Do French macroseismic intensity observations agree with expectations from the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013?

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are the basis of modern seismic design codes. To test fully a seismic hazard curve at the return periods of interest for engineering would require many thousands of years’ worth of ground-motion recordings. Because strong-motion networks are often only a few decades old (e.g. in mainland France the first accelerometric network dates from the mid-1990s), data from such sensors can be used to test hazard estimates only at very short return periods. In this article, several hundreds of years of macroseismic intensity observations for mainland France are interpolated using a robust kriging-with-a-trend technique to establish the earthquake history of every French mainland municipality. At 24 selected cities representative of the French seismic context, the number of exceedances of intensities IV, V and VI is determined over time windows considered complete. After converting these intensities to peak ground accelerations using the global conversion equation of Caprio et al. (Ground motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs): a global relationship and evaluation of regional dependency, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105:1476–1490, 2015), these exceedances are compared with those predicted by the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013 (ESHM13). In half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances for low intensities (IV and V) is within the range of predictions of ESHM13. In the other half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances is higher than the predictions of ESHM13. For intensity VI, the match is closer, but the comparison is less meaningful due to a scarcity of data. According to this study, the ESHM13 underestimates hazard in roughly half of France, even when taking into account the uncertainty in the conversion from intensity to acceleration. However, these results are valid only for the acceleration range tested in this study (0.01 to 0.09 g).     

Horizontal pendulum development and the legacy of Ernst von Rebeur-Paschwitz

Horizontal pendulum development was paramount in the birth of modern instrumental seismology and solid-earth tide study. This paper presents a revised history starting in the first part of the nineteenth century and culminating with Rebeur-Paschwitz’s masterpiece in its latter part. The first stage began with the invention of the horizontal pendulum by Lorenz Hengler in 1832. He was followed by several, mostly independent, inventors during the three decades from the 1850s to the 1870s, in particular Friedrich Z?llner in 1869–1872 who popularized this instrument. With the exception of an instrument designed by Alexander Gerard in 1851, all these preliminary pendulums were suspended with two wires. Slightly different forms of horizontal pendulums were invented in Japan by James Ewing and Thomas Gray in the early 1880s, based on bracket or conical suspensions. The merit of demonstrating the outstanding potential of high-sensitivity horizontal pendulums completely relies on the work of Ernst von Rebeur-Paschwitz between 1886 and 1895. He successively developed three models of pendulums, in collaboration with three different manufacturers: the Fecker pendulum in 1886, the Repsold pendulum in 1888, from which six copies were produced, and finally, the Stückrath two-component model in 1894, built in three copies. Based on the scrutiny of a large number of previously unexploited archives, the detailed chronology of Rebeur-Paschwitz’s achievements is presented. Archive, and in situ explorations allowed us to discover five out of the six original copies of the first Rebeur-Paschwitz’s Repsold pendulum previously unknown or thought to be lost.     

Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida

Sea level rise (SLR) projections along the coast of Florida present an enormous challenge for management and conservation over the long term. Decision makers need to recognize and adopt strategies to adapt to the potentially detrimental effects of SLR. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a rigorous framework for the management of natural resources. The aim of SDM is to identify decisions that are optimal with respect to management objectives and knowledge of the system. Most applications of SDM have assumed that the managed systems are governed by stationary processes. However, in the context of SLR it may be necessary to acknowledge that the processes underlying managed systems may be non-stationary, such that systems will be continuously changing. Therefore, SLR brings some unique considerations to the application of decision theory for natural resource management. In particular, SLR is expected to affect each of the components of SDM. For instance, management objectives may have to be reconsidered more frequently than under more stable conditions. The set of potential actions may also have to be adapted over time as conditions change. Models have to account for the non-stationarity of the modeled system processes. Each of the important sources of uncertainty in decision processes is expected to be exacerbated by SLR. We illustrate our ideas about adaptation of natural resource management to SLR by modeling a non-stationary system using a numerical example. We provide additional examples of an SDM approach for managing species that may be affected by SLR, with a focus on the endangered Florida manatee.     

North-Atlantic SST amplified recent wintertime European land temperature extremes and trends

Europe has been warming over the past 30?years. In particular all seasonal temperature records have been broken since 2003, which altered socio-economic and environmental systems. Since we expect this trend in both mean and extreme temperatures to continue along the twenty first century under enhanced radiative forcing, it is crucial to understand the underlying mechanisms of such climate variations to help in considering adaptation or mitigation strategies to reduce the impacts of a warmer climate. From a statistical analysis we show that the inter-annual variability of European seasonal temperatures can be reconstructed from North-Atlantic atmospheric circulation only, but not their recent trends and extreme seasons. Adding North-Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) as a predictor helps improving the reconstruction, especially in autumn and winter. Sensitivity experiments with the MM5 regional model over 2003?C2007 suggest that the anomalous SST enhance European land temperatures through the upper-air advection of heat and water vapor, interacting with radiative fluxes over the continent. This mechanism is pronounced in autumn and winter, where estimates of SST influence as obtained from MM5 are in agreement with those obtained from statistical regressions. We find a lesser SST influence in spring and summer, where local surface and radiative feedbacks are the main amplifiers of recent extremes.     

Land–sea contrast,soil-atmosphere and cloud-temperature interactions: interplays and roles in future summer European climate change

Europe and in particular its southern part are expected to undergo serious climate changes during summer in response to anthropogenic forcing, with large surface warming and decrease in precipitation. Yet, serious uncertainties remain, especially over central and western Europe. Several mechanisms have been suggested to be important in that context but their relative importance and possible interplays are still not well understood. In this paper, the role of soil-atmosphere interactions, cloud-temperature interactions and land–sea warming contrast in summer European climate change and how they interact are analyzed. Models for which evapotranspiration is strongly limited by soil moisture in the present climate are found to tend to simulate larger future decrease in evapotranspiration. Models characterized by stronger present-day anti-correlation between cloud cover and temperature over land tend to simulate larger future decrease in cloud cover. Large model-to-model differences regarding land–sea warming contrast and its impacts are also found. Warming over land is expected to be larger than warming over sea, leading to a decrease in continental relative humidity and precipitation because of the discrepancy between the change in atmospheric moisture capacity over land and the change in specific humidity. Yet, it is not true for all the models over our domain of interest. Models in which evapotranspiration is not limited by soil moisture and with a weak present-day anti-correlation between cloud cover and temperature tend to simulate smaller land surface warming. In these models, change in specific humidity over land is therefore able to match the continental increase in moisture capacity, which leads to virtually no change in continental relative humidity and smaller precipitation change. Because of the physical links that exist between the response to anthropogenic forcing of important impact-related climate variables and the way some mechanisms are simulated in the context of present-day variability, this study suggests some potentially useful metrics to reduce summer European climate change uncertainties.     

How can a few streamflow measurements help to predict daily hydrographs at almost ungauged sites?

Abstract

Available data from nearby gauging stations can provide a great source of hydrometric information that is potentially transferable to an ungauged site. Furthermore, streamflow measurements may even be available for the ungauged site. This paper explores the potential of four distance-based regionalization methods to simulate daily hydrographs at almost ungauged pollution-control sites. Two methods use only the hydrological information provided by neighbouring catchments; the other two are new regionalization methods parameterized with a limited number of streamflow data available at the site of interest. Based on a network of 149 streamgauges and 21 pollution-control sites located in the Upper Rhine-Meuse area, the comparative assessment demonstrates the benefit of making available point streamflow measurements at the location of interest for improving quantitative streamflow prediction. The advantage is moderate for the prediction of flow types (stormflow, recession flow, baseflow) and pulse shape (duration of rising limb and falling limb).

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Viglione     

UAV navigation system using line-based sensor pose estimation

Abstract

This work presents a mapping and tracking system based on images to enable a small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) to accurately navigate in indoor and GPS-denied outdoor environments. A method is proposed to estimate the UAV’s pose (i.e., the 3D position and orientation of the camera sensor) in real-time using only the on-board RGB camera as the UAV travels through a known 3D environment (i.e., a 3D CAD model). Linear features are extracted and automatically matched between images collected by the UAV’s onboard RGB camera and the 3D object model. The matched lines from the 3D model serve as ground control to estimate the camera pose in real-time via line-based space resection. The results demonstrate that the proposed model-based pose estimation algorithm provides sub-meter positioning accuracies in both indoor and outdoor environments. It is also that shown the proposed method can provide sparse updates to correct the drift from complementary simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM)-derived pose estimates.     

The radical geopolitics of US foreign policy: the 2003 Iraq War

This article presents an approach termed “radical geopolitics” that addresses two of critical geopolitics’ blind spots, namely, its lack of attention to the causes (the “why”) of policy and its neglect of political economy. In particular, it examines the respective roles of the geopolitical and geoeconomic factors that drive policy. The argument draws on David Harvey’s “logics of power,” modified and reformulated into a “geoeconomic logic” and a “geopolitical logic” through which postwar American foreign policy may be interpreted. The former logic arises out of capitalism’s tendency to expand geographically and the latter out of politicians’ need to maintain credibility internationally as well as from electoral pressures at home. A discussion of the Iraq War illustrates the approach and illuminates issues overlooked by critical geopolitics analyses, in particular: Why did the US invade Iraq in 2003? And what was the role of oil, if any, in motivating the invasion? It is argued that Iraq was invaded to control its oil (but much less to use it for US consumption, and still much less to generate profits from it), and to maintain American credibility. Radical geopolitics should not be seen in opposition to critical geopolitics, but rather as seeking to supplement its analyses through discussion of issues which have received less attention.     

From outcrop and petrographic studies to basin-scale fluid flow modelling: The use of the Albanian natural laboratory for carbonate reservoir characterisation

The Albanian fold-and-thrust belt and the Peri-Adriatic Depression are well documented by means of seismic reflection profiles, GPS reference points, potential data, wells and outcrops. The continuous Oligocene to Plio-Quaternary sedimentary records help to constrain both the burial history of Mesozoic carbonate reservoirs, the timing of their deformation, and the coupled fluid flow and diagenetic scenarios.Since the mid-90s, the Albanian foothills were used as a natural laboratory to develop a new integrated methodology and work flow for the study of sub-thrust reservoir evolution, and to validate on real case studies the use of basin modelling tools as well as the application of new analytical methods for the study petroleum systems in tectonically complex areas.The integration of the interactions between petrographic and microtectonic studies, kinematic, thermal and fluid flow basin modelling, is described in detail. The fracturing of the reservoir intervals has a pre-folding origin in the Albanides and relates to the regional flexuring in the foreland. The first recorded cement has a meteoric origin, implying downward migration and the development of an earlier forebulge in the Ionian Basin. This fluid, which precipitates at a maximum depth of 1.5 km, is highly enriched in strontium, attesting for important fluid–rock interaction with the Triassic evaporites, located in diapirs. From this stage, the horizontal tectonic compression increases and the majority of the fluid migrated under high pressure, characterised by brecciated and crack-seal vein. The tectonic burial increased due to the overthrusting, that is pointed out by the increase of the precipitation temperature of the cements. Afterwards, up- or downward migration of SO₄²⁻, Ba²⁺ and Mg²⁺-rich fluids, which migrated probably along the décollement level, allows a precipitation in thermal disequilibrium. This period corresponds to the onset of the thrusting in the Ionian Zone. The last stage characterised the uplift of the Berati belt, developing a selective karstification due likely to the circulation of meteoric fluid.The main results of the fluid flow modelling show that the Upper Cretaceous–Paleocene carbonate reservoirs in the Ionian zone have been charged from the Tortonian onward, and that meteoric fluid migration should have intensely biodegraded the hydrocarbon in place. Concerning the migration paths, it has been demonstrated that the thrusts act principally as flow barriers in Albania, mainly due the occurrence of evaporites (non-permeable), except in the foreland, where they do not occur.     

Interest in geological and palaeontological curiosities by southern African non-western societies: A review and perspectives for future study

Compared with other parts of the world, the study of geomythology in southern Africa, and the associated documentation of non-western awareness of palaeontological and geological phenomena, is in an early phase. We focus on examples of rocks and fossils as items of special interest and curiosity, and we search for evidence of an indigenous palaeontology and geology. We review twenty-one sites or cases for which published accounts exist, and we describe a newly identified trilobite manuport site. In combination these sites provide various levels of evidence of palaeontological and geological awareness exhibited by non-western cultures in southern Africa, and how these cultures incorporated this knowledge into their understanding of their world. We anticipate that in time a diverse heritage of such ‘natural knowledge’ may become evident in southern Africa, aided in part by recognition of the possibility that rock art images may be associated with awareness of body fossils and trace fossils. We suggest ways in which further analysis may bolster this contention.