Implications of uncertain future fossil energy resources on bioenergy use and terrestrial carbon emissions

The magnitude and character of the global resource base of fossil fuels is a key determinant of the evolution of the future global energy system and corresponding fossil fuel carbon emissions. What is less well understood is the potential magnitude of impact of the availability of fossil fuels, due to the interaction with biomass energy, on agriculture, land use, ecosystems and therefore carbon emissions from land-use change. This paper explores these links and implications. We show that if oil resources are limited, then the consequently higher price for liquids induces both the use of coal-to-liquids technology deployment, but also enhanced production of bioenergy crops particularly in a business-as-usual scenario. This in turn implies greater pressure to convert unmanaged ecosystems to produce bioenergy, and higher rates of terrestrial carbon emissions from land use.     

An early warning system for wave-driven coastal flooding at Imperial Beach,CA

Natural Hazards - Waves overtop berms and seawalls along the shoreline of Imperial Beach (IB), CA when energetic winter swell and high tide coincide. These intermittent, few-hour long events flood...     

STAGES: the Space Telescope A901/2 Galaxy Evolution Survey

We present an overview of the Space Telescope A901/2 Galaxy Evolution Survey (STAGES). STAGES is a multiwavelength project designed to probe physical drivers of galaxy evolution across a wide range of environments and luminosity. A complex multicluster system at   z ∼ 0.165  has been the subject of an 80-orbit F606W Hubble Space Telescope (HST) /Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) mosaic covering the full     span of the supercluster. Extensive multiwavelength observations with XMM–Newton , GALEX, Spitzer , 2dF, Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope and the 17-band COMBO-17 photometric redshift survey complement the HST imaging. Our survey goals include simultaneously linking galaxy morphology with other observables such as age, star formation rate, nuclear activity and stellar mass. In addition, with the multiwavelength data set and new high-resolution mass maps from gravitational lensing, we are able to disentangle the large-scale structure of the system. By examining all aspects of an environment we will be able to evaluate the relative importance of the dark matter haloes, the local galaxy density and the hot X-ray gas in driving galaxy transformation. This paper describes the HST imaging, data reduction and creation of a master catalogue. We perform the Sérsic fitting on the HST images and conduct associated simulations to quantify completeness. In addition, we present the COMBO-17 photometric redshift catalogue and estimates of stellar masses and star formation rates for this field. We define galaxy and cluster sample selection criteria, which will be the basis for forthcoming science analyses, and present a compilation of notable objects in the field. Finally, we describe the further multiwavelength observations and announce public access to the data and catalogues.     

Comparison of AnnAGNPS and SWAT model simulation results in USDA‐CEAP agricultural watersheds in south‐central Kansas

This study was conducted under the USDA‐Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) in the Cheney Lake watershed in south‐central Kansas. The Cheney Lake watershed has been identified as ‘impaired waters’ under Section 303(d) of the Federal Clean Water Act for sediments and total phosphorus. The USDA‐CEAP seeks to quantify environmental benefits of conservation programmes on water quality by monitoring and modelling. Two of the most widely used USDA watershed‐scale models are Annualized AGricultural Non‐Point Source (AnnAGNPS) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The objectives of this study were to compare hydrology, sediment, and total phosphorus simulation results from AnnAGNPS and SWAT in separate calibration and validation watersheds. Models were calibrated in Red Rock Creek watershed and validated in Goose Creek watershed, both sub‐watersheds of the Cheney Lake watershed. Forty‐five months (January 1997 to September 2000) of monthly measured flow and water quality data were used to evaluate the two models. Both models generally provided from fair to very good correlation and model efficiency for simulating surface runoff and sediment yield during calibration and validation (correlation coefficient; R², from 0·50 to 0·89, Nash Sutcliffe efficiency index, E, from 0·47 to 0·73, root mean square error, RMSE, from 0·25 to 0·45 m³ s^?1 for flow, from 158 to 312 Mg for sediment yield). Total phosphorus predictions from calibration and validation of SWAT indicated good correlation and model efficiency (R² from 0·60 to 0·70, E from 0·63 to 0·68) while total phosphorus predictions from validation of AnnAGNPS were from unsatisfactory to very good (R² from 0·60 to 0·77, E from ? 2·38 to 0·32). The root mean square error–observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) was estimated as excellent (from 0·08 to 0·25) for the all model simulated parameters during the calibration and validation study. The percentage bias (PBIAS) of the model simulated parameters varied from unsatisfactory to excellent (from 128 to 3). This study determined SWAT to be the most appropriate model for this watershed based on calibration and validation results. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tephra layers in the Byrd Station ice core and the Dome C ice core, Antarctica and their climatic importance

Volcanic glass shards from tephra layers in the Byrd Station ice core were chemically analyzed by electron microprobe. Tephra in seven layers have similar peralkaline trachyte compositions. The tephra are believed to originate from Mt. Takahe, on the basis of their chemical similarity to analyzed rocks from Mt. Takahe and because dated rock samples from the volcano are younger than 250,000 years old. Glass shards from 726 m deep in the Dome C ice core, which is 2400 km from Byrd Station, are composed of peralkaline trachyte and may have also been derived from Mt. Takahe. The tephra could have resulted from eruptions which were triggered by increased ice loading during the late Wisconsin glaciation. Preliminary grain size data suggest the eruptions were only minor and they were unlikely to have instantaneously altered global climate as have explosive eruptions in the tropics. Nevertheless, the effect of this localized volcanic activity upon the Antarctic energy budget warrants further investigation.     

Global radiation within corn

Global and net solar radiation profiles were measured by traversing sensors at four heights in a square-sown plot and a row plot of field corn on four relatively cloudless days in August 1972. The fluxes and their vertical distributions are discussed. A numerical model of the short-wave radiation fluxes in a canopy is presented. Using leaf area index and fixed leaf radiative properties, calculated values of radiation are within 10% of measurements in most instances. The performance under predominantly beam or diffuse radiation is similar and model values of crop albedo compare well with values calculated from radiation measurements above the crops.     

<Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar dating of the eruptive history of Mount Erebus,Antarctica: volcano evolution

Mt. Erebus, a 3,794-meter-high active polygenetic stratovolcano, is composed of voluminous anorthoclase-phyric tephriphonolite and phonolite lavas overlying unknown volumes of poorly exposed, less differentiated lavas. The older basanite to phonotephrite lavas crop out on Fang Ridge, an eroded remnant of a proto-Erebus volcano and at other isolated locations on the flanks of the Mt. Erebus edifice. Anorthoclase feldspars in the phonolitic lavas are large (~10 cm), abundant (~30–40%) and contain numerous melt inclusions. Although excess argon is known to exist within the melt inclusions, rigorous sample preparation was used to remove the majority of the contaminant. Twenty-five sample sites were dated by the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method (using 20 anorthoclase, 5 plagioclase and 9 groundmass concentrates) to examine the eruptive history of the volcano. Cape Barne, the oldest site, is 1,311±16 ka and represents the first of three stages of eruptive activity on the Mt. Erebus edifice. It shows a transition from sub-aqueous to sub-aerial volcanism that may mark the initiation of proto-Erebus eruptive activity. It is inferred that a further ~300 ky of basanitic/phonotephritic volcanism built a low, broad platform shield volcano. Cessation of the shield-building phase is marked by eruptions at Fang Ridge at ~1,000 ka. The termination of proto-Erebus eruptive activity is marked by the stratigraphically highest flow at Fang Ridge (758±20 ka). Younger lavas (~550–250 ka) on a modern-Erebus edifice are characterized by phonotephrites, tephriphonolites and trachytes. Plagioclase-phyric phonotephrite from coastal and flank flows yield ages between 531±38 and 368±18 ka. The initiation of anorthoclase tephriphonolite occurred in the southwest sector of the volcano at and around Turks Head (243±10 ka). A short pulse of effusive activity marked by crustal contamination occurred ~160 ka as indicated by at least two trachytic flows (157±6 and 166±10 ka). Most anorthoclase-phyric lavas, characteristic of Mt. Erebus, are less than 250 ka. All Mt. Erebus flows between about 250 and 90 ka are anorthoclase tephriphonolite in composition.Editorial responsibility: J. Donelly-Nolan     

Three-dimensional outlier detection for GPS networks and their densification via the BLIMPBE approach

This article discusses outlier detection based on Baarda's theory, but applied to three-dimensional GPS baseline vectors, as compared to the traditional approach of investigating the vector components individually (one-dimensional). In addition, Schaffrin's recently proposed estimator of type BLIMPBE is discussed and contrasted with a minimum constrained least-squares adjustment, specifically Partial-MINOLESS. A more detailed discussion of these topics, which includes additional formulas and derivations, can be found in the first author's Master of Science thesis, hereinafter referred to as Report 465.     

Lithostratigraphy of the Mérida (Wisconsinan) glaciation and Pedregal interstade, Mérida Andes, northwestern Venezuela

At Pedregal, more than 40 m of sediments are exposed within a ‘fan complex’ formed between lateral moraines of the adjacent Mucuchache and El Caballo valleys. Early and late Mérida (Wisconsinan) glaciations are represented by till and till plus proglacial sediments, respectively. A middle Wisconsinan interstadial event, here termed the Pedregal interstade, began at the end of the Early Mérida glaciation at approximately 60 ka BP. Following the retreat of ice from the small Pedregal Basin, a lake formed when the local drainage was blocked due to movement of the Mesa de Caballo along the Boconó Fault. Shallow lake or no-lake phases lasted approximately a few hundred to, at most, 2000 years, and each lake phase was marked by peat accumulation. Four of seven peats identified formed during sufficiently long intervals for soil profiles (incipient to mature Spodosols) also to develop. The Spodosol with the strongest development (Eb/Bsb/Coxb/Cub horizons) is found adjacent to the lowest peat and reflects ongoing early Mérida stadial (MIS 3) conditions; the youngest peats, associated with weak podzolic soils (Eb/Bsb horizons), formed under slightly warmer interstadial conditions, presumably with less soil water. Cyclic lacustrine deposition is related to lake level and relative depth fluctuations, due in part to variable shoreline/delta progradation and shallowing as the lake deepened in general. Whereas final drainage of the lake is related to movement of the Boconó Fault and breach of the moraines that form the Mesa de Caballo, earlier lake level fluctuations appear related to climate change. Radiocarbon dating of the peats suggests they are related to warmer periods and may tentatively correlate with small ‘interstadials’ or ‘D-O events’ detected in the oxygen-isotope record of Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic marine sediments.