Climate and human health: synthesizing environmental complexity and uncertainty

Broad relationships between weather and human health have long been recognized, and there is currently a large body of research examining the impacts of climate change on human health. Much of the literature in this area examines climate–health relationships at global or regional levels, incorporating mostly generalized responses of pathogens and vectors to broad changes in climate. Far less research has been done to understand the direct and indirect climate-mediated processes involved at finer scales. Thus, some studies simplify the role of climate and may over- or under-estimate the potential response, while others have begun to highlight the subtle and complex role for climate that is contingent on other relevant processes occurring in natural and social environments. These fundamental processes need to be understood to determine the effects of past, current and future climate variation and change on human health. We summarize the principal climate variables and climate-dependent processes that are believed to impact human health across a representative set of diseases, along with key uncertainties in these relationships.     

On the theoretical evaluation of the hubble red-shift constant

Some modifications to the model of M17 proposed by Elliott and Meaburn (1975) are suggested.     

The origin of chondrules: experimental investigation of metastable liquids in the system Mg2SiO4-SiO2

Laser-melted magnesium silicate droplets, supercooled 400–750°C below their equilibrium liquidus temperatures before crystallization, were examined to provide a comparison with meteoritic and lunar chondrules and to examine physicochemical parameters that may indicate the conditions of their formation. Internal textures of the spherules strikingly resemble textures observed in some chondrules. Definite trends in crystal morphology, crystal width and texture were established with respect to nucleation temperature and bulk composition. Such trends provide a framework for determining the nucleation temperature of chondrules. The only phase to nucleate from the supercooled forsterite-enstatite normative melts was forsterite, which was present in more-than-normative amounts. Highly siliceous glass (~65wt. % SiO₂) was identified interstitially to the forsterite crystals in seven of the spherules and is thought to be present in all. The presence of enstatite and the large proportion of crystals in some meteoritic chondrules implies that they were maintained at temperatures considerably in excess of 600°C at some point in their history.     

Extinguishing disaster in Alpine France: The fate of reforestation as technocratic debacle

In 19th-century France, concepts of alpine degradation formed the basis of ambitious state policies to reforest the Alps, Pyrenees, and Massif Central. Responding to the reality of large-scale flooding and to assumptions about the destructiveness of agro-pastoralism, both the Second-Empire and early Third-Republic regimes formulated legislation allowing for both voluntary and mandatory alpine reforestation projects. The latter regime's law of 1882 on the restoration and conservation of alpine lands was more conciliatory toward alpine agro-pastoralists; however, two case studies demonstrate that foresters attempted to overstep the limits of this more restrictive law. These actions conduced to rural protest which stymied the reforestation schemes. Although foresters could claim victory following the amended reforestation law of 1913, reduced budgets and a reduced forestry corps after World War One prevented its full implementation. Ultimately, geographers and some foresters revised scientific thinking about the history of deforestation, alpine ecology, and the place of humans in the mountains.     

Vulnerability assessment in urban areas exposed to flood risk: methodology to explore green infrastructure benefits in a simulation scenario involving the Cañaveralejo River in Cali,Colombia

Natural Hazards - Building resilient infrastructure is one of the major challenges faced by cities due to increasing urbanization rates and climate change. Furthermore, the application of...     

Seismic studies of the Brasília fold belt at the western border of the São Francisco Craton, Central Brazil, using receiver function, surface-wave dispersion and teleseismic tomography

The Tocantins Province in Central Brazil is composed of a series of SSW–NNE trending terranes of mainly Proterozoic ages, which stabilized in the Neoproterozoic in the final collision between the Amazon and São Francisco cratons. No previous information on crustal seismic properties was available for this region. Several broadband stations were used to study the regional patterns of crustal and upper mantle structure, extending the results of a recent E–W seismic refraction profile. Receiver functions and surface wave dispersion showed a thin crust (33–37 km) in the Neoproterozoic Magmatic Arc terrane. High average crustal Vp/Vs ratios (1.74–1.76) were consistently observed in this unit. The foreland domain of the Brasília foldbelt, on the other hand, is characterized by thicker crust (42–43 km). Low Vp/Vs ratios (1.70–1.72) were observed in the low-grade foreland fold and thrust zone of the Brasília belt adjacent to the São Francisco craton. Teleseismic P-wave tomography shows that the lithospheric upper mantle has lower velocities beneath the Magmatic Arc and Goiás Massif compared with the foreland zone of the belt and São Francisco craton. The variations in crustal thickness and upper mantle velocities observed with the broadband stations correlate well with the measurements along the seismic refraction profile. The integration of all seismic observations and gravity data indicates a strong lithospheric contrast between the Goiás Massif and the foreland domain of the Brasília belt, whereas little variation was found across the foldbelt/craton surface boundary. These results support the hypothesis that the Brasília foreland domain and the São Francisco craton were part of a larger São Francisco-Congo continental plate in the final collision with the Amazon plate.     

Density models for the upper atmosphere

Modeling the effects of atmospheric drag is one of the more important problems associated with the determination of the orbit of a near-earth satellite. Errors in the drag model can lead to significant errors in the determination and prediction of the satellite motion. The uncertainty in the drag acceleration can be attributed to three separate effects: (a) errors in the atmospheric density model, (b) errors in the ballistic coefficient, and (c) errors in the satellite relative velocity. In a number of contemporary satellite missions, the requirements for performing the orbit determination and predictions in near real-time has placed an emphasis on density model computation time as well as the model accuracy. In this investigation, a comparison is made of three contemporary atmospheric density models which are candidates for meeting the current orbit computation requirements. The models considered are the analytic Jacchia-Roberts model, the modified Harris-Priester model, and the USSR Cosmos satellite derived density model. The computational characteristics of each of the models are compared and a modification to the modified Harris-Priester model is proposed which improves its ability to represent the diurnal variation in the atmospheric density.This investigation was supported by the NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center under contract NAS5-20946 and Contract NSG 5154.