Nutrient stoichiometry and eutrophication in Indian mangroves

Stoichiometry of dissolved nutrients in five important mangrove ecosystems of India (Sundarban, Bhitarkanika, Coringa, Pichavaram and Mangalavanam) was analyzed to describe the ecological and nutrient status of the inter-tidal mangroves in response to increasing human perturbations. The stoichiometric proportions of dissolved nutrients in mangroves highly deviated from the standard Redfield ratio (Si:N:P = 16:16:1), primarily because of the allochthonous nutrients derived from anthropogenic activities. In all mangroves, Si:N ratios were >1, which indicates that high silica is supplied from the terrestrial weathering to mangrove waters. Despite high phosphate loadings along with nitrogen from both point and non-point sources to mangrove waters, N:P ratios (Sundarban 11.43; Bhitarkanika 6.48; Coringa, 5.46; Pichavaram, 7.31 and Mangalavanam 4.64) demonstrate that phosphorus was a limiting nutrient in all mangrove ecosystems. The long-term nutrient analysis in Pichavaram mangrove water explains that the significant increase in dissolved nutrients since the 1980s is mainly derived from non-point sources (e.g., agriculture, aquaculture, etc.) that alter biogeochemical processes in this ecosystem. This study clearly reports that the ecological status of the Indian sub-continent mangroves is highly disturbed by anthropogenic impacts. Therefore, an appraisal of the nutrient ratios and sufficiency in mangroves facilitated an understanding of the current environmental conditions of coastal ecosystems, which further led to the proposal of the long-term observational research coupled with modeling to develop sustainable management strategies for conservation and restoration of mangroves.     

Role of ocean–atmosphere interaction on northward propagation of Indian summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO)

Atmospheric dynamical mechanisms have been prevalently used to explain the characteristics of the summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO), which dictates the wet and dry spells of the monsoon rainfall. Recent studies show that ocean–atmosphere coupling has a vital role in simulating the observed amplitude and relationship between precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) at the intraseasonal scale. However it is not clear whether this role is simply ‘passive’ response to the atmospheric forcing alone, or ‘active’ in modulating the northward propagation of MISO, and also whether the extent to which it modulates is considerably noteworthy. Using coupled NCEP–Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) model and its atmospheric component the Global Forecast System (GFS), we investigate the relative role of the atmospheric dynamics and the ocean–atmosphere coupling in the initiation, maintenance, and northward propagation of MISO. Three numerical simulations are performed including (1) CFSv2 coupled with high frequency interactive SST, the GFS forced with both (2) observed monthly SST (interpolated to daily) and (3) daily SST obtained from the CFSv2 simulations. Both CFSv2 and GFS simulate MISO of slightly higher period (~60 days) than observations (~45 days) and have reasonable seasonal rainfall over India. While MISO simulated by CFSv2 has realistic northward propagation, both the GFS model experiments show standing mode of MISO over India with no northward propagation of convection from the equator. The improvement in northward propagation in CFSv2, therefore, may not be due to improvement of the model physics in the atmospheric component alone. Our analysis indicates that even with the presence of conducive vertical wind shear, the absence of meridional humidity gradient and moistening of the atmosphere column north of convection hinders the northward movement of convection in GFS. This moistening mechanism works only in the presence of an ‘active’ ocean. In CFSv2, the lead-lag relationship between the atmospheric fluxes, SST and convection are maintained, while such lead-lag is unrealistic in the uncoupled simulations. This leads to the conclusion that high frequent and interactive ocean–atmosphere coupling is a necessary and crucial condition for reproducing the realistic northward propagation of MISO in this particular model.     

A Study on Simulation of Heavy Rainfall Events Over Indian Region with ARW-3DVAR Modeling System

An attempt is made to evaluate the impact of the three dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation within the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) modeling system to simulate two heavy rainfall events which occured on 26–27 July 2005 and 27–30 July 2006. During the 26–27 July 2005 event, the unprecedented localized intense rainfall 90–100 cm was recorded over the northeast parts of Mumbai city; however, southern parts received only 10 cm. Model simulation with the data assimilation experiment is reasonably well predicted for the rainfall intensity (800 mm) in 24 h and with accurate location over Mumbai agreeing with observation. Divergence, vorticity, vertical velocity and moisture parameters are evaluated during the various stages of the event. It is noticed that maximum convergence and vorticity during the mature stage; at the same time the vertical velocity also follows a similar trend during the period in the assimilation experiment. Vorticity budget terms over the location of heavy rainfall revealed that the contribution of the positive tilting term produced positive vorticity which triggered the convection and negative contribution to vorticity from the tilting term to precede the dissipation of the system. Model simulations from the second rain event, the off-shore trough at sea level along the west coast of India, is well represented after assimilation of observations during day-1 and day-2 as compared to the control simulations; the orientation of the off-shore trough is well matched with that of the observed. The intensity and spatial distribution of the rainfall has considerably improved in the assimilation simulation. The statistical skill scores also revealed that the precipitation forecast during the period has appreciably improved due to assimilation of observations. The results of this study indicate a positive impact of the 3DVAR assimilation on the simulation of heavy rainfall events.     

Probability of occurrence of monthly and seasonal winter precipitation over Northwest India based on antecedent-monthly precipitation

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Winter (December, January, and February (DJF)) precipitation over northwest India (NWI) is mainly associated with the eastward moving mid-latitude synoptic...     

Simulation of heavy rainfall events over Indian monsoon region using WRF-3DVAR data assimilation system

We present the results of the impact of the 3D variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate three heavy rainfall events (25–28 June 2005, 29–31 July 2004, and 7–9 August 2002) over the Indian monsoon region. For each event, two numerical experiments were performed. In the first experiment, namely the control simulation (CNTL), the low-resolution global analyses are used as the initial and boundary conditions of the model. In the second experiment (3DV-ANA), the model integration was carried out by inserting additional observations in the model’s initial conditions using the 3DVAR scheme. The 3DVAR used surface weather stations, buoy, ship, radiosonde/rawinsonde, and satellite (oceanic surface wind, cloud motion wind, and cloud top temperature) observations obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). After the successful inclusion of additional observational data using the 3DVAR data assimilation technique, the resulting reanalysis was able to successfully reproduce the structure of convective organization as well as prominent synoptic features associated with the mid-tropospheric cyclones (MTC). The location and intensity of the MTC were better simulated in the 3DV-ANA as compared to the CNTL. The results demonstrate that the improved initial conditions of the mesoscale model using 3DVAR enhanced the location and amount of rainfall over the Indian monsoon region. Model verification and statistical skill were assessed with the help of available upper-air sounding data. The objective verification further highlighted the efficiency of the data assimilation system. The improvements in the 3DVAR run are uniformly better as compared to the CNTL run for all the three cases. The mesoscale 3DVAR data assimilation system is not operational in the weather forecasting centers in India and a significant finding in this study is that the assimilation of Indian conventional and non-conventional observation datasets into numerical weather forecast models can help improve the simulation accuracy of meso-convective activities over the Indian monsoon region. Results from the control experiments also highlight that weather and regional climate model simulations with coarse analysis have high uncertainty in simulating heavy rain events over the Indian monsoon region and assimilation approaches, such as the 3DVAR can help reduce this uncertainty.     

Wave-induced nearshore circulation along the Calangute-Candolim beach,Goa, west coast of India

The wave-induced nearshore circulation model suggested by Noda has been modified and applied for three small segments along the coast of Goa. The present model incorporates the prevailing bottom topography and considers its variation along with the radiation stress as the driving force for the circulation. We find that the flow pattern is strongly dependent on bottom topography. While normal incidence of waves results in a cellular pattern of flow, meandering flows prevail for oblique incidence along the coast. The shoreward flows are always located over shoals while the rip currents prevail over channels. The onshore/offshore flows show magnitudes as high as 3·1 m/s, while those alongshore reach a maximum of 1·1 m/s. When compared with field observations these values are slightly higher.     

Chemical characteristics of PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> aerosols and airmass trajectories over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea during ICARB

For the first time, chemical characterization of PM₁₀ aerosols was attempted over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS) during the ICARB campaign. Dominance of SO ₄ ^2? , NH ₄ ⁺ and NO ₃ ^? was noticed over both the regions which indicated the presence of ammonium sulphate and ammonium nitrate as major water soluble particles playing a very important role in the radiation budget. It was observed that all the chemical constituents had higher concentrations over Bay of Bengal as compared to Arabian Sea. Higher concentrations were observed near the Indian coast showing influence of landmass indicating that gaseous pollutants like SO₂, NH₃ and NO _x are transported over to the sea regions which consequently contribute to higher SO ₄ ^2? , NH ₄ ⁺ and NO ₃ ^? aerosols respectively. The most polluted region over BoB was 13°?19°N and 70°?90°E while it was near 11°N and 75°E over AS. Although the concentrations were higher over Bay of Bengal for all the chemical constituents of PM₁₀ aerosols, per cent non-sea salt (nss) fraction (with respect to Na) was higher over Arabian Sea. Very low Ca2+ concentration was observed at Arabian Sea which led to higher atmospheric acidity as compared to BoB. Nss SO ₄ ^2? alone contributed 48% of total water soluble fraction over BoB as well as AS. Ratios SO ₄ ^2? /NO _? ³ over both the regions (7.8 and 9 over BoB and AS respectively) were very high as compared to reported values at land sites like Allahabad (0.63) and Kanpur (0.66) which may be due to very low NO.3 over sea regions as compared to land sites. Air trajectory analysis showed four classes: (i) airmass passing through Indian land, (ii) from oceanic region, (iii) northern Arabian Sea and Middle East and (iv) African continent. The highest nss SO ₄ ^2? was observed during airmasses coming from the Indian land side while lowest concentrations were observed when the air was coming from oceanic regions. Moderate concentrations of nss SO2. 4 were observed when air was seen moving from the Middle East and African continent. The pH of rainwater was observed to be in the range of 5.9–6.5 which is lower than the values reported over land sites. Similar feature was reported over the Indian Ocean during INDOEX indicating that marine atmosphere had more free acidity than land atmosphere.