Temporal and spatial variations of global ionospheric total electron content under various solar conditions

By utilizing the numerical technique of principal component analysis (PCA), this work analyses temporal and spatial variations of the ionosphere under various solar conditions during the period 1999–2013. Applying the PCA technique to the time series of the global ionospheric total electron content (TEC) maps provides an efficient method for analyzing the main ionospheric variability on a global scale that is able to decompose periodic variations (e.g., annual and semiannual oscillations) while retaining the asymmetry in the temporal and spatial domains (e.g., seasonal and equator anomalies). The TEC series of different local times are processed separately at two time scales: (1) the whole 15 years of the period of study and (2) the individual years. In contrast with previous studies, the analysis of the dataset of the 15 years shows that dawn (e.g., LT4–6) and late morning (LT10–12) are the more remarkable characteristic times for ionospheric variability. This study also reveals a cyclic trend of the variability with respect to local times. The first two modes, which contain 80–90% of the total variance, represent spatial distributions and temporal variations with respect to the different stages of the solar cycle and local times. Annual and semiannual variations are demodulated from the first two modes, and the results show that these variations evidently have distinct trends for daytime and nighttime. An exception is that, under active solar conditions, extremely strong solar irradiance during the daytime has a residual effect on the variability of the nighttime.     

Airborne remote sensing of spatiotemporal change (1955–2004) in indigenous and exotic forest cover in the Taita Hills,Kenya

We studied changes in area and species composition of six indigenous forest fragments in the Taita Hills, Kenya using 1955 and 1995 aerial photography with 2004 airborne digital camera mosaics. The study area is part of Eastern Arc Mountains, a global biodiversity hot spot that boasts an outstanding diversity of flora and fauna and a high level of endemism. While a total of 260 ha (50%) of indigenous tropical cloud forest was lost to agriculture and bushland between 1955 and 2004, large-scale planting of exotic pines, eucalyptus, grevillea, black wattle and cypress on barren land during the same period resulted in a balanced total forest area. In the Taita Hills, like in other Afrotropical forests, indigenous forest loss may adversely affect ecosystem services.     

Dynamic modeling of forest conversion: Simulation of past and future scenarios of rural activities expansion in the fringes of the Xingu National Park,Brazilian Amazon

The present work is committed to simulate the expansion of agricultural and cattle raising activities within a watershed located in the fringes of the Xingu National Park, Brazilian Amazon. A spatially explicit dynamic model of land cover and land use change was used to provide both past and future scenarios of forest conversion into such rural activities, aiming to identify the role of driving forces of change in the study area. The employed modeling platform – Dinamica EGO – consists in a cellular automata environment that embodies neighborhood-based transition algorithms and spatial feedback approaches in a stochastic multi-step simulation framework. Biophysical variables and legal restrictions drove this simulation model, and statistical validation tests were then conducted for the generated past simulations (from 2000 to 2005), by means of multiple resolution fitting methods. Based on optimal calibration of past simulations, future scenarios were conceived, so as to figure out trends and spatial patterns of forest conversion in the study area for the year 2015. In all simulated scenarios, pasturelands remained nearly stable throughout the analyzed period, while a large expansion in croplands took place. The most optimistic scenario indicates that more than 50% of the natural forest will be replaced by either cropland or pastureland by 2015. This modeling experiment revealed the suitability of the adopted model to simulate processes of forest conversion. It also indicates its possible further applicability in generating simulations of deforestation for areas with expanding rural activities in the Amazon and in tropical forests worldwide.     

Supersonic plasma jet interaction with gases and plasmas

The interaction of supersonic plasma jets with dense gases and plasmas has been studied experimentally and theoretically. Collimated plasma jets were generated from the laser pulse interaction with solid targets. The jet propagates with the velocity exceeding 400 km/s and transports the energy of a few kJ/cm². The interaction of such a jet with an Ar and He gases at various pressures has been studied by using optical and X-ray diagnostics. Qualitative estimates and numerical simulations with a radiative hydrodynamic code explain a sequence of physical processes during the interaction. Experimental and numerical results show that, by changing ambient material, the working surface structure changes from an adiabatic outflow to a radiative cooling jet. The applications of this phenomenon to astrophysical conditions and the inertial confinement fusion are discussed.     

Integrating climate and local factors for geomorphological distribution models

Earth surface processes (ESPs) drive landscape development and ecosystem processes in high‐latitude regions by creating spatially heterogeneous abiotic and biotic conditions. Ongoing global change may potentially alter the activity of ESPs through feedback on ground conditions, vegetation and the carbon cycle. Consequently, accurate modeling of ESPs is important for improving understanding of the current and future distributions of these processes. The aims of this study were to: (1) integrate climate and multiple local predictors to develop realistic ensemble models for the four key ESPs occurring at high latitudes (slope processes, cryoturbation, nivation and palsa mires) based on the outputs of 10 modern statistical techniques; (2) test whether models of ESPs are improved by incorporating topography, soil and vegetation predictors to climate‐only models; (3) examine the relative importance of these variables in a multivariate setting. Overall, the models showed high transferability with the mean area under curve of a receiver operating characteristics (AUC) ranging from 0.83 to 0.96 and true skill statistics (TSS) from 0.52 to 0.87 for the most complex models. Even though the analyses highlighted the importance of the climate variables as the most influential predictors, three out of four models benefitted from the inclusion of local predictors. We conclude that disregarding local topography and soil conditions in spatial models of ESPs may cause a significant source of error in geomorphological distribution models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Two‐dimensional and three‐dimensional computational models in hydrodynamic and morphodynamic reconstructions of a river bend: sensitivity and functionality

This study assesses hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model sensitivity and functionality in a curved channel. The sensitivity of a depth‐averaged model to user‐defined parameters (grain size, roughness, transverse bed slope effect, transport relations and secondary flow) is tested. According to the sensitivity analysis, grain size, transverse bed slope effect and sediment transport relations are critical to simulated meander bend morphodynamics. The parametrization of grain size has the most remarkable effect: field‐based grain size parametrization is necessary in a successful morphodynamic reconstruction of a meander bend. The roughness parametrization method affects the distribution of flow velocities and therefore also morphodynamics. The combined effect of various parameters needs further research. Two‐dimensional (2D) and three‐dimensional (3D) reconstructions of a natural meander bend during a flood event are assessed against field measurements of acoustic Doppler current profiler and multi‐temporal mobile laser scanning data. The depth‐averaged velocities are simulated satisfactorily (differences from acoustic Doppler current profiler velocities 5–14%) in both 2D and 3D simulations, but the advantage of the 3D hydrodynamic model is unquestionable because of its ability to model vertical and near‐bed flows. The measured and modelled near‐bed flow, however, differed notably from each other's, the reason of which was left open for future research. It was challenging to model flow direction beyond the apex. The 3D flow features, which also affected the distribution of the bed shear stress, seem not to have much effect on the predicted morphodynamics: the 2D and 3D morphodynamic reconstructions over the point bar resembled each other closely. Although common features between the modelled and measured morphological changes were also found, some specific changes that occurred were not evident in the simulation results. Our results show that short‐term, sub‐bend scale morphodynamic processes of a natural meander bend are challenging to model, which implies that they are affected by factors that have been neglected in the simulations. The modelling of short‐term morphodynamics in natural curved channel is a challenge that requires further study. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Arctic Mackenzie Delta channel planform evolution during 1983–2013 utilising Landsat data and hydrological time series

Arctic deltas, such as the Mackenzie Delta, are expected to face major climate change and increased human influence in the near future. Deltas are characterised by highly dynamic fluvial processes, and changing climate will cause considerable evolution of the riverine environment. The changes are difficult to predict with existing knowledge and data. This study quantified channel planform change of the Mackenzie Delta (1983–2013), analysing its temporal and spatial patterns. We addressed the main obstacle of research on large remote areas, the lack of data, by developing a unique work flow that utilised Landsat satellite imagery, hydrological time series, remote sensing‐based change analysis, and automatic vectorisation of channels. Our results indicate that the Mackenzie Delta experienced constant evolution but at a highly varying rate over the 30 years. The study demonstrates that the magnitude and duration of flood peaks and the presence of spring ice breakup floods determine the rate of Arctic delta planform change. Changing winter conditions and spring flood magnitudes may therefore affect the stability of Arctic deltas. However, no clear trends towards decreased recurrence or magnitude of spring floods or increased instability of the delta plain have yet been observed in the Mackenzie Delta. The delta plain was most dynamic at the beginning and at the end of the examined period, corresponding to intense flooding, whereas the rates of change were subtle during the low‐flood period 1994–2007. The largest changes have occurred along the wide Middle Channel and in the outermost delta. Relative to their size, however, smaller meandering channels have been highly dynamic. Hotspots of change in the delta plain are located in anastomosing and braiding channel segments and, at the local scale, in point bars and cut‐banks along meandering channels. Our study describes how Landsat satellite data can be utilised for advancing fluvial geomorphological research in remote areas. However, cloudiness in the delta restricts production of dense time series with simultaneous coverage of the whole area and requires manual preprocessing.     

River ice cover influence on sediment transportation at present and under projected hydroclimatic conditions

A large number of rivers are frozen annually, and the river ice cover has an influence on the geomorphological processes. These processes in cohesive sediment rivers are not fully understood. Therefore, this paper demonstrates the impact of river ice cover on sediment transport, i.e. turbidity, suspended sediment loads and erosion potential, compared with a river with ice‐free flow conditions. The present sediment transportation conditions during the annual cycle are analysed, and the implications of climate change on wintertime geomorphological processes are estimated. A one‐dimensional hydrodynamic model has been applied to the Kokemäenjoki River in Southwest Finland. The shear stress forces directed to the river bed are simulated with present and projected hydroclimatic conditions. The results of shear stress simulations indicate that a thermally formed smooth ice cover diminishes river bed erosion, compared with an ice‐free river with similar discharges. Based on long‐term field data, the river ice cover reduces turbidity statistically significantly. Furthermore, suspended sediment concentrations measured in ice‐free and ice‐covered river water reveal a diminishing effect of ice cover on riverine sediment load. The hydrodynamic simulations suggest that the influence of rippled ice cover on shear stress is varying. Climate change is projected to increase the winter discharges by 27–77% on average by 2070–2099. Thus, the increasing winter discharges and possible diminishing ice cover periods both increase the erosion potential of the river bed. Hence, the wintertime sediment load of the river is expected to become larger in the future. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.