Diagnostic analysis of future climate scenarios applied to urban flooding in the Chicago metropolitan area

Past heavy precipitation events in the Chicago metropolitan area have caused significant flood-related economic and environmental damages. A key component in flood management policies and actions is determining flood magnitudes for specified return periods. This is a particularly difficult task in areas with a complex and changing climate and land-use, such as the Chicago metropolitan area. The standard design storm methodology based on the NOAA Atlas 14 and ISWS Bulletin 70 has been used in the past to estimate flood hydrographs with variable return periods in this region. In a changing climate, however, these publications may not be accurate. This study presents and illustrates a methodology for diagnostic analysis of future climate scenarios in the framework of urban flooding, and assesses the corresponding uncertainties. First, the design storms are calculated using data downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM) at 30-km spacing for the present and 2050s under the IPCC A1Fi (high) and B1 (low) emissions scenarios. Next, the corresponding flood discharges at six watersheds in suburban Chicago are estimated using a hydrologic event model. The resulting scenarios in flood frequency were first assessed through a set of diagnostic tests for precipitation timing and frequency. The study did not reveal any significant changes in the 2050s in the average timing of heavy storms, but their regularity decreased. The average timing did not exhibit any significant spatial variability throughout the region. The precipitation frequency analysis revealed distinct differences between the northern and southeastern subregions of the Chicago metropolitan area. The quantiles in the northern subregion averaged for 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year return periods exhibited a 20% and 16% increase in daily precipitation for scenarios B1 and A1Fi, respectively. The southeastern subregion, however, exhibited a decrease of 12% for scenario B1 and a minor increase of 3% for scenario A1Fi. The hydrologic effects of changing precipitation on the flood quantiles were illustrated using six small watersheds in the region. The relative increases or decreases in precipitation translated into even larger relative increases or decreases in flood peaks, due to the nonlinear nature of the rainfall-runoff process. Simulations using multiple climate models, for longer periods, finer spatio-temporal resolution, and larger areal coverage could be used to more accurately account for numerous uncertainties in the precipitation and flood projections.     

双多普勒雷达风场反演误差和资料的质量控制

提出了用双多普勒雷达观测资料进行回波强度、径向速度和方位定位的质量控制方法,以及利用概率分布法订正配对的双多普勒雷达回波强度的方法。以2001年973“中国暴雨”外场试验期间获取的双多普勒雷达观测资料为例,比较了合肥、马鞍山和宜昌、荆州的两对双多普勒雷达同步观测的回波强度、径向速度和方位的改变对观测数据对比的影响;分析了这两对双多普勒雷达径向速度测量误差引起的风场反演的误差。结果表明:两对双多普勒雷达观测的回波强度和径向速度的空间位置和变化趋势比较一致,合肥与马鞍山雷达的回波强度有一定差异,径向速度也有1～2 m/s的差异。风场反演的误差与风场的方向、大小、空间位置等有关。在两个径向速度夹角在40°～140°范围内,共面上的风场的反演误差在1～2倍的雷达探测径向速度的误差范围内。     

海洋卫星军民融合发展现状及几点思考

对比分析了国内外海洋卫星军民融合发展现状,指出了我国存在的主要差距,并分析造成这些差距和障碍的主要问题和症结所在,从标准体系融合、技术融合和数据融合三个方面提出我国海洋卫星军民融合发展思路,并结合发展思路提出了科学统筹、科技引领、开放协作、以人为本的军民融合发展举措,为海洋卫星军民融合发展提供了借鉴作用和决策支持。     

斑鳢(Channa maculata)微囊藻毒素去毒相关基因sGST的克隆与序列分析

采用RT-PCR技术和RACE技术成功克隆淡水鱼类斑鳢sGST基因cDNA全序列,推测得到氨基酸序列,初步分析其结构功能域及系统进化关系。结果表明,斑鳢sGST基因cDNA序列全长为898bp,编码225个氨基酸。斑鳢sGST与真鲷、金头鲷、鲽、黑头鲦、川鲽、大口黑鲈等最新定名为ρ型的sGST氨基酸同源性较高,ρ型sGST为水生生物所特有并共同占据进化树上独立的分枝;与大鼠、小鼠、人等哺乳动物sGST现有所有类型同源性均很低,并且在进化树上距离也较远,表明本研究成功克隆的sGST基因应属于ρ型,可能在鱼类等水生生物对水栖环境的适应上有重要作用。     

Seasonal changes in nitrogen and phosphorus transport in the lower Changjiang River before the construction of the Three Gorges Dam

Water and sediment samples were collected at Datong from June 1998 to March 1999 to examine seasonal changes in the transports of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from the Changjiang River (Yangtze River) to the East China Sea (ECS). Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN; dominated by nitrate) concentration exhibited small seasonality, and DIN flux was largely controlled by water discharge. Dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) concentration was inversely correlated with water discharge, and DIP was evenly delivered throughout a year. The transports of DIN and DIP from the Changjiang River were consistent with seasonal changes in nutrient distributions and P limitation in the Changjiang Estuary and the adjacent ECS. Dissolved organic and particulate N (DON and PN) and P (DOP and PP) varied parallel to water discharge, and were dominantly transported during a summer flood. The fluxes of DOP and particulate bioavailable P (PBAP) were 2.5 and 4 times that of DIP during this period, respectively. PBAP accounted for 12–16% of total particulate P (PP), and was positively correlated with the summation of adsorbed P, Al–P and Fe–P. Ca–P, the major fraction of PP, increased with increasing percent of CaCO₃. The remobilization of riverine DOP and PBAP likely accounted for the summer elevated primary production in DIP-depleted waters in the Changjiang Estuary and the adjacent ECS. The Changjiang River delivered approximately 6% of DIN (1459 × 10⁶ kg), 1% of DIP (12 × 10⁶ kg), and 2% of dissolved organic and particulate N and P to the totals of global rivers. The construction of the Three Gorges Dam might have substantially reduced the particulate nutrient loads, thereby augmenting P limitation in the Changjiang Estuary and ECS.     

促熟措施对南美白对虾雌虾性腺成熟率的影响

南美白对虾(Penaeus vannamei)是北美和中南美洲普遍饲养的一种对虾,它不但具有生长迅速、对饲料蛋白质需求量低、出肉率高、离水存活时间长和易集约化养殖等优点,而且具有很强的抗病能力和对环境的适应能力。江苏省大丰市等地区的养殖试验表明,该对虾与中国对虾同池混养,在中国对虾陆续染病死亡的同时,该对虾却健壮活泼、生长旺盛,是值得我国大力推广的对虾养殖新品种。由于南美白对虾自然分布于西太平洋沿岸,我国无天然资源,因此,采取全人工育苗技术解决该虾苗种问题已成为当务之急。研究表明,该种雌虾在日常蓄养条件下性腺不会成熟,在驯养条件下其成熟也无规律(Yono,1990)。迄今为止,国内尚未见有南美白对虾池养雌虾促熟措施方面的报道。为此,我们在1995年工作基础上,于1996年3-5月,对池养南美白对虾雌虾进行了摘除眼柄、强化营养、控制光照等促熟对比试验,取得了较好的效果。     

北黄海菲律宾蛤仔帕金虫流行病害的研究

2000年7-11月,对我国北黄海沿岸滩涂增养殖的菲律宾蛤仔Ruditapes philippinarum大规模死亡进行了研究,并对病害暴发与温度、盐度的相关性进行了探讨.利用FTM培养和组织切片方法对病害流行海域的菲律宾蛤仔进行了检测.结果表明,蛤仔体内寄生了大量病原帕金虫Perkinsus sp,感染率为20%-100%,感染强度为3-3 565 936cell/ind或2-1 670 615cell/g组织.感染强度与蛤仔大小有关,个体越小,感染程度越轻.经感染试验,进一步确定了帕金虫大量繁殖是引起蛤仔大规模死亡的原因.病害始于7月下旬,止于10月下旬;最初暴发于庄河栗子房海域,尔后逐渐向东西两侧海域蔓延.病害暴发时机主要受温度影响,高于20℃易于暴发帕金虫病害;流行范围主要受盐度影响,盐度为20-32海域适宜帕金虫病害的流行.     

匙指虾三新种记述

匙指虾除少数为大型个体外，多数均为体长仅20-30mm的小型淡水虾类。在中国已报道有7属100多种。在检查多年来从全国各地收集的匙指虾标本中，发现有三个新种，现报道如下。     

Spatial Distribution Assessment and Source Apportionment of Land-Based Pollutant Yield from Qingdao,China

The spatial distribution of chemical oxygen demand(COD) and total nitrogen(TN) yield from Qingdao are studied by comparing pollutant yield amount, densities and spatial aggregation(Getis-Ord indexes) among the land-based pollutant source regions(PSRs) entering the three sub-seas(i.e. the Jiaozhou Bay(JZB), other coastal area in the Yellow Sea(OCAYS) and Laizhou Bay(LZB), respectively). Industrial composition of the loads are also studied by comparing pollutant yield among the sources of agriculture, rural domesticity, industry, urban domesticity and service, and calculation of Gini coefficient. Results show that spatial distribution of COD and TN yield from Qingdao are extremely unbalanced. The JZB, with less than 3% of the total coastal sea area of Qingdao, received 62% COD load and 65% TN yield from Qingdao, while the OCAYS, with more than 97% area, only received 23% COD and 20% TN, which consist with the much worsen water quality of JZB than that of OCAYS. On the other hand, the source apportionment of COD and TN loads in the PSRs entering JZB and the OCAYS was similar. The agricultural and domestic sources with high pollution intensity account for more than 80%, while the industrial and service sources with low pollution intensity account for less than 20%. While Gini coefficients, COD 0.81 and TN 0.84 which are much higher than the ‘imbalance' threshold of 0.4, show the uneven industrial structure of Qingdao. These results may be useful in the determination of land-based pollution total amount control at the PSR level.     

CHARACTERISTICS OF ZONAL ANOMALY OF ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEASTERN CHINA

The characteristics of zonal anomaly and change rule of temporal distribution of annual precipitation in the northeastern China are revealed in this paper with EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) and REOF (Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function) methods and results are drawn in the standard relief maps with GIS technology for practical application. Data used in the study were obtained from 208 meteorological stations over the northeastern China from 1961 to 2001. EOF results show that the first 3 loading vectors could give entire spatial anomaly structure of annual precipitation. In the Northeast Plain including the Songneng Plain and the Liaohe Plain, there is a regional compatibility (whether wet or dry) of annual precipitation change and this precipitation pattern has occurred since the late 1980s to the present. There also exist annual precipitation patterns of wet (or dry) in south and dry (or wet) in north and wet (or dry) in east and dry (or wet) in west. REOF results display 8 principal precipitation anomaly areas by the first 8 rotated loading vectors: the west plain, the Liaodong hills, the Sanjiang Plain, the Liaoxi hills,the Changbai Mountains, the Hulun Buir Plateau, the southwest plateau and the Liaodong Peninsula.