Acceptance criteria for urban dispersion model evaluation

The authors suggested acceptance criteria for rural dispersion models’ performance measures in this journal in 2004. The current paper suggests modified values of acceptance criteria for urban applications and tests them with tracer data from four urban field experiments. For the arc-maximum concentrations, the fractional bias should have a magnitude <0.67 (i.e., the relative mean bias is less than a factor of 2); the normalized mean-square error should be <6 (i.e., the random scatter is less than about 2.4 times the mean); and the fraction of predictions that are within a factor of two of the observations (FAC2) should be >0.3. For all data paired in space, for which a threshold concentration must always be defined, the normalized absolute difference should be <0.50, when the threshold is three times the instrument’s limit of quantification (LOQ). An overall criterion is then applied that the total set of acceptance criteria should be satisfied in at least half of the field experiments. These acceptance criteria are applied to evaluations of the US Department of Defense’s Joint Effects Model (JEM) with tracer data from US urban field experiments in Salt Lake City (U2000), Oklahoma City (JU2003), and Manhattan (MSG05 and MID05). JEM includes the SCIPUFF dispersion model with the urban canopy option and the urban dispersion model (UDM) option. In each set of evaluations, three or four likely options are tested for meteorological inputs (e.g., a local building top wind speed, the closest National Weather Service airport observations, or outputs from numerical weather prediction models). It is found that, due to large natural variability in the urban data, there is not a large difference between the performance measures for the two model options and the three or four meteorological input options. The more detailed UDM and the state-of-the-art numerical weather models do provide a slight improvement over the other options. The proposed urban dispersion model acceptance criteria are satisfied at over half of the field experiments.     

The influence of Madden–Julian Oscillation in the genesis of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclones

Cyclonic storms having maximum winds of 34 knots and above that had genesis in north Indian Ocean have been studied with respect to the eastward passage of Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). In the three decades (1979–2008), there were a total of 118 cyclones reported in which 96 formed in the region chosen (0–15^oN, 60^oE–100^oE) for the study. Although the percentage of MJO days inducing cyclogenesis is small, it is found that tropical cyclone genesis preferentially occurred during the convective phase of MJO. This accounted for 44 cyclones of the total 54 cyclones (i.e., 81.5%) formed under MJO amplitude 1 and above. The study has shown that, when the enhanced convection of MJO is over the maritime continent and the adjoining eastern Indian Ocean, it creates the highest favorable environment for cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal. During this phase, westerlies at 850 hPa are strong in the equatorial region south of Bay of Bengal creating strong cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere along with the low vertical wind shear.     

Variations of slab dip and overriding plate tectonics during subduction: Insights from analogue modelling

We present small-scale laboratory models of oceanic subduction in which plates motion is imposed by lateral boundary conditions. The oceanic plate moves trenchward at constant speed and subducts below a fixed overriding plate. In this configuration, the long-term process of subduction is not steady-state. Slab interaction with the upper mantle-lower mantle boundary results in periods of slab flattening during which the dip of the slab diminishes, followed by periods of slab steepening. The overriding plate tectonic regime is influenced by the dynamics of subduction, slab anchoring favouring trench perpendicular shortening. When the slab is anchored, slab flattening further favours shortening, while slab steepening favours extension or smaller shortening rates. Non-steady-state long-term subduction may explain part of the variability of slab geometries evidenced by statistical analyses of present-day subduction zones. Experiments suggest that, despite boundary conditions applied on the converging plates do not change, tectonics pulses within the overriding plate may be caused by this non-steady-state behaviour.     

On the diurnal ranges of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the north Indian Ocean

This paper describes the variability in the diurnal range of SST in the north Indian Ocean using in situ measurements and tests the suitability of simple regression models in estimating the diurnal range. SST measurements obtained from 1556 drifting and 25 moored buoys were used to determine the diurnal range of SSTs. The magnitude of diurnal range of SST was highest in spring and lowest in summer monsoon. Except in spring, nearly 75–80% of the observations reported diurnal range below 0.5°C. The distributions of the magnitudes of diurnal warming across the three basins of north Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Equatorial Indian Ocean) were similar except for the differences between the Arabian Sea and the other two basins during November–February (winter monsoon) and May. The magnitude of diurnal warming that depended on the location of temperature sensor below the water level varied with seasons. In spring, the magnitude of diurnal warming diminished drastically with the increase in the depth of temperature sensor. The diurnal range estimated using the drifting buoy data was higher than the diurnal range estimated using moored buoys fitted with temperature sensors at greater depths. A simple regression model based on the peak solar radiation and average wind speed was good enough to estimate the diurnal range of SST at ∼1.0 m in the north Indian Ocean during most of the seasons except under low wind-high solar radiation conditions that occur mostly during spring. The additional information on the rate of precipitation is found to be redundant for the estimation of the magnitude of diurnal warming at those depths.     

Geology of the Elephanta Island fault zone,western Indian rifted margin,and its significance for understanding the Panvel flexure

The Panvel flexure is a 150-km long tectonic structure, comprising prominently seaward-dipping Deccan flood basalts, on the western Indian rifted margin. Given the active tectonic faulting beneath the Panvel flexure zone inferred from microseismicity, better structural understanding of the region is needed. The geology of Elephanta Island in the Mumbai harbour, famous for the ca. mid-6th century A.D. Hindu rock-cut caves in Deccan basalt (a UNESCO World Heritage site) is poorly known. We describe a previously unreported but well-exposed fault zone on Elephanta Island, consisting of two large faults dipping steeply east–southeast and producing easterly downthrows. Well-developed slickensides and structural measurements indicate oblique slip on both faults. The Elephanta Island fault zone may be the northern extension of the Alibag–Uran fault zone previously described. This and two other known regional faults (Nhava–Sheva and Belpada faults) indicate a progressively eastward step-faulted structure of the Panvel flexure, with the important result that the individual movements were not simply downdip but also oblique-slip and locally even rotational (as at Uran). An interesting problem is the normal faulting, block tectonics and rifting of this region of the crust for which seismological data indicate a normal thickness (up to 41.3 km). A model of asymmetric rifting by simple shear may explain this observation and the consistently landward dips of the rifted margin faults.     

Variability of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala (India) of the period 1870–2014 and its relation to sea surface temperature

Monsoon onset over Kerala (India) which occurs every year is a major climatic phenomenon that involves large scale changes in wind, rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST). Over the last 150 years, the date of monsoon onset over Kerala (DMOK) has varied widely, the earliest being 11 May, 1918 and the most delayed being 18 June, 1972. DMOK has a long term (1870–2014) mean of 01 June and standard deviation of 7–8 days. We have studied the inter-annual and decadal time scale variability of DMOK and their relation with SST. We found that SST anomalies of large spatial scale similar to those in El Nino/La Nina are associated with the inter-annual variability in DMOK. Indian Ocean between latitudes \(5^{\circ }\hbox {S}\) and \(20^{\circ }\hbox {N}\) has two episodes of active convection associated with monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK), one around DMOK and the other about six weeks earlier (called pre-monsoon rain peak or bogus monsoon onset) and in between a two week period of suppressed convection occurs over north Indian Ocean. A prominent decadal time scale variability was found in DMOK having large and statistically significant linear correlation with the SST gradient across the equator over Indian and Pacific oceans, the large correlation persisting for several months prior to the MOK. However, no linear trend was seen in DMOK during the long period from 1870 to 2014.     

Origins of cryptic variation in the Ediacaran–Fortunian rhyolitic ignimbrites of the Saldanha Bay Volcanic Complex,Western Cape,South Africa

The Saldanha eruption centre, on the West Coast of South Africa, consists of 542 Ma, intracaldera, S-type, rhyolite ignimbrites divided into the basal Saldanha Ignimbrite and the partly overlying Jacob’s Bay Ignimbrite. Depleted-mantle Nd model ages suggest magma sources younger than the Early Mesoproterozoic, and located within the Neoproterozoic Malmesbury Group and Swartland complex metasedimentary and metavolcanic rocks that form the regional basement. The Sr isotope systematics suggest that the dominant source rocks were metavolcaniclastic rocks and metagreywackes, and that the magmas formed from separate batches extracted from the same heterogeneous source. No apparent magma mixing trends relate the Saldanha to the Jacob’s Bay Ignimbrites, or either of these to the magmas that formed the Plankiesbaai or Tsaarsbank Ignimbrites in the neighbouring Postberg eruption centre. The magmas were extracted from their source rocks carrying small but significant proportions of peritectic and restitic accessory minerals. Variations in the content of this entrained crystal cargo were responsible for most of the chemical variations in the magmas. Although we cannot construct a cogent crystal fractionation model to relate these groups of magmas, at least some crystal fractionation occurred, as an overlay on the primary signal due to peritectic assemblage entrainment (PAE). Thus, the causes of the cryptic chemical variation among the ignimbrite magmas of the Saldanha centre are variable, but dominated by the compositions of the parent melts and PAE. The preservation of clear, source-inherited chemical signatures, in individual samples, calls into question the common interpretation of silicic calderas as having been formed in large magma reservoirs, with magma compositions shaped by magma mingling, mixing, and fractional crystallization. The Saldanha rocks suggest a more intimate connection between source and erupted magma, and perhaps indicate that silicic magmas are too viscous to be significantly modified by magma-chamber processes.     

Re–Os Dating of Bitumen from Paleo–Oil Reservoir in the Qinglong Antimony Deposit, Guizhou Province, China and Its Geological Significance

Abundant organic inclusions are present in the Qinglong antimony deposit. However, the source rocks of these organic matters have not been reliably identified. Recently, a paleo–oil reservoir was found in the Qinglong antimony deposit. In view of similar components of gaseous hydrocarbon, we propose that the organic matters observed in inclusions in Qinglong antimony deposit would come from this paleo–oil reservoir. We used the Re–Os dating method to determine the age of the bitumen from this paleo–oil reservoir, and obtained an isochron age of 254.3±2.8 Ma. The age indicates that the oilgeneration from source rock occurred in the early Late Permian, earlier than the Sb mineralization age(~148±8.5 Ma) in the Qinglong antimony deposit area. After oil generation from Devonian source rock, first and secondary migration, the crude oil have probably entered into the fractures and pores of volcanic rocks and limestone and formed a paleo–oil reservoir in the western wing of Dachang anticline. As burial process deepened, the crude oil has turned into natural gas, migrates into the core of Dachang anticline and formed a paleo–gas reservoir. The hydrocarbons(including CH_4) in the reservoirs can serve as reducing agent to provide the sulfur required for Sb mineralization through thermal chemical reduction of sulfates. Therefore, the formation of oil–gas in the area is a prerequisite for the Sb mineralization in the Qinglong antimony deposit.     

Uncertainties of the 50-year wave height estimation using generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions in the Indian Shelf seas

Natural Hazards - Information about waves with specific return period in a region is essential for the safe design of marine facilities. In this study, significant wave height for 50-year return...     

Topic: Perception or reality – waste, landfill and the environment

When Einstein was asked to define the environment he gave the excellent answer 'everything that isn't me'. This article is about Einstein's environment, and its protection.