Seismic Moment Tensor Resolution on a Local Scale: Simulated Rockburst and Mine-induced Seismic Events in the Kopanang Gold Mine, South Africa

Seismic records contain information about the effect of the source as well as the effect of wave propagation through the rock mass. The effect of wave propagation is usually not well known as only simplified models of geological structures are available. Therefore, the information about the source retrieved by inverting seismograms may include errors due to incomplete knowledge of the rock mass along the propagation path, which in turn cause a distortion in the calculated moment tensor (MT). The distortion of the MT on a local scale was observed by inverting records of a simulated rockburst conducted at the Kopanang gold mine in South Africa. A dominant isotropic component of the explosive characteristics was found from the inversion. The deviatoric components retrieved from the blast are spurious. A test of their stability indicated that they are not significant, assuming an uncertainty above 5% for velocities and 10% for attenuation within the homogeneous model available for the mine. Thus, the retrieval of the MT from records of local networks in mines using a homogeneous model of the rock mass seems to be feasible. However, the homogeneous model of the rock mass can only be applied to close stations, within a few kilometers of the source. The seismic records from distant stations were too complex to be modelled by a homogeneous rock mass. Records of six mine-induced seismic events recorded at the Kopanang gold mine were also inverted. A vertical linear dipole along the pressure (P) axis was found for three of the events, suggesting a pillar burst. The mechanism of two events contains an isotropic implosion together with a nearly vertical dip-slip, and seems to indicate a combination of a cavity collapse with a down dip-slip along a nearly vertical fault. One event corresponds to a dipole along the tensional (T) axis. However, it is vertical, thus its association with tensile faulting of the hangingwall is uncertain.     

Seasonal fluctuations in the deep central equatorial Atlantic Ocean: a data–model comparison

Low-frequency current fluctuations in the deep central equatorial Atlantic are analyzed using current meter measurements recorded from November 1992 to November 1994. Current meters were located at about 14°W of longitude and 1° of latitude on both sides of the equator between 1,700 m depth and the ocean bottom. At all sampling depths, the velocity fluctuations are dominantly zonal and symmetrical with respect to the equator. At 1,700 and 2,000 m, the flow is dominated by annual period fluctuations, at 3,000 m, the velocity field amplitude presents a minimum, and at 3,750 and 3,950 m, the flow is modulated by annual and semiannual period variability. The annual signal exhibits an apparent upward phase propagation. When considering the phase and the amplitude of the seasonal fluctuations, the data compare well with the outputs of a realistic numerical simulation of the Atlantic Ocean. Together with a previous analysis of the model simulations, this supports the idea that the observed annual fluctuations are due to wind-forced vertically propagating Kelvin and Rossby waves. Data and model do not provide deciding evidences of the presence of semiannual equatorial waves deeper than 3,500 m depth in the central equatorial Atlantic Ocean.     

Explicit formula for the geoid-quasigeoid separation

The explicit formula for the geoid-to-quasigeoid correction is derived in this paper. On comparing the geoidal height and height anomaly, this correction is found to be a function of the mean value of gravity disturbance along the plumbline within the topography. To evaluate the mean gravity disturbance, the gravity field of the Earth is decomposed into components generated by masses within the geoid, topography and atmosphere. Newton’s integration is then used for the computation of topography-and atmosphere-generated components of the mean gravity, while the combined solution for the downward continuation of gravity anomalies and Stokes’ boundary-value problem is utilized in computing the component of mean gravity disturbance generated by mass irregularities within the geoid. On application of this explicit formulism a theoretical accuracy of a few millimetres can be achieved in evaluation of the geoid-to-quasigeoid correction. However, the real accuracy could be lower due to deficiencies within the numerical methods and to errors within the input data (digital terrain and density models and gravity observations).     

Validation of a homogeneous 41-year (1961–2001) winter precipitation hindcasted dataset over the Iberian Peninsula: assessment of the regional improvement of global reanalysis

A 44-year (1958–2001) homogeneous, Mediterranean, high-resolution atmospheric database was generated through dynamical downscaling within the HIPOCAS (Hindcast of Dynamic Processes of the Ocean and Coastal Areas of Europe) Project framework. This work attempts to provide a validation of the monthly winter HIPOCAS precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands and to evaluate the potential improvement of these new hindcasted data versus global reanalysis datasets. The validation was performed through the comparative analysis with a precipitation database derived from 4,617 in situ stations located over Iberia and the Balearics. The statistical comparative analysis between the observed and the HIPOCAS fields highlights their very good agreement not only in terms of spatial and time distribution, but also in terms of total amount of precipitation. A principal component analysis is carried out, showing that the patterns derived from the HIPOCAS data largely capture the main characteristics of the observed field. Moreover, it is worth to note that the HIPOCAS patterns reproduce accurately the observed regional characteristics linked to the main orographic features of the study domain. The existence of high correlations between the hindcasted and observed principal component time series gives a measure of the model performance ability. An additional comparative study of the HIPOCAS winter precipitation with global reanalysis data (NCEP and ERA) is performed. This study reveals the important regional improvement in the characterization of the observed precipitation introduced by the HIPOCAS hindcast relative to the above global reanalyses. Such improvement is effective not only in terms of total amount values, but also in the spatial distribution, the observed field being much more realistically reproduced by HIPOCAS than by the global reanalysis data.     

A new method to detect transitory signatures and local time/space variability structures in the climate system: the scale-dependent correlation analysis

The study of transitory signals and local variability structures in both/either time and space and their role as sources of climatic memory, is an important but often neglected topic in climate research despite its obvious importance and extensive coverage in the literature. Transitory signals arise either from non-linearities, in the climate system, transitory atmosphere–ocean couplings, and other processes in the climate system evolving after a critical threshold is crossed. These temporary interactions that, though intense, may not last long, can be responsible for a large amount of unexplained variability but are normally considered of limited relevance and often, discarded. With most of the current techniques at hand these typology of signatures are difficult to isolate because the low signal-to-noise ratio in midlatitudes, the limited recurrence of the transitory signals during a customary interval of data considered. Also, there is often a serious problem arising from the smoothing of local or transitory processes if statistical techniques are applied, that consider all the length of data available, rather than taking into account the size of the specific variability structure under investigation. Scale-dependent correlation (SDC) analysis is a new statistical method capable of highlighting the presence of transitory processes, these former being understood as temporary significant lag-dependent autocovariance in a single series, or covariance structures between two series. This approach, therefore, complements other approaches such as those resulting from the families of wavelet analysis, singular-spectrum analysis and recurrence plots. A main feature of SDC is its high-performance for short time series, its ability to characterize phase-relationships and thresholds in the bivariate domain. Ultimately, SDC helps tracking short-lagged relationships among processes that locally or temporarily couple and uncouple. The use of SDC is illustrated in the present paper by means of some synthetic time-series examples of increasing complexity, and it is compared with wavelet analysis in order to provide a well-known reference of its capabilities. A comparison between SDC and companion techniques is also addressed and results are exemplified for the specific case of some relevant El Niño-Southern Oscillation teleconnections.     

The relation of meridional pressure gradients to North Atlantic deep water volume transport in an ocean general circulation model

We use a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model to study the relation between meridional pressure and density gradients in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. In several experiments, we artificially modify the meridional density gradients by applying different magnitudes of the Gent–McWilliams isopycnal eddy diffusion coefficients in the Southern Ocean and in the North Atlantic and investigate the response of the simulated Atlantic meridional overturning to such changes. The simulations are carried out close to the limit of no diapycnal mixing, with a very small explicit vertical diffusivity and a tracer advection scheme with very low implicit diffusivities. Our results reveal that changes in eddy diffusivities in the North Atlantic affect the maximum of the Atlantic meridional overturning, but not the outflow of North Atlantic Deep Water into the Southern Ocean. In contrast, changes in eddy diffusivities in the Southern Ocean affect both the South Atlantic outflow of North Atlantic Deep Water and the maximum of the Atlantic meridional overturning. Results from these experiments are used to investigate the relation between meridional pressure gradients and the components of the Atlantic meridional overturning. Pressure gradients and overturning are found to be linearly related. We show that, in our simulations, zonally averaged deep pressure gradients are very weak between 20°S and about 30°N and that between 30°N and 60°N the zonally averaged pressure grows approximately linearly with latitude. This pressure difference balances a westward geostrophic flow at 30–40°N that feeds the southbound deep Atlantic western boundary current. We extend our analysis to a large variety of experiments in which surface freshwater forcing, vertical mixing and winds are modified. In all experiments, the pycnocline depth, assumed to be the relevant vertical scale for the northward volume transport in the Atlantic, is found to be approximately constant, at least within the coarse vertical resolution of the model. The model behaviour hence cannot directly be related to conceptual models in which changes in the pycnocline depth determine the strength of Atlantic meridional flow, and seems conceptually closer to Stommel’s box model. In all our simulations, the Atlantic overturning seems to be mainly driven by Southern Ocean westerlies. However, the actual strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning is not determined solely by the Southern Ocean wind stress but as well by the density/pressure gradients created between the deep water formation regions in the North Atlantic and the inflow/outflow region in the South Atlantic.     

Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models

The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance into the different sources of uncertainty and variation using analyses of variance. The crop and ecosystem models used output from a range of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) projecting climate change over Europe between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 under the IPCC SRES scenarios. The projected impacts on productivity of crops and ecosystems included the direct effects of increased CO₂ concentration on photosynthesis. The variation in simulated results attributed to differences between the climate models were, in all cases, smaller than the variation attributed to either emission scenarios or local conditions. The methods used for applying the climate model outputs played a larger role than the choice of the GCM or RCM. The thermal suitability for grain maize cultivation in Europe was estimated to expand by 30–50% across all SRES emissions scenarios. Strong increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (35–54%) were projected in northern European ecosystems as a result of a longer growing season and higher CO₂ concentrations. Changing water balance dominated the projected responses of southern European ecosystems, with NPP declining or increasing only slightly relative to present-day conditions. Both site and continental scale models showed large increases in yield of rain-fed winter wheat for northern Europe, with smaller increases or even decreases in southern Europe. Site-based, regional and continental scale models showed large spatial variations in the response of nitrate leaching from winter wheat cultivation to projected climate change due to strong interactions with soils and climate. The variation in simulated impacts was smaller between scenarios based on RCMs nested within the same GCM than between scenarios based on different GCMs or between emission scenarios.     

Importance of geochemical transformations in determining submarine groundwater discharge-derived trace metal and nutrient fluxes

Seasonal (Spring and Summer 2002) concentrations of dissolved (<0.22 μm) trace metals (Ag, Al, Co, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb), inorganic nutrients (NO₃, PO₄, Si), and DOC were determined in groundwater samples from 5 wells aligned along a 30 m shore-normal transect in West Neck Bay, Long Island, NY. Results show that significant, systematic changes in groundwater trace metal and nutrient composition occur along the flowpath from land to sea. While conservative mixing between West Neck Bay water and the groundwaters explains the behavior of Si and DOC, non-conservative inputs for Co and Ni were observed (concentration increases of 10- and 2-fold, respectively) and removal of PO₄ and NO₃ (decreases to about half) along the transport pathway. Groundwater-associated chemical fluxes from the aquifer to the embayment calculated for constituents not exhibiting conservative behavior can vary by orders of magnitude depending on sampling location and season (e.g. Co, 3.4 × 10²– 8.2 × 10³ μmol d⁻¹). Using measured values from different wells as being representative of the true groundwater endmember chemical composition also results in calculation of very different fluxes (e.g., Cu, 6.3 × 10³ μmol d⁻¹ (inland, freshwater well) vs. 2.1 × 10⁵ μmol d⁻¹(seaward well, S = 17 ppt)). This study suggests that seasonal variability and chemical changes occurring within the subterranean estuary must be taken into account when determining the groundwater flux of dissolved trace metals and nutrients to the coastal ocean.     

Predation on the rocky shores of Patagonia,Argentina

Rocky intertidal communities of Argentinean Patagonia are exposed to harsh physical conditions caused by dry, strong southern trade winds (mean speed 45 km h^-1, gusts up to 140 km h^-1) that result in intense desiccation of intertidal organisms. Predator distributions in these communities were evaluated from April 2003 to December 2004 at two exposed headlands and six protected bays in Cabo dos Bahias (44°50′S, 65°40′W). Crabs and sea stars dominated the predator assemblage, with occasional scavenger snails and fish also present. During low tide, predators were never found in the open but were always associated with shelter (primarily within mussel beds and coralline algae), suggesting a strong predator dependency on foundation species to buffer them from physical stress. Few predators (mostly crabs) emerged from shelter at high tide. Unlike the larger predators found on Chilean rocky shores, invertebrate predators in this system are diminutive, generally < 2 cm. The lone exception was the newly discovered invasive green crab,Carcinus mamas. Feeding trials, gut content analyses, and visual surveys indicated that native predators feed primarily on small, soft-bodied prey.C. mamas fed on slow-moving and sessile animals, including the super abundant musselPerumytilus purpuratus, with much greater voracity than native predators. Because native intertidal organisms are dependent on mussel beds and coralline algae for shelter from desiccation, successful invasion ofC. mamas may lead to a significant decrease in native diversity by consuming foundation species. This study represents a preliminary survey of predator distributions and feeding habits on the rocky shores of Argentinean Patagonia and provides important baseline data to evaluate trophic linkages and predatory effects on Patagonian rocky shores.     

Utilisation of the image analysis method for the detection of the morphological anisotropy of calcite grains in marble

This paper presents the development and utilisation of an automated image processing algorithm for detection and analysis of grains. Using optical polarising microscopy, a set of colored images are collected from an area on a thin section. A filtering operation, using rotation of a morphological alternating sequence filter (based on a structuring element), is used to remove twinning features within individual grains. Filtering is followed by the watershed segmentation technique to determine grain boundaries. The method is used for the identification of calcite grains in marble and the subsequent analysis of morphological anisotropy.