A New Method of Significance Testing for Correlation-Coefficient Fields and Its Application

Correlation-coefficient fields are widely used in short-term climate prediction research. The most frequently used significance test method for the correlation-coefficient field was proposed by Livezey, in which the number of significantcorrelation lattice(station) points on the correlation coherence map is used as the statistic. However, the method is based on two assumptions:(1) the spatial distribution of the lattice(station) points is uniform;and(2) there is no correlation between the physical quantities in the correlation-coefficient field. However, in reality, the above two assumptions are not valid.Therefore, we designed a more reasonable method for significance testing of the correlation-coefficient field. Specifically, a new statistic, the significant-correlation area, is introduced to eliminate the inhomogeneity of the grid(station)-point distribution, and an empirical Monte Carlo method is employed to eliminate the spatial correlation of the matrix.Subsequently, the new significance test was used for simultaneous correlation-coefficient fields between intensities of the atmospheric activity center in the Northern Hemisphere and temperature/precipitation in China. The results show that the new method is more reasonable than the Livezey method.     

Riverine large wood and recreation safety: A framework to discretize and contextualize hazard

The importance of large wood (LW) to riverine functions is well established scientifically and increasingly recognized by river managers in many countries. However, public perceptions largely associate LW with elevated danger and/or need for intervention. Such perspectives are amplified amongst recreational river users (defined here as any individuals that recreate by floating on the water surface of a river) who interact more directly with rivers than the general public and commonly view wood in life-or-death terms. Given that human life occupies a highest-order charge for river managers, they are left in a difficult position when safety appears to conflict with environmental services. LW deficits are perpetuated partly because wood removal, often in the name of safety, is far easier than placing wood in rivers. Further, river restoration practitioners are frequently burdened with expectations and liability unparalleled in built environments. A fundamentally different mindset is necessary to achieve desired ecologic outcomes when working with rivers. Based on two decades of experience as boaters, LW practitioners, and emergency responders, we (1) discuss LW hazard and risk from recreational and management viewpoints, (2) discretize objective and measurable physical properties of LW hazards, and (3) propose a decision framework that implicitly addresses risk by considering LW hazards relative to river use and ambient hazards. The approach is structured to increase objectivity in LW hazard mitigation and diminish asymmetric biases that favor LW removal. Our intent is to build understanding and rational flexibility among risk-averse management, regulatory, and funding entities to facilitate implementation of scientific understanding without undue risk to river users. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Iron and Pyritization in Wetland Soils of the Florida Coastal Everglades

We explored environmental factors influencing soil pyrite formation within different wetland regions of Everglades National Park. Within the Shark River Slough (SRS) region, soils had higher organic matter (62.65 ± 1.88 %) and lower bulk density (0.19 ± 0.01 g cm^?3) than soils within Taylor Slough (TS; 14.35 ± 0.82 % and 0.45 ± 0.01 g cm^?3, respectively), Panhandle (Ph; 15.82 ± 1.37 % and 0.34 ± 0.009 g cm^?3, respectively), and Florida Bay (FB; 5.63 ± 0.19 % and 0.73 ± 0.02 g cm^?3, respectively) regions. Total reactive sulfide and extractable iron (Fe) generally were greatest in soils from the SRS region, and the degree of pyritization (DOP) was higher in soils from both SRS (0.62 ± 0.02) and FB (0.52 ± 0.03) regions relative to TS and Ph regions (0.30 ± 0.02 and 0.31 ± 0.02, respectively). Each region, however, had different potential limits to pyrite formation, with SRS being Fe and sulfide limited and FB being Fe and organic matter limited. Due to the calcium-rich soils of TS and Ph regions, DOP was relatively suppressed. Annual water flow volume was positively correlated with soil DOP. Soil DOP also varied in relation to distance from water management features and soil percent organic matter. We demonstrate the potential use of soil DOP as a proxy for soil oxidation state, thereby facilitating comparisons of wetland soils under different flooding regimes, e.g., spatially or between wet years versus dry years. Despite its low total abundance, Fe plays an important role in sulfur dynamics and other biogeochemical cycles that characterize wetland soils of the Florida coastal Everglades.     

Between-Population Differences in Multi-stressor Tolerance During Embryo Development in the American Horseshoe Crab, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Limulus polyphemus</Emphasis>

The American horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, is found along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts in genetically isolated populations. Eggs are laid in shoreline beaches that expose developing embryos to combinations of environmental stressors. Whether populations of L. polyphemus differ in multi-stressor tolerance had never been tested. We assessed the multi-stressor tolerance of L. polyphemus embryos from a population in Delaware Bay (DE) and determined whether these differed from the multi-stressor tolerance of embryos from a more southerly Florida Gulf Coast (FGC) population. We monitored the field sediment temperatures and determined multi-stressor tolerance of DE embryos, then compared these to published data for FGC embryos. For multi-stressor tolerance, we assessed development success of embryos in 2-week exposures to 36 full-factorial combinations of temperature (20, 25, 30, 35 °C), salinity (5, 15, and 34 ppt), and ambient O₂ (5, 13, and 21% O₂), followed by 2 weeks in recovery conditions. Sediment temperatures in the DE site ranged from 9.5 to 46 °C, with extended periods exceeding 35 °C. Development success was similar between the DE and FGC populations in 14 of 26 multi-stressor combinations. The DE embryos were generally more successful in conditions that included high temperature or moderate hyposalinity, whereas the FGC embryos were generally more successful in conditions that included extreme hyposalinity. This suggests that although multi-stressor tolerances are generally similar between the two populations, specific differences exist that correlate more with differences in nest microenvironment than latitude.     

High-Frequency Rayleigh-Wave Method

High-frequency (≥2 Hz) Rayleigh-wave data acquired with a multichannei recording sys-tem have been utilized to determine shear (S)-wave velocities in near-surface geophysics since the early 1980s. This overview article discusses the main research results of high-frequency surface-wave tech-niques achieved by research groups at the Kansas Geological Survey and China University of Geosciences in the last 15 years. The multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW) method is a nou-iuvasive acoustic approach to estimate near-surface S-wave velocity. The differences between MASW results and direct borehole measurements are approximately 15% or less and random. Studies show that simultaneous inversion with higher modes and the fundamental mode can increase model resolution and an investigation depth. The other important seismic property, quality factor (Q), can also be estimated with the MASW method by inverting attenuation coefficients of Rayleigh waves. An inverted model (S-wave velocity or Q) obtained using a damped least-squares method can be assessed by an optimal damping vector in a vicinity of the inverted model determined by an objective function, which is the trace of a weighted sum of model-resolution and model-covariance matrices. Current developments include modeling high-frequency Rayleigh-waves in near-surface media, which builds a foundation for shallow seismic or Rayleigh-wave inversion in the time-offset domain; imaging dispersive energy with high resolution in the frequency-velocity domain and possibly with data in an arbitrary acquisition geometry, which opens a door for 3D surface-wave techniques; and successfully separating surface-wave modes, which provides a valuable tool to perform S-wave velocity profiling with high-horizontal resolution.     

Error sources and data limitations for the prediction of surface gravity: a case study using benchmarks

Gravity-based heights require gravity values at levelled benchmarks (BMs), which sometimes have to be predicted from surrounding observations. We use the Earth Gravitational Model 2008 (EGM2008) and the Australian National Gravity Database (ANGD) as examples of model and terrestrial observed data respectively to predict gravity at Australian National Levelling Network (ANLN) BMs. The aim is to quantify errors that may propagate into the predicted BM gravity values and then into gravimetric height corrections (HCs). Our results indicate that an approximate ±1 arc-min horizontal position error of the BMs causes maximum errors in EGM2008 BM gravity of ~22 mGal (~55 mm in the HC at ~2200 m elevation) and ~18 mGal for ANGD BM gravity because the values are not computed at the true location of the BM. We use RTM (residual terrain modelling) techniques to show that ~50% of EGM2008 BM gravity error in a moderately mountainous region can be accounted for by signal omission. Non-representative sampling of ANGD gravity in this region may cause errors of up to 50 mGals (~120 mm for the Helmert orthometric correction at ~2200 m elevation). For modelled gravity at BMs to be viable, levelling networks need horizontal BM positions accurate to a few metres, while RTM techniques can be used to reduce signal omission error. Unrepresentative gravity sampling in mountains can be remedied by denser and more representative re-surveys, and/or gravity can be forward modelled into regions of sparser gravity.     

Regional Temperature Forecast for the Next Day in Hong Kong

For a century or so, the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) has been providing temperature forecast for the whole of Hong Kong with the HKO Headquarters as the reference location. In recent decades, due to spreading of population from the main urban center to satellite towns, there is an increasing demand for regional temperature forecasts. To support such provision, the HKO has developed a regression model to provide objective guidance to forecasters in formulating forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures for the next day at various locations in Hong Kong. In this paper, the regression model is presented, together with the assessment of its performance. Based on the verification of one year of forecasts, it is found that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of maximum (minimum) temperature forecasts are from about 1.3 to 2.1 (1.1 to 1.4) degrees, respectively. The regression model is shown to have generally out-performed the operational regional spectral model then operated by HKO. Regional temperature forecast methods of other meteorological or research centers are also surveyed. Equipped with the regression model, the HKO has launched an online regional temperature forecast service for the next day in Hong Kong since March 2008.     

The high‐frequency limit of usable response spectral ordinates from filtered analogue and digital strong‐motion accelerograms

The range of response frequencies for which spectral ordinates obtained from accelerograms may be considered reliable is limited by several factors, primary among them being the effects of filters that are routinely applied to remove noise from the records. Considerable attention has been focused on the low‐frequency limit of the usable spectral ordinates because of various engineering applications requiring long‐period spectral accelerations or displacements but only recently have rational approaches to selecting the high‐frequency limit been proposed. Since there are applications for which the high‐frequency spectral ordinates are important, the approaches to this issue presented in the recent studies are reviewed and their application to the ground‐motion database from Europe and the Middle East is explored. On the basis of the results of these analyses, it is concluded that a large proportion of this dataset can be used to provide reliable estimates of response spectral ordinates at much shorter periods than may have previously been considered feasible. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.