Variances in the projections,resulting from CLIMEX,Boosted Regression Trees and Random Forests techniques

The aim of this study was to have a comparative investigation and evaluation of the capabilities of correlative and mechanistic modeling processes, applied to the projection of future distributions of date palm in novel environments and to establish a method of minimizing uncertainty in the projections of differing techniques. The location of this study on a global scale is in Middle Eastern Countries. We compared the mechanistic model CLIMEX (CL) with the correlative models MaxEnt (MX), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), and Random Forests (RF) to project current and future distributions of date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.). The Global Climate Model (GCM), the CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) using the A2 emissions scenario, was selected for making projections. Both indigenous and alien distribution data of the species were utilized in the modeling process. The common areas predicted by MX, BRT, RF, and CL from the CS GCM were extracted and compared to ascertain projection uncertainty levels of each individual technique. The common areas identified by all four modeling techniques were used to produce a map indicating suitable and unsuitable areas for date palm cultivation for Middle Eastern countries, for the present and the year 2100. The four different modeling approaches predict fairly different distributions. Projections from CL were more conservative than from MX. The BRT and RF were the most conservative methods in terms of projections for the current time. The combination of the final CL and MX projections for the present and 2100 provide higher certainty concerning those areas that will become highly suitable for future date palm cultivation. According to the four models, cold, hot, and wet stress, with differences on a regional basis, appears to be the major restrictions on future date palm distribution. The results demonstrate variances in the projections, resulting from different techniques. The assessment and interpretation of model projections requires reservations, especially in correlative models such as MX, BRT, and RF. Intersections between different techniques may decrease uncertainty in future distribution projections. However, readers should not miss the fact that the uncertainties are mostly because the future GHG emission scenarios are unknowable with sufficient precision. Suggestions towards methodology and processing for improving projections are included.     

A new approach to identify the sensitivity and importance of physical parameters combination within numerical models using the Lund–Potsdam–Jena (LPJ) model as an example

Daily global solar irradiation (R _s) is one of the main inputs in environmental modeling. Because of the lack of its measuring facilities, high-quality and long-term data are limited. In this research, R _s values were estimated based on measured sunshine duration and cloud cover of our synoptic meteorological stations in central and southern Iran during 2008, 2009, and 2011. Clear sky solar irradiation was estimated from linear regression using extraterrestrial solar irradiation as the independent variable with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 4.69 %. Daily R _s was calibrated using measured sunshine duration and cloud cover data under different sky conditions during 2008 and 2009. The 2011 data were used for model validation. According to the results, in the presence of clouds, the R _s model using sunshine duration data was more accurate when compared with the model using cloud cover data (NRMSE = 11. 69 %). In both models, with increasing sky cloudiness, the accuracy decreased. In the study region, more than 92 % of sunshine durations were clear or partly cloudy, which received close to 95 % of total solar irradiation. Hence, it was possible to estimate solar irradiation with a good accuracy in most days with the measurements of sunshine duration.     

The impact of different cooling strategies on urban air temperatures: the cases of Campinas,Brazil and Mendoza,Argentina

This paper describes different ways of reducing urban air temperature and their results in two cities: Campinas, Brazil—a warm temperate climate with a dry winter and hot summer (Cwa), and Mendoza, Argentina—a desert climate with cold steppe (BWk). A high-resolution microclimate modeling system—ENVI-met 3.1—was used to evaluate the thermal performance of an urban canyon in each city. A total of 18 scenarios were simulated including changes in the surface albedo, vegetation percentage, and the H/W aspect ratio of the urban canyons. These results revealed the same trend in behavior for each of the combinations of strategies evaluated in both cities. Nevertheless, these strategies produce a greater temperature reduction in the warm temperate climate (Cwa). Increasing the vegetation percentage reduces air temperatures and mean radiant temperatures in all scenarios. In addition, there is a greater decrease of urban temperature with the vegetation increase when the H/W aspect ratio is lower. Also, applying low albedo on vertical surfaces and high albedo on horizontal surfaces is successful in reducing air temperatures without raising the mean radiant temperature. The best combination of strategies—60 % of vegetation, low albedos on walls and high albedos on pavements and roofs, and 1.5 H/W—could reduce air temperatures up to 6.4 °C in Campinas and 3.5 °C in Mendoza.     

Long-term monitoring of wall paintings affected by soluble salts

Long-term monitoring of wall paintings in historical monuments aims at clarifying involved decay processes and at the same time controlling effects of interventions for conservation. Monitored decay processes relate to the crystallisation of various salts – particularly of nitronatrite and gypsum – from hygroscopic solutions accumulated in the zone of ground moisture. The salts crystallise in response to climatic variations and other environmental changes. Measures for conservation such as protection from water infiltration, reduction of heating temperature and reduction of surface salt accumulation cause a significant slow-down but not a stop of decay. The particular dynamics and causes of remaining slow decay processes are described on three sites in Switzerland: the convent church of Müstair, the crypt in the cathedral of Basel and the crypt in the Grossmünster church of Zürich.     

Mineralogy of suspended sediment in three karst springs

Springs in karstic carbonate rocks frequently carry a sediment load as well as a dissolved load. Analysis of morphology and mineralogy of suspended sediment from three contrasting karst springs reveals a suite of clastic particles that reflect both source areas and processes that take place within the aquifer. Nolte Spring in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, USA, discharges sediment of apparently precipitated calcite, indicating that at some point in the aquifer or vadose zone, water exceeds saturation with respect to calcite. Sediment morphologies and chemical conditions in the aquifer point to two different scenarios for this precipitation. The other two springs, Arch Spring in Blair County, Pennsylvania and Bushkill Spring in Northampton County, Pennsylvania, show no evidence of calcite precipitation. Arch Spring discharges mainly layer silicates, while Bushkill Spring discharges mainly silica.

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Resumen Los manantiales en rocas carbonatadas karstficadas tienen frecuentemente una carga de sedimentos y de sólidos disueltos. Los análisis de la morfología y mineralogía de los sedimentos suspendidos de tres manantiales kársticos contrastados revela un conjunto de partículas clásticas que reflejan ambas áreas fuente y los procesos que tienen lugar dentro del acuífero. Nolte Spring en el Condado de Lancaster, Pennsylvania, USA, descarga sedimento de calcita aparentemente precipitada indicando que en cierto punto del acuífero o en la zona vadosa, el agua supera la saturación con respecto a la calcita. La morfología de los sedimentos y las condiciones químicas en el acuífero apuntan a dos escenarios diferentes para esta precipitación. Los otras dos manantiales, Arch Spring en el Condado de Blair, Pennsylvania y Bushkill Spring en el Condado de Norhtampton, Pennsylvania, no muestran evidencia de precitación de calcita. Arch Spring descarga principalmente filosilicatos mientras que Bushkill Spring descarga fundamentalmente Sílice.

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Résumé Les sources situées en contexte carbonaté karstique charrient fréquemment, outre les matières dissoutes, une charge solide. La morphologie et la minéralogie des sédiments en suspension issus de trois sources karstiques de caractéristiques distinctes ont été analysées : une série de particules clastiques, reflétant à la fois les secteurs des sources et les processus internes de l’aquifère, en ressort. Les sédiments issus de Nolte Spring (Comté de Lancaster, Pennsylvanie, Etats-Unis) sont constitués de calcite apparemment précipitée: ceci indique que l’eau atteint la sursaturation vis-à-vis de la calcite à un certain point de l’aquifère ou de la zone non-saturée. La morphologie des sédiments et les conditions chimiques au sein de l’aquifère mènent à deux scénarii différents pour expliquer cette précipitation. Les deux autres sources, Arch Spring (Comté de Blair, Pennsylvanie) et Bushkill Spring (Comté de Northampton, Pennsylvanie), ne présentent aucun indice de précipitation de calcite. Arch Spring exporte essentiellement des phyllosilicates, alors que la silice est majoritaire à Bushkill Spring.

     

The application of satellite differential SAR interferometry-derived ground displacements in hydrogeology

The application of satellite differential synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry, principally coherent (InSAR) and to a lesser extent, persistent-scatterer (PSI) techniques to hydrogeologic studies has improved capabilities to map, monitor, analyze, and simulate groundwater flow, aquifer-system compaction and land subsidence. A number of investigations over the previous decade show how the spatially detailed images of ground displacements measured with InSAR have advanced hydrogeologic understanding, especially when a time series of images is used in conjunction with histories of changes in water levels and management practices. Important advances include: (1) identifying structural or lithostratigraphic boundaries (e.g. faults or transitional facies) of groundwater flow and deformation; (2) defining the material and hydraulic heterogeneity of deforming aquifer-systems; (3) estimating system properties (e.g. storage coefficients and hydraulic conductivities); and (4) constraining numerical models of groundwater flow, aquifer-system compaction, and land subsidence. As a component of an integrated approach to hydrogeologic monitoring and characterization of unconsolidated alluvial groundwater basins differential SAR interferometry contributes unique information that can facilitate improved management of groundwater resources. Future satellite SAR missions specifically designed for differential interferometry will enhance these contributions.     

Analytical solutions of the diffraction problem of a group of truncated vertical cylinders

An exact analytical method is described to solve the diffraction problem of a group of truncated vertical cylinders. In order to account for the interaction between the cylinders, Kagemoto and Yue's exact algebraic method is utilised. The isolated cylinder diffraction potential due to incident waves is obtained using Garret's solution and evanescent mode solutions are derived in a similar manner.Numerical results are presented for arrays of two and four cylinders. Comparisons between the results obtained from the method presented here and those obtained from numerical methods show excellent agreement.     

A Sensitive and Versatile Multiplex PCR System for the Rapid Detection of Enterotoxigenic (ETEC), Enterohaemorrhagic (EHEC) and Enteropathogenic (EPEC) Strains of Escherichia coli

Although Escherichia coli is widely distributed in the marine environment, only a small percentage are pathogenic to humans. Nonetheless, the widespread occurrence of waterborne infections of E. coli origin in humans has become one of the major health problems worldwide. To date, several types of enterovirulent E. coli have been recognized as the aetiologic agents of various gastrointestinal infections in humans. The most commonly encountered are those belonging to the enterotoxigenic (ETEC), enteroinvasive (EIEC), enterohaemorrhagic (EHEC) and enteropathogenic (EPEC) subtypes. In order to better determine the health risks that are associated with exposure to some of these specific subtypes, we have developed a very sensitive multiplex PCR system for the rapid detection and typing of ETEC, EHEC and possibly EPEC strains of E. coli in the aquatic environment. The target genes chosen for this investigation included: the PHO-A housekeeping gene (present in all E. coli); the LT1, LT2 and ST1 genes of ETEC; the VT1 and VT2 verotoxin, and EAE virulence genes of EHEC and EPEC, respectively. Six pairs of oligonucleotide primers were designed to simultaneously amplify internal fragments of these genes by multiplex PCR to generate PCR products that could be analysed and confirmed with relative ease by gel electrophoresis and HincII enzyme digestion. The results showed that the six sets of PCR primers were highly specific for their target genes and produced specific amplimers of the expected size from several control strains of E. coli – ATCC 35401 (LT1+/ST1+); SA53 (LT2+/VT2+); and O157 (VT1+/VT2+/EAE+). The detection sensitivity of the multiplex PCR system for the six target genes in an E. coli cell mixture was optimized and enhanced by preincubating serially diluted cells in Luria-Bertani broth for 6 h prior to PCR analysis. The results obtained indicated a detection sensitivity of 10° CFU (of each strain) per 100 μl reaction. Multiplex PCR analysis of seawater samples collected from four sewage-polluted sites in Hong Kong indicated the presence in all four samples of E. coli bacteria that were positive for LT1, ST1, VT1 and EAE virulence genes. Overall, the data indicated that the multiplex PCR system described in this study is a potentially very useful and powerful method for routine monitoring and risk assessment of water quality.     

小型氰化厂的技术管理

本文简述了小型氰化厂的技术管理方法和实际操作过程,应用该方法提高选矿厂的生产技术指标和经济效益。     

Reduction of pounding effects in elevated bridges during earthquakes

Pounding of adjacent superstructure segments in elevated bridges during severe earthquakes can result in significant structural damage. The aim of this paper is to analyse several methods of reduction of the negative effects of collisions induced by the seismic wave propagation effect. The analysis is conducted on a detailed three‐dimensional structural component model of an isolated highway bridge. The results show that the influence of pounding on the structural response is significant in the longitudinal direction of the bridge and significantly depends on the gap size between superstructure segments. The smallest response can be obtained for very small gap sizes and for gap sizes large enough to prevent pounding. Further analysis indicates that the bridge behaviour can be effectively improved by placing hard rubber bumpers between segments and by stiff linking the segments one with another. The experimental results show that, for the practical application of such connectors, shock transmission units can be used. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.