Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

Chemical forms of heavy metal contaminants in sediments of Miyun reservoir

The chemical forms, spatial distribution and sources of As, Hg, Cd, Pb and Zn in sediments of the Miyun reservoir were studied. The results of sequential extraction demonstrate that most of As, Pb and Zn were bound to the residual fraction, Hg was associated with the sulfide fraction while Cd was associated with the carbonate fraction and the residual fraction. On the vertical profiles the concentrations of the heavy metals in total and each fractions mostly decreased with increasing depths in sediments, suggesting that the heavy metals input from the upstream watershed increases yearly. Summation of the residual fraction, the sulfide fraction and the carbonate fraction accounts for 60.03%―85.60% of the total heavy metal contents in the sediments, which represent the geochemical background values of the elements and relate closely to soil erosion. Results of the main factor analysis show that most sediments of the reservoir come from the upstream soil erosion, the point source pollution and domestic waste. Moreover, the microbial activities taking place on the sediment-water interface are also one of the major factors to cause the increasing content of the organic matter fraction and the iron-manganese oxide fraction. Environmental change of the reservoir water could make the removability of the heavy metals increase, leading to the increase of their concentrations in pore water in sediments, and imperiling water quality of the reservoir.     

沙坡头没蒿和柠条叶片δ13C 和 N 含量的季节变化特征

通过对腾格里沙漠东南缘沙坡头人工固沙区油蒿和柠条叶片稳定碳同位素分辨率（△）和N 含量的测定，研究了不同种植方式下油蒿和柠条叶片△ 和 N 含量的季节变化及其关系。结果表明：在不同种植方式下，两种植物的△ 与 N 含量在不同月份之间均存在显著差异。油蒿叶片 △ 极显著高于柠条的：在不同种植方式下，油蒿单种下 △ 显著高于混种，柠条则反之。 油蒿叶片 N 含量极显著低于柠条的：不同种植方式下柠条叶片 N 含量无显著差异，而单种油蒿叶片 N 含量则显著低于混种。在 △ 与 N 含量的关系中，柠条叶片 △ 与 N 在两种生境、单种和混种下均极显著正相关，雨明柠条叶片 N 含量可以作为其 △ 与 N 含量的季节变化及其关系在不同微生境有所差异。     

福建明清时期农作物的地理分布

明清时期,福建的农村经济发展比较快,多元化的农业生产是这一时期福建农村经济的最显著特点.粮食作物、经济作物在农村大量存在,但又有一定的区域差异.     

基于TLE数据的空间目标大气再入预报

空间态势感知的主要任务之一是空间目标监测和编目,目的是提供全链条轨道数据服务,其中包括空间目标的再入和陨落预报.Spacetrack网站向全球用户提供了公开可获取、编目空间目标数量最多的两行轨道根数(two line element ,TLE)数据库,是开展空间目标轨道力学研究的重要数据源.如何利用该数据库实现无控目标...     

天然气水合物的开发试验有如星星之火——第6届国际天然气水合物会议

1会议概况 2008年7月610日,第6届国际天然气水合物大会在加拿大温哥华举行。参会人员共计526人,其中亚洲参会人员占38％,欧洲参会人员占25％,美洲参会人员占37％。本次大会共提交论文417篇,主题发言2篇,分别由加拿大地调局DallimoreS和美国地调局ColleztT所作,题目分别是“2007年Mallik天然气水合物开发情况介绍”和“印度天然气水合物国家计划成果介绍”。     

基于环境DNA技术的舟山南部海域鱼类资源状况和多样性分析

为完善舟山南部海域鱼类种类组成及结构特征,文章使用环境DNA技术对该海域鱼类多样性进行检测。通过采集水样、过滤、提取环境DNA、PCR扩增、测序,在该海域6个站位中获得8个环境DNA样品,共检测到9种舟山海域常见鱼类。其中,软骨鱼纲1种,辐鳍鱼纲8种,龙头鱼(Harpadon nehereus)为优势种。研究结果表明,虽然环境DNA技术无法完全替代传统的鱼类资源调查方法,但是可以作为鱼类资源调查和空间分布的补充手段,与底拖网数据结合,为舟山南部海域鱼类组成和群落结构季节性变化提供依据。     

日照国家级海洋公园生态产品价值实现机制研究

日照国家级海洋公园是目前全国面积最大、景观元素最为丰富、旅游设施最为完备的国家级海洋公园。文章通过分析日照海洋公园的生态产品价值实现现状的意义,并发现其中存在的问题,同时给予相应的建议,希望对日照海洋公园未来的发展提供较大的借鉴和参考。     

河北省北部晶质石墨矿层岩(矿)石地球化学特征与成因分析

晶质石墨是一种新兴战略矿产。近年在河北省北部发现了多处大中型晶质石墨矿床,主要赋矿层位于新太古代崇礼上岩群、古元古代红旗营子岩群等,具有良好的成矿潜力。通过系统的野外地质调查与采样、分析测试工作,详细研究了赋矿层位的岩相学、地球化学特征,并对碳质来源进行了分析。结果表明:赋矿岩石主要为含石墨黑云斜长变粒岩、片麻岩与透辉岩,原岩恢复以砂泥质碎屑岩、钙质沉积岩为主。主量元素含量变化较大, SiO₂含量为38.90%～80.42%, CaO+MgO为2.05%～31.93%, Al₂O₃为1.50%～15.34%;稀土元素含量为79.1～321.4μg/g, PAAS标准化分布模式一般具有右倾或较平坦分布特征, δCe略具负异常,部分具有δEu异常。微量元素特征指示沉积环境为滨浅海环境,部分地区存在富氧条件,局部为还原环境或存在热液加入。石墨中碳同位素值为–26.0‰～–20.7‰,主要来源于生物成因有机碳;大理岩碳同位素值为–3.8‰～1.1‰,主要来源于碳酸盐岩成因无机碳。区内晶质石墨矿层分布受到地层、岩性、岩相控制,含矿...     

北极河流径流量变化及影响因子分析

利用最新的北极径流资料(R-arcticNET V3.0和Arctic RIMS),对进入北冰洋的4条主要河流的季节及年代际变化进行诊断分析。结果表明:入海径流在4-6月的大幅增加主要是由气温达到融点后积雪融化造成的,降水的作用次之。总的来说,欧亚区域在过去的70年里入海径流量是增加的,而北美区域在近30年里入海径流量是减小的,但注入北冰洋的径流总量是增大的。值得注意的是入海径流的年代际变化在不同季节增减趋势显著不同,夏季和秋季径流量减小,而其他两个季节径流量增大。进一步分析了影响入海径流变化的一些气候因子,结果表明:北大西洋涛动(北太平洋指数)与欧亚(北美)区域的冬、春季径流量存在正相关。春季气温与春季径流量呈正相关,而与夏季径流量呈负相关。降水与径流量基本上为同步正相关。春季积雪覆盖面积与春季径流量为负相关,而与夏季径流量为正相关,夏季积雪覆盖面积与夏季的径流量为正相关。