Uncertainty of hydrologic simulation,and its impact on the design and the effectiveness of water conservation structures

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - The uncertainties associated with the simulation models are often ignored in operational hydrology. While many methods are available for...     

Contrasting phytoplankton community structure and associated light absorption characteristics of the western Bay of Bengal

Absorption spectra, particulate pigments, and hydrochemical constituents were measured in the western Bay of Bengal (BoB) during July-August 2010 when influence of river discharge is at peak. Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorption coefficient (a_CDOM(440)) displayed a significant inverse linear relationship with salinity in the surface waters implying conservative mixing of marine and terrestrial end members. The northern part of the study area is influenced by discharge from the river Ganga and a dominant terrestrial CDOM signal is seen. The southern part receives discharge from peninsular rivers with corresponding signals of higher CDOM than the linear model would indicate and higher UV-specific absorption coefficient (SUVA) indicating more aged and humified DOM. Lower contribution of CDOM to total non-water absorption and higher phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a absorption coefficient, a_ph(440)) but lower chlorophyll a specific phytoplankton absorption coefficient (a _ph ^* (440)) characterize the northern part, compared to the southern part. Chlorophyll b had a distinct linear relationship with chlorophyll a in the latter. The size index (SI) indicated dominance of microphytoplankton in the northern and nano and picophytoplankton in the southern parts. Chlorophyll a is significantly related to a _ph ^* (440) by an inverse power model in the northern part but by an inverse linear model in the southern part. Our study suggests that knowledge of the phytoplankton community structure is essential to improve chlorophyll a algorithm in the coastal Bay of Bengal.     

Intensified oxygen minimum zone on the western shelf of Bay of Bengal during summer monsoon: influence of river discharge

A study on biogeochemical cycling in the west coastal Bay of Bengal was undertaken during the peak discharge period to understand the influence of enhanced stratification and primary production on the possible intensification of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). Our study reveals that oxygen concentrations were below the detection limits in the northwestern (NW) coastal Bay of Bengal between 100 and 500 m associated with strong stratification and high phytoplankton biomass. Such low oxygen concentrations have never been reported so far from the coastal Bay of Bengal. Despite the existence of an environment conducive to denitrification in the coastal Bay of Bengal, accumulation of neither secondary nitrite nor nitrous oxide (N₂O) was observed. The absence of denitrification was reported to be caused by faster scavenging of organic matter and low bacterial respiration rates; in contrast, our results suggest that neither of these factors are potential reasons for the absence of denitrification in the coastal Bay of Bengal.     

Textural studies on red sediments of Bhimunipatnam,Andhra Pradesh,east coast of India

The study presents the textural characteristics of late Quaternary red sediments of Bhimunipatnam to understand the process of formation of these sediments. The red sediments are classified into (a) yellow sediments (b) reddish brown sediments (c) brick red sediments and (d) light yellow sediments sequence in the vertical litho section. The yellow sediments, rests on the khondalite basement, comprises of medium grained, moderate to poorly sorted and positively skewed. The rounded pebble beds with trough cross bedding indicate high energy turbulent conditions of deposition. The fining upward sequences indicate sediments were deposited under decreasing energy conditions under fluvial regime.The iron bearing minerals like garnets and pyriboles have undergone chemical weathering under high oxidizing environment resulting in addition of silt and clay to the reddish brown and brick red sediments and concretions were formed by carbonate precipitation. These processes caused changes in the mean grain size and sorting nature of these sediments which are originally aeolian in origin. The light yellow sediments were medium to fine grained, well sorted and similar to modern dune sands in terms of textural parameters. These sediments were deposited under low oxidation environmental conditions and acquired yellow colour due to Fe hydroxides.     

Size distribution and roundness of clasts within pseudotachylytes of the Gangavalli Shear Zone,Salem, Tamil Nadu: An insight into its origin and tectonic significance

Gangavalli (Brittle) Shear Zone (Fault) near Attur, Tamil Nadu exposes nearly 50 km long and 1–3 km wide NNE–SSW trending linear belt of cataclasites and pseudotachylyte produced on charnockites of the Southern Granulite Terrane. Pseudotachylytes, as well as the country rock, bear the evidence of conjugate strike slip shearing along NNE–SSW and NW–SE directions, suggesting an N–S compression. The Gangavalli Shear Zone represents the NNE–SSW fault of the conjugate system along which a right lateral shear has produced seismic slip motion giving rise to cataclasites and pseudotachylytes. Pseudotachylytes occur as veins of varying width extending from hairline fracture fills to tens of meters in length. They carry quartz as well as feldspar clasts with sizes of few mm in diameter; the clast sizes show a modified Power law distribution with finer ones (<1000 \({\upmu }\)m\(^{2})\) deviating from linearity. The shape of the clasts shows a high degree of roundness (>0.4) due to thermal decrepitation. In a large instance, devitrification has occurred producing albitic microlites that suggest the temperature of the pseudotachylyte melt was >1000\(^{\circ }\hbox {C}\). Thus, pseudotachylyte veins act as a proxy to understand the genetic process involved in the evolution of the shear zone and its tectonic settings.     

Numerical simulation of physical and dynamical characteristics associated with the severe thunderstorm on April 5, 2015 at Kushtia and Jhenaidah

The paper deals with the study of the physical and dynamical characteristics of a severe thunderstorm, which had occurred on April 5, 2015, at about 2100 UTC in the southwestern Bangladesh with location around 23.3–23.7N and 89.0–89.4E within the upazilas (sub-districts) of Kumarkhali and Shailkupa under the districts of Kushtia and Jhenaidah, respectively. The thunderstorm was associated with numerous hails of large size. More than 5000 birds which used to live in the bird sanctuary at Shailkupa and 22,011 birds in Chhaglapara Bird Sanctuary of Kumarkhali died as they were hit by the hails. Large hails also damaged crops, houses and forests over the thunderstorm hit areas. The evolution of the thunderstorm is studied by the WRF model, which is initialized using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Final reanalysis data of 0000 UTC of April 5, 2015. The simulated results provide a basis to study the physical and dynamical characteristics of the thunderstorm, which are generally not identified by the meteorological observations which are too sparse. The model has captured a micro-low over Kumarkhali and its neighborhood, which favored the occurrence of the severe thunderstorm. The model simulated rainfall is about 26 mm near the place of occurrence, which matches well with the area where the reflectivity of hydrometeor is maximum. The convective available potential energy is found to be 1600 J kg^?1 at 1730 UTC near the place of occurrence of the thunderstorm; this indicates high atmospheric instability over the thunderstorm location for the formation of the thunderstorm. The vertical velocity, convergence, cloud water mixing ratio and the ice water mixing ratio and their vertical extensions are found to be satisfactory and responsible for the occurrence of large hails associated with the thunderstorm.     

Vertical profile of aerosol single scattering albedo over west coast of India during W_ICARB

Altitude profile of aerosol Single Scattering Albedo (SSA), derived from simultaneous in-situ airborne measurements of the coefficients of aerosol absorption and scattering off the west coast of India over the Arabian Sea (AS), during January 2009 is presented. While both the absorption and scattering coefficients decreased with altitude, their vertical structure differed significantly. Consequently, the derived SSA, with a surface value of 0.94, decreased with altitude, illustrating increasing relative dominance of aerosol absorption at higher altitudes. Altitude profile of SSA, when examined in conjunction with that of hemispheric backscatter fraction, revealed that the continental influence on the aerosol properties was higher at higher altitude, rather than the effect of marine environment. During an east–west transect across the peninsular India at an altitude of ～2500 m (free troposphere), it was found that the aerosol scattering coefficients remained nearly the same over both east and west coasts.     

Strong ground-motion relations for Mexican interplate earthquakes

We derive strong ground-motion relations for horizontal components of pseudo-acceleration response spectra from Mexican interplate earthquakes at rock sites (NEHRP B class) in the forearc region. The functional form is obtained from the analytical solution of a circular finite-source model. For the regression analysis we use a recently proposed multivariate Bayesian technique. The resulting model has similar accuracy as those models derived from regional and worldwide subduction-zone databases. However, there are significant differences in the estimations computed from our model and other models. First, our results reveal that attenuation in Mexico tends to be stronger than that of worldwide relations, especially for large events. Second, our model predicts ground motions for large earthquakes at close distances to the source that are considerably larger than the estimations of global models. Lack of data in this range makes it difficult to identify the most appropriate model for this scenario. Nevertheless, according to the available data at the city of Acapulco, our model seems to estimate seismic hazard more adequately than the other models. These new relations may be useful in computing seismic hazard for the Mexican forearc region, where no similar equations had been yet proposed.     

Improvement of Monsoon Depressions Forecast with Assimilation of Indian DWR Data Using WRF-3DVAR Analysis System

An attempt is made to evaluate the impact of Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) radial velocity and reflectivity in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-3D variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system for prediction of Bay of Bengal (BoB) monsoon depressions (MDs). Few numerical experiments are carried out to examine the individual impact of the DWR radial velocity and the reflectivity as well as collectively along with Global Telecommunication System (GTS) observations over the Indian monsoon region. The averaged 12 and 24 h forecast errors for wind, temperature and moisture at different pressure levels are analyzed. This evidently explains that the assimilation of radial velocity and reflectivity collectively enhanced the performance of the WRF-3DVAR system over the Indian region. After identifying the optimal combination of DWR data, this study has also investigated the impact of assimilation of Indian DWR radial velocity and reflectivity data on simulation of the four different summer MDs that occurred over BoB. For this study, three numerical experiments (control no assimilation, with GTS and GTS along with DWR) are carried out to evaluate the impact of DWR data on simulation of MDs. The results of the study indicate that the assimilation of DWR data has a positive impact on the prediction of the location, propagation and development of rain bands associated with the MDs. The simulated meteorological parameters and tracks of the MDs are reasonably improved after assimilation of DWR observations as compared to the other experiments. The root mean square errors (RMSE) of wind fields at different pressure levels, equitable skill score and frequency bias are significantly improved in the assimilation experiments mainly in DWR assimilation experiment for all MD cases. The mean Vector Displacement Errors (VDEs) are significantly decreased due to the assimilation of DWR observations as compared to the CNTL and 3DV_GTS experiments. The study clearly suggests that the performance of the model simulation for the intense convective system which influences the large scale monsoonal flow is significantly improved after assimilation of the Indian DWR data from even one coastal locale within the MDs track.