GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.     

Generalised observations of wave characteristics on near‐horizontal shore platforms: Synthesis of six case studies from the North Island,New Zealand

Most field studies of wave processes on shore platforms in front of eroding cliffs focus on a single site, revealing aspects of wave dynamics at that location. Here, we analyse data from six platforms around northeastern New Zealand and describe the fundamental control of shore platform width, gradient and elevation on wave processes, including greater attenuation of short‐period waves at lower tidal stages and increases in longer period wave energy towards the cliff toe. These data suggest that empirical formulae developed from coral‐reef environments provide better predictions of wave height on platforms than formulae currently used in shore platform models.     

Modeling Arctic Ocean heat transport and warming episodes in the 20th century caused by the intruding Atlantic Water

This study investigates the Arctic Ocean warming episodes in the 20th century using both a high-resolution coupled global climate model and historical observations. The model, with no flux adjustment, reproduces well the Atlantic Water core temperature （AWCT） in the Arctic Ocean and shows that four largest decadalscale warming episodes occurred in the 1930s, 70s, 80s, and 90s, in agreement with the hydrographic observational data. The difference is that there was no pre-warming prior to the 1930s episode, while there were two pre-warming episodes in the 1970s and 80s prior to the 1990s, leading the 1990s into the largest and prolonged warming in the 20th century. Over the last century, the simulated heat transport via Fram Strait and the Barents Sea was estimated to be, on average, 31.32 TW and 14.82 TW, respectively, while the Bering Strait also provides 15.94 TW heat into the west- ern Arctic Ocean. Heat transport into the Arctic Ocean by the Atlantic Water via Fram Strait and the Barents Sea correlates significantly with AWCT （ C = 0.75 ） at 0- lag. The modeled North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） index has a significant correlation with the heat transport （ C = 0.37 ）. The observed AWCT has a significant correlation with both the modeled AWCT （ C =0.49） and the heat transport （ C =0.41 ）. However, the modeled NAO index does not significantly correlate with either the observed AWCT （ C = 0.03 ） or modeled AWCT （ C = 0.16 ） at a zero-lag, indicating that the Arctic climate system is far more complex than expected.     

Characteristics of canopy interception loss in Moso bamboo forests of Japan

In recent years, Moso bamboo (Phyllostachys pubescens) forests have rapidly expanded in Japan by replacing surrounding coniferous and/or broadleaved forests. To evaluate the change in water yield from forested areas because of this replacement, it is necessary to examine evapotranspiration for Moso bamboo forests. However, canopy interception loss, one of the major components of evapotranspiration in forested areas, has been observed in only two Moso bamboo forests in Japan with relatively high stem density (~7000 stems/ha). There are, in fact, many Moso bamboo forests with much lower stem density. Thus, we made precipitation (Pr), throughfall (Tf) and stemflow (Sf) observations for 1 year in a Moso bamboo forest with stem density of 3611 stems/ha and quantified canopy interception loss (Ic). Pr and Ic for the experimental period were 1636 and 166 mm, respectively, and Ic/Pr was 10%. The value was approximately the same as values for the other two Moso bamboo forests and lower than values for coniferous and broadleaved forests. On the other hand, Tf/Pr and Sf/Pr for our forest (86% and 4%, respectively) were approximately 10% of Pr larger and smaller than values for the other two Moso bamboo forests. These results suggest that the difference in stem density greatly affects precipitation partitioning (i.e. Tf/Pr and Sf/Pr) but does not greatly change Ic/Pr. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structure and development of the Sagami trough and the Boso triple junction

The Sagami trough is located at the particular plate margin where the Izu forearc is subducted underneath the Honshu forearc. At its southeastern end, the world's only known TTT-type triple junction (Boso triple junction) has developed. Several different kinds of basins occur in different segments along the Sagami trough and at the triple junction. The bathymetric, geologic, and geophysical data obtained during the Kaiko Project and from additional studies are summarized together with our onland studies. We suggest that the right-lateral oblique plate motion formed an eduction margin in the Sagami basin, while a normal subduction margin and an oblique subduction margin have been formed in the Middle Sagami trough basin. These tectonic phenomena resulted from the long-lasting compressional covergence between the Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate since the early or middle Miocene. The North basin on the northeasternmost margin of the Philippine Sea plate near the Boso triple junction has developed as a stretched basin due to the westward motion of the Philippine Sea plate with respect to the Eurasian plate.     

Structural and fabric analyses of basal slip zone of the Jin’nosuke-dani landslide, northern central Japan: its application to the slip mechanism of decollement

We describe in detail the deformation structures and textures of a large-scale landslide body that developed in the Betto-dani Valley in northern central Japan. We studied the shape-preferred orientation of clasts and clay flakes and the development of internal shear planes within the slip zone of the landslide. The slip has an average rate of 5–10 cm/year under the overburden pressure of approximately 1.6 MPa; these values are similar to those of the proto-decollement zone of the Nankai accretionary prism in SW Japan. The anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility of samples obtained from the slip zone reveals that the long axes of clay flakes define an imbricate structure. The slip was due to a long-term periodical creep, which occurs during the thaw seasons with an average slip rate of 0.16–0.32 μm/min. During the creep, the long axes of grains including clay flakes in the slip zone are developed from parallel to perpendicular to the slip direction. The observed textures provide a clue to elucidate the deformation textures and process in the decollement zone of the Nankai prism.     

Research on the seismotectonics of the Jan－uary 17，1995 Hanshin M7．2 earthquake

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Alkaline leaching characteristics of biogenic opal in Eocene sediments from the central Arctic Ocean: a case study in the ACEX cores

Accurate knowledge of the extent of biogenic opal preservation in marine sediment cores is important for paleoceanographic reconstructions. The alkaline leaching method is widely employed for %biogenic opal analysis due to its ease and speed. In this study, a revised method for measuring %biogenic opal in sediment from arctic coring expedition samples was suggested. The studied middle Eocene sediments from the central Arctic Ocean presented a problem in insufficiently leaching biogenic opal with a Na₂CO₃ solution. Based on XRD analysis, it was suggested that such an alkaline resistance results from slight diagenesis of biogenic opal. In order to solve this problem, an alkaline leaching method utilizing a 2 M NaOH solution was suggested for the accurate measurement of %biogenic opal in the Eocene sediments from the central Arctic. Furthermore, dissolution rates from lithogenic matter by NaOH solution were measured in order to correct the %biogenic opal values.     

Estimation of snow ablation under a dust layer covering a wide range of albedo

Ablation processes of snow under a thin dust cover are complicated compared with those under a thick cover, mainly owing to the effects of aggregation (redistribution) of dust particles on the conditions of surface melting. Aggregation of dust particles causes the snow surface to brighten after the initial dust configuration, thus affecting the relationship between initial dust concentration and surface albedo. In order to estimate snow ablation rate under a thin dust cover, we used a composite energy balance model in which the surface albedo is taken as a measured input variable. The estimated results of snow ablation agreed reasonably well with the observation, considering the measurement errors inherited in the snow depressions. Comparison of the two cases, that is, one considering the aggregation of dust particles (observation: albedo variable) and the other without aggregation (assumption: albedo constant), showed that the ablation rates were noticeably lower on the former case. This suggests that the aggregation of dust particles induces a reduction of snow ablation. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.