chem Model

In this study, the authors developed an en- semble of Elman neural networks to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of fossil-fuel emissions （ff） in 2009. The authors built and trained 29 Elman neural net- works based on the monthly average grid emission data （1979-2008） from different geographical regions. A three-dimensional global chemical transport model, God- dard Earth Observing System （GEOS）-Chem, was applied to verify the effectiveness of the networks. The results showed that the networks captured the annual increasing trend and interannual variation of ff well. The difference between the simulations with the original and predicted ff ranged from -1 ppmv to 1 ppmv globally. Meanwhile, the authors evaluated the observed and simulated north-south gradient of the atmospheric CO2 concentrations near the surface. The two simulated gradients appeared to have a similar changing pattern to the observations, with a slightly higher background CO2 concentration, - 1 ppmv. The results indicate that the Elman neural network is a useful tool for better understanding the spatial and tem- poral distribution of the atmospheric C02 concentration and ft.     

大气初始场对短期气候数值预测的影响

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所发展的九层大气环流模式(简称IAP 9L2°×2.5°-AGCM)分析了大气初始场对短期气候数值预测的影响,分别从实际观测海温、海冰的外强迫和气候态海温、海冰的外强迫出发,进行两组集合回报试验,每组包含3个试验,分别将实时NCEP-Ⅱ资料和对NCEP-Ⅱ资料经5 d平滑、11 d平滑后的资料作为大气初始场,进行17 a(1988—2004年)集合回报试验,采用相关分析方法对试验结果进行对比分析。结果表明,比较相关系数定量检验出大气初始场对热带地区可预报性影响较小,而对中、高纬度地区影响很大。通过对6个试验中对应气象要素在对流层各层距平时间相关系数以及17 a空间异常相关系数均值比较分析发现对东亚(中国)地区夏季气候而言,NCEP-Ⅱ资料经5 d平滑后生成的大气初始场对应回报试验结果相对最好。     

夏季贝加尔湖南侧环流异常的前兆信号

利用1978—2012年NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料,对夏季贝加尔湖南侧环流异常的前兆信号进行分析。结果表明:前期冬季印度尼西亚到西太平洋地区对流与夏季贝加尔湖南侧反气旋式环流异常存在一致的变化,为预测夏季贝加尔湖南侧环流异常的前兆信号之一。即当前期冬季印度尼西亚到西太平洋地区对流活动偏强时,夏季对流区北抬至青藏高原西侧,进而有利于贝加尔湖南侧反气旋式环流异常的发生和维持。但是,进一步研究表明,夏季西印度洋对流活动异常将干扰青藏高原及其西侧的对流上升运动对贝加尔湖环流的影响。当夏季西印度洋对流偏强时,前期冬季印度尼西亚到西太平洋对流和夏季青藏高原西侧对流变化表现出不一致。偏强的西印度洋对流将干扰青藏高原及其西侧的对流上升运动对贝加尔湖环流的影响,进而不利于贝加尔湖南侧反气旋式环流异常的形成。当夏季西印度洋对流异常弱时,前期冬季印度尼西亚到西太平洋地区的对流可能引起夏季贝加尔湖南侧环流异常,两者呈现一致的变化;但当夏季西印度洋对流强盛时,将可能改变上述两者的变化关系。     

2010—2011年东海藻华高发区水体层化对东海原甲藻(Prorocentrum donghaiense Lu)藻华的影响

本文通过2010年和2011年不同时空角度对东海原甲藻藻华进行调查,研究水体层化对藻华发生和发展的影响。结果显示,起初东海原甲藻在50m等深线附近的外海繁殖与聚集,然后随着台湾暖流与长江冲淡水的相互作用,东海区域水体层化现象加剧,其细胞丰度越来越大,直至藻华发生并持续推进到近岸。大部分东海原甲藻细胞位于层化水体上方,而且当水体层化现象明显时,藻华的发展最为迅速且呈大规模爆发状态。结果还显示当出现叶绿素高值层时,总是伴随出现温盐突变现象。本项研究不仅第一次从时间角度记录了东海原甲藻藻华的发展动态,而且还发现了东海水体层化现象为东海原甲藻藻华的发生和发展提供了多种环境因子条件,这为该藻华的监控和预测提供了重要的科学依据。     

迁徙季节水鸟对滨海不同类型湿地的利用——以广西山口红树林自然保护区为例

为了解迁徙季节水鸟在不同滨海湿地中的结构组成和行为特征,于2010年3月、4月、9月、11月和2011年3月,在山口自然保护区及其周边地区对不同滨海湿地类型的水鸟展开调查。结果显示:迁徙季节天然湿地共记录到水鸟6目8科39种,人工湿地有6目9科50种。天然湿地比人工湿地的物种数少,整体数量上,春季人工湿地大于天然湿地,秋季则为天然湿地水鸟数量更多。鹬鸻类在不同滨海湿地类型中觅食行为比例差异显著,在天然湿地中觅食比例达到76.67%,而在人工湿地中则以休息和睡眠等非觅食行为为主。天然湿地是鹬鸻类的重要觅食地,而人工湿地则是鹭类和鹬鸻类的主要休息地。鹭类在两种滨海湿地类型中觅食个体的数量不随潮汐的涨落而相应增减。鹬鸻类随潮汐高度上升,在两种滨海湿地类型中觅食的个体数量减少。山口地区的滨海人工湿地是水鸟在高潮期间天然湿地良好的替代栖息地。     

海岛礁光学和雷达影像基于改进非子采样小波变换的自动配准

Homologous feature point extraction is a key problem in the optical and synthetic aperture radar （SAR） image registration for islands. A new feature point extraction method using a threshold shrink operator and non-subsampled wavelet transform （TSO-NSWT） for optical and SAR image registration was proposed. Moreover, the matching for this proposed feature was different from the traditional feature matching strategies and was performed using a similarity measure computed from neighborhood circles in low-frequency bands. Then, a number of reliably matched couples with even distributions were obtained, which assured the accuracy of the registration. Application of the proposed algorithm to SPOT-5 （multi-spectral） and YG-1 （SAR） images showed that a large number of accurately matched couples could be identified. Additionally, both of the root mean square error （RMSE） patterns of the registration parameters computed based on the TSO-NSWT algorithm and traditional NSWT algorithm were analyzed and compared, which further demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. The algorithm can supply the crucial step for island image registration and island recognition.     

Ecological indicators showing the succession of macrofauna communities in Sonneratia apetala artificial mangrove wetlands on Qi’ao Island at Zhuhai, South China

The Sonneratia apetala artificial mangroves in the intertidal zone of Da Wei Bay at Qi’ao Island of Zhu-hai, South China were chosen as the macrofauna succession plots while bare tidal flats of the same size were established as control plots in surrounding interference-free areas. Conventional change indicators of community structure, such as biomass and biodiversity, and indicators, such as exergy and specific exergy, which reflect the information change of overall communities, were used to analyze the succession of macro-fauna communities inS. apetala artificial mangroves. The similarities and differences in variation tendency of the different ecological indicators and their reflected ecological principles were compared. The results showed that from D-1 to D-1275 after plantingS. apetala, the biomass of the macrofauna communities first increased, which was then followed by an increase in the network relationship between the macrofauna communities （analysis of the Pielou evenness index and Shannon-Wiener diversity index）. The system in-formation （specific exergy） increased the slowest. Between D-1460 and D-2370 after plantingS. apetala, there was a decrease in biomass, network structure, and system information in the succession plots. After the decrease in the system information （the specific exergy）, there was a decline in the network relationships （Pielou evenness index and Shannon-Wiener diversity index）. Biomass was the last indicator to decrease. The similarities and differences among the different ecological indicators varied during the succession pro-cess, which reflected the relativity and differences among the indicators. This study suggested that, although the species diversity index can be an effective indicator of two types of changes （network structure and system information）, it was quite clear that species diversity measurement was not suitable for expressing the changes in biomass during the succession process. While exergy and specific exergy can provide useful information     

苏北沿岸流对浒苔暴发及漂移过程的影响

根据2009年5月的温度、盐度和溶解氧观测数据,应用"对应分析法"对水团的分布范围和特性进行了分析,并探讨了苏北沿岸流对浒苔(Enteromorpha prolifera)暴发及漂移过程的影响。结果表明,春季苏北沿岸流向东南流动过程中,可以将海水中悬浮的浒苔繁殖体向南输运至长江冲淡水与苏北沿岸流交汇处,此处的浒苔繁殖体在适宜的条件下生长繁殖。在夏季风的作用下,长江口北部的浒苔与苏北沿岸海域的浒苔,随表层海流向北漂移,在地球偏转力作用下,漂移路径不断向右偏转,并最终在山东半岛南部海域聚集堆积。苏北沿岸流在浒苔暴发初期将繁殖体输送到条件适宜的生长区,并对浒苔向北漂移起到了重要作用。长江冲淡水向北扩展范围的增大对于浒苔的生长和繁殖起到了促进作用。查明浒苔扩散路径及输运机制不仅具有重要环境意义,而且对深入了解沿岸和河口区泥沙及污染物的扩散和输运机制具有指示作用。