On the long-term context of the 1997–2009 ‘Big Dry’ in South-Eastern Australia: insights from a 206-year multi-proxy rainfall reconstruction

This study presents the first multi-proxy reconstruction of rainfall variability from the mid-latitude region of south-eastern Australia (SEA). A skilful rainfall reconstruction for the 1783–1988 period was possible using twelve annually-resolved palaeoclimate records from the Australasian region. An innovative Monte Carlo calibration and verification technique is introduced to provide the robust uncertainty estimates needed for reliable climate reconstructions. Our ensemble median reconstruction captures 33% of inter-annual and 72% of decadal variations in instrumental SEA rainfall observations. We investigate the stability of regional SEA rainfall with large-scale circulation associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) over the past 206 years. We find evidence for a robust relationship with high SEA rainfall, ENSO and the IPO over the 1840–1988 period. These relationships break down in the late 18th–early 19th century, coinciding with a known period of equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooling during one of the most severe periods of the Little Ice Age. In comparison to a markedly wetter late 18th/early 19th century containing 75% of sustained wet years, 70% of all reconstructed sustained dry years in SEA occur during the 20th century. In the context of the rainfall estimates introduced here, there is a 97.1% probability that the decadal rainfall anomaly recorded during the 1998–2008 ‘Big Dry’ is the worst experienced since the first European settlement of Australia.     

Assessing the potential impact of climate change on the UK’s electricity network

We investigate how weather affects the UK’s electricity network, by examining past data of weather-related faults on the transmission and distribution networks. By formalising the current relationship between weather-related faults and weather, we use climate projections from a regional climate model (RCM) to quantitatively assess how the frequency of these faults may change in the future. This study found that the incidences of both lightning and solar heat faults are projected to increase in the future. There is evidence that the conditions that cause flooding faults may increase in the future, but a reduction cannot be ruled out. Due to the uncertainty associated with future wind projections, there is no clear signal associated with the future frequency of wind and gale faults, however snow, sleet and blizzard faults are projected to decrease due to a reduction in the number of snow days.     

Stable carbon isotopes (δ<Superscript>13</Superscript>C) of total organic carbon and long-chain <Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis>-alkanes as proxies for climate and environmental change in a sediment core from Lake Petén-Itzá, Guatemala

Sediment core PI-6 from Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala, possesses an ~85-ka record of climate and environmental change from lowland Central America. Variations in sediment lithology suggest large and abrupt changes in precipitation during the last glacial and deglacial periods, and into the early Holocene. We measured stable carbon isotope ratios of total organic carbon and long-chain n-alkanes from the core, the latter representing a largely allochthonous (terrestrial) source of organic matter, to reveal past shifts in the relative proportion of C₃–C₄ terrestrial biomass. We sought to test whether stable carbon isotope results were consistent with other paleoclimate proxies measured in the PI-6 core, and if extraction and isotope analysis of n-alkanes is warranted. The largest δ¹³C variations are associated with Heinrich Events. Carbon isotope values in sediments deposited during the last glacial maximum indicate moderate precipitation with little fluctuation. The deglacial was a period of pronounced climate variability, e.g. a relatively warm and moist Bølling–Allerød, but a cool and dry Younger Dryas. Arid periods of the deglacial were inferred from samples with high δ¹³C values in total organic carbon, which reflect times of greater proportions of C₄ plants. These inferences are supported by stable isotope measurements on ostracod shells and relative abundance of grass pollen from the same depths in core PI-6. Similar trends in carbon stable isotopes measured on bulk organic carbon and n-alkanes suggest that carbon isotope measures on bulk organic carbon in sediments from this lake are sufficient to infer past climate-driven shifts in local vegetation.     

Developing a model of climate change behavior among adolescents

Research on adolescent climate change perceptions has uncovered key insights about how knowledge, concern, and hope might relate to behavior and the potential for educational interventions to influence these factors. However, few of these studies have employed treatment/control designs that might address causality and none have addressed how these factors might interact to influence behavior. We developed a model of behavior change where a climate education treatment impacted knowledge, knowledge impacted hope and concern, and hope and concern together impacted behavior. We empirically tested the utility of this model and the causal relationships within it using a pre/post, treatment/control evaluation of climate education among adolescents in North Carolina, USA (n?=?1041). We found support for a causal relationship between the treatment and gains in knowledge, but not between treatment and behavior. However, we did find support for a path model in which climate change knowledge positively relates to increased climate change concern and hope, and increases in concern and hope predict changes in pro-environmental behavior. Low SES was related to smaller gains in knowledge, concern, and behavior. Our results contribute to a theoretical understanding of climate change behaviors among adolescents and suggest that climate education aiming to change behavior should focus on building hope and concern.     

Synergies and trade-offs between adaptation,mitigation and development

To succeed in meeting carbon emissions reduction targets to limit projected climate change impacts, it is imperative that improved synergies be developed between mitigation and adaptation strategies. This is especially important in development policy among remote indigenous communities, where demands for development have often not been accompanied by commensurate efforts to respond to future climate change impacts. Here we explore how mitigation and adaptation pathways can be combined to transform rural indigenous communities toward sustainability. Case studies from communities in Alaska and Nepal are introduced to illustrate current and potential synergies and trade-offs and how these might be harnessed to maximize beneficial outcomes. The adaptation pathways approach and a framework for transformational adaptation are proposed to unpack these issues and develop understanding of how positive transformational change can be supported.     

Paleoenvironmental and Human Behavioral Implications of the Boegoeberg 1 Late Pleistocene Hyena Den, Northern Cape Province, South Africa

Boegoeberg 1 (BOG1) is located on the Atlantic coast of South Africa, 850 km north of Cape Town. The site is a shallow rock shelter in the side of a sand-choked gully that was emptied by diamond miners. Abundant coprolites, chewed bones, and partially digested bones implicate hyenas as the bone accumulators. The location of the site, quantity of bones, and composition of the fauna imply it was a brown hyena nursery den. The abundance of Cape fur seal bones shows that the hyenas had ready access to the coast. Radiocarbon dates place the site before 37,000 ¹⁴C yr ago, while the large average size of the black-backed jackals and the presence of extralimital ungulates imply cool, moist conditions, probably during the early part of the last glaciation (isotope stage 4 or stage 3 before 37,000 ¹⁴C yr ago) or perhaps during one of the cooler phases (isotope substages 5d or 5b) within the last interglaciation. Comparisons of the BOG1 seal bones to those from regional Middle Stone Age (MSA) and Later Stone Age (LSA) archeological sites suggest (1) that hyena and human seal accumulations can be distinguished by a tendency for vertebrae to be much more common in a hyena accumulation and (2) that hyena and LSA accumulations can be distinguished by a tendency for hyena-accumulated seals to represent a much wider range of individual seal ages. Differences in the way hyenas and people dismember, transport, and consume seal carcasses probably explain the contrast in skeletal part representation, while differences in season of occupation explain the contrast in seal age representation. Like modern brown hyenas, the BOG1 hyenas probably occupied the coast year-round, while the LSA people focused their coastal visits on the August–October interval when nine-to-eleven-month-old seals were abundant. The MSA sample from Klasies River Mouth Cave 1 resembles BOG1 in seal age composition, suggesting that unlike LSA people, MSA people obtained seals more or less throughout the year.     

Groupers on the Edge: Shelf Edge Spawning Habitat in and Around Marine Reserves of the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

The northeastern Gulf of Mexico contains some of the most diverse and productive marine habitat in the United States. Much of this habitat, located on the shelf edge in depths of 50 to 120 m, supports spawning for many economically important species, including groupers. Here, we couple acoustic surveys with georeferenced videography to describe the primary spatial and geologic features of spawning aggregation sites for four economically important species: gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), scamp (M. phenax), red grouper (Epinephelus morio), and red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus), with notes on fish distribution and abundance and spawning activities. We provide information on movement patterns of reef fish determined using acoustic telemetry. Finally, we discuss the possible coupling of geomorphology with hydrographic features to influence the overall productivity of the region and the importance of spatial fishery management in sustaining that productivity.     

Distribution of local Cs anomalies on the seafloor near the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant

An estimated 3.5 ± 0.7 × 10¹⁵ Bq of ¹³⁷Cs is thought to have been discharged into the ocean following the melt down at Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (F1NPP). While efforts have been made to monitor seafloor radiation levels, the sampling techniques used cannot capture the continuous distribution of radionuclides. In this work, we apply in situ measurement techniques using a towed gamma ray spectrometer to map the continuous distribution of ¹³⁷Cs on the seafloor within 20 km of the F1NPP. The results reveal the existence of local ¹³⁷Cs anomalies, with levels of ¹³⁷Cs an order of magnitude higher than the surrounding seafloors. The sizes of the anomalies mapped in this work range from a few meters to a few hundreds of meters in length, and it is demonstrated that the distribution of these anomalies is strongly influenced by meter scale features of the terrain.     

Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500�C2100: 600?years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands

In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005?C2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al. 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs. The land-use harmonization strategy estimates fractional land-use patterns and underlying land-use transitions annually for the time period 1500?C2100 at 0.5°?×?0.5° resolution. Inputs include new gridded historical maps of crop and pasture data from HYDE 3.1 for 1500?C2005, updated estimates of historical national wood harvest and of shifting cultivation, and future information on crop, pasture, and wood harvest from the IAM implementations of the RCPs for the period 2005?C2100. The computational method integrates these multiple data sources, while minimizing differences at the transition between the historical reconstruction ending conditions and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve the future changes depicted by the IAMs at the grid cell level. This study for the first time harmonizes land-use history data together with future scenario information from multiple IAMs into a single consistent, spatially gridded, set of land-use change scenarios for studies of human impacts on the past, present, and future Earth system.     

Recovery from the impact of light reduction on the seagrass Amphibolis griffithii, insights for dredging management

A large-scale, manipulative experiment was conducted to examine the extent and rate of recovery of meadows of the temperate Australian seagrass, Amphibolis griffithii to different light-reduction scenarios typical of dredging operations, and to identify potential indicators of recovery from light reduction stress. Shade cloth was used to mimic different intensities, durations and start times of light reduction, and then was removed to assess the recovery. The meadow could recover from 3 months of light stress (5-18% ambient) following 10 months re-exposure to ambient light, even when up to 72% of leaf biomass was lost, much faster recovery rates than has previously been observed for large seagrasses. However, when the meadow had been shaded for 6-9 months and more than 82% of leaf biomass was lost, no recovery was detected up to 23 months after the light stress had ceased, consistent with other studies. Five potential indicators of recovery were recommended.