黄河流域天然径流量突变性与周期性特征

突变性和周期性是水文时间序列的两个重要特征。黄河流域面积广阔，各区域水文水资源系统演变规律各不相同，它们的突变和周期变化及其形成的物理机制遍异，因此系统分析各区域水资源突变性和周期性特征及其影响机制具有重要意义。把黄河流域划分为15个区域，计算出各区域1951—1998年的年天然径流量系列。利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法检测黄河流域各区域年天然径流量的突变年份，结果表明各区域的突变年份不完全一致，主要在1953—1955年、1979—1983年、1991—1993年等发生了突变，这些突变与北半球气候突变具有一致性，且由于下垫面改变、人类活动等影响而复杂化。利用Morlet小波分析各区域年天然径流量的变化周期，发现主要存在3～4a、7～9a、11a的周期，形成这些周期的物理因子有太阳黑子、海—气相互作用和下垫面因素等。通过分析黄河流域主要产流区不同时段小波系数变化，发现20世纪80年代之后年径流量主要以短周期变化。     

四川某矿山边坡失稳机理及稳定性评价

四川某矿山开采边坡迄今已有30余年,随采区规模的逐渐扩大,在矿区南坡构成一典型的顺层开挖边坡,因矿层中夹有不同数量的软弱夹层,在边坡前缘破坏坡角、并加上降雨及爆破振动影响,时常发生颁层滑坡,不仅给矿山人民生命财产带来严重危害,而且也严重制约矿山的正常发展。通过对典型开挖边坡所在部位的工程地质条件凋查,在确定影响边坡稳定的主要控制因素和边界条件的基础上。考虑四种工况条件下的稳定性分析和评价,为矿山下一步施工提出了较为合理的开挖方案。     

青藏高原的水塔功能

青藏高原是维持我国乃至东亚地区生态系统的重要水塔。高原平均海拔在4000m以上,与周边地区形成了巨大的地势差。高原东南部不仅具有丰富的降水,而且在3500m以上以冰川雪被形态储存了巨大的水资源,因此,高原具有重要的水塔功能。基于高原潜在输出总水量和不同海拔区域水体所具有的势能两个方面,建立了高原水塔功能的模型,从而利用GIS方法,通过对我国1∶400万系列图和相关资料的统计分析,计算出高原不同高度带贮存的大气降水、冰川储水量、湖泊水量以及工农业用水量。计算结果表明,青藏高原冰川湖泊的淡水储量达39921×108m3,其中冰川储水量为39228×108m3,可利用湖泊储水量为693×108m3,平均每年由降水获得的水资源量为8495×108m3,高原工农业用水量为129×108m3。因此,高原的输出水量即出境河川径流量为6870×108m3。高原储水主要分布在海拔3000～5000m间,与高原周围相比,平均势差在2000～4000m间,最大的势差达5500m。水体具有巨大的势能,在势能的作用下,自然向周边区域输送汇集,维持着周边地区的生态过程和社会经济活动,因此,青藏高原的水塔功能对于周边地区的生态系统和社会经济系统是极其重要的。     

中国兴凯湖北岸平原晚全新世花粉记录及泥炭沼泽形成

通过兴凯湖北岸平原泥炭剖面高分辩率花粉分析研究，对晚全新世花粉划分4个组合带。XKH-4组合时期(1857～1746aB．P．)为沼泽发育前期，这一时期花粉浓度小，陆生草本植物占优势，气候干冷。XKH-3组合时期(1746～1287aB．P．)为沼泽发育早期，这一时期花粉浓度较大，且水生植物花粉含量为剖面最高，喜温落叶阔叶植物大发展时期，气候温和湿润。XKH-2组合时期(1287～602aB．P．)为沼泽发育中期，这一时期花粉浓度最小，但以陆生草本植物为主，木本植物为辅，水生植物急剧减少，针叶植物出现两次高峰，气候向冷干方向发展。XKH-1组合时期(602aB．P．至今)为沼泽发育盛期，这一时期花粉浓度最大，陆生草本植物大发展时期，气候波动较大。     

洪湖的环境变迁与生态保护

洪湖历史上经历了多次变迁，在同类型湖泊中表现出其生态的复杂性和多样性。通过分析洪湖从成湖以来所发生的的湖泊环境变化，阐述了人类活动对洪湖环境带来的一系列生态问题，对洪湖生态环境的恢复与优化提出对策与建议；同时，对于洪湖省级湿地自然保护区的建设和管理提出了科学的、可操作的具体措施。     

Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

The diurnal and seasonal characteristics of urban heat island variation in Beijing city and surrounding areas and impact factors based on remote sensing satellite data

Based on the land surface temperature (LST), the land cover classification map,vegetation coverage, and surface evapotranspiration derived from EOS-MODIS satellite data, and by the use of GIS spatial analytic technique and multivariate statistical analysis method, the urban heat island (UHI) spatial distribution of the diurnal and seasonal variabilities and its driving forces are studied in Beijing city and surrounding areas in 2001. The relationships among UHI distribution and landcover categories, topographic factor, vegetation greenness, and surface evapotranspiration are analyzed. The results indicate that: (i) The significant UHI occur in Beijing city areas in the four seasons due to high heat capacity and multi-reflection of compression building, as well as with special topographic features of its three sides surrounded by mountains,especially in the summer. The UHI spatial distribution is corresponding with the urban geometry structure profile. The LST difference is approximately 4-6℃ between Beijing city and suburb areas, comparatively is 8- 10℃ between Beijing city area and outer suburb area in northwestern regions. (ii) The UHI distribution and intensity in daytime are different from nighttime in Beijing city area, the nighttime UHI is obvious. However, in the daytime, the significant UHI mainly appears in the summer, the autumn takes second place, and the UHI in the winter and the spring seem not obvious. The surface evapotranspiration in suburb areas is larger than that in urban areas in the summer, and high latent heat exchange is evident, which leads to LST difference between city area and suburb area. (iii) The reflection of surface landcover categories is sensitive to the UHI, the correlation between vegetation greenness and UHI shows obviously negative.The scatterplot shows that there is the negative correlation between NDVI and LST (R2 = 0.6481).The results demonstrate that the vegetation greenness is an important factor for reducing the UHI,and large-scale construction of greenbelts can considerably reduce the UHI effect.     

Chemical forms of heavy metal contaminants in sediments of Miyun reservoir

The chemical forms, spatial distribution and sources of As, Hg, Cd, Pb and Zn in sediments of the Miyun reservoir were studied. The results of sequential extraction demonstrate that most of As, Pb and Zn were bound to the residual fraction, Hg was associated with the sulfide fraction while Cd was associated with the carbonate fraction and the residual fraction. On the vertical profiles the concentrations of the heavy metals in total and each fractions mostly decreased with increasing depths in sediments, suggesting that the heavy metals input from the upstream watershed increases yearly. Summation of the residual fraction, the sulfide fraction and the carbonate fraction accounts for 60.03%―85.60% of the total heavy metal contents in the sediments, which represent the geochemical background values of the elements and relate closely to soil erosion. Results of the main factor analysis show that most sediments of the reservoir come from the upstream soil erosion, the point source pollution and domestic waste. Moreover, the microbial activities taking place on the sediment-water interface are also one of the major factors to cause the increasing content of the organic matter fraction and the iron-manganese oxide fraction. Environmental change of the reservoir water could make the removability of the heavy metals increase, leading to the increase of their concentrations in pore water in sediments, and imperiling water quality of the reservoir.     

沙坡头没蒿和柠条叶片δ13C 和 N 含量的季节变化特征

通过对腾格里沙漠东南缘沙坡头人工固沙区油蒿和柠条叶片稳定碳同位素分辨率（△）和N 含量的测定，研究了不同种植方式下油蒿和柠条叶片△ 和 N 含量的季节变化及其关系。结果表明：在不同种植方式下，两种植物的△ 与 N 含量在不同月份之间均存在显著差异。油蒿叶片 △ 极显著高于柠条的：在不同种植方式下，油蒿单种下 △ 显著高于混种，柠条则反之。 油蒿叶片 N 含量极显著低于柠条的：不同种植方式下柠条叶片 N 含量无显著差异，而单种油蒿叶片 N 含量则显著低于混种。在 △ 与 N 含量的关系中，柠条叶片 △ 与 N 在两种生境、单种和混种下均极显著正相关，雨明柠条叶片 N 含量可以作为其 △ 与 N 含量的季节变化及其关系在不同微生境有所差异。     

基于小波包变换特征向量提取的隐蔽水声通信性能评价方法研究

针对水声通信系统的隐蔽性缺乏客观、有效的评价手段,提出一种基于小波包变换提取信号特征向量并比较特征向量相似度的信号隐蔽性评价算法。为了区别截获信号和环境噪声,考虑从能量分布特征的角度,提取截获信号的特征参数。所提算法利用小波包变换具有更高的时频分辨率、自适应选择频带等特点,获取信号的小波包能量占比、小波包能量熵、小波包尺度熵,采用上述 3 个特征参数组成特征向量和利用余弦相似度算法判别信号隐蔽性。仿真实验和海试结果表明,所提方法得到的信号隐蔽性能基本符合实际信号隐蔽性能随信噪比变化规律,为隐蔽水声通信系统评估设计和水声对抗性能评级提供有效参考。