Effects of nonlinear model response on allocation of streamflow depletion: exemplified by the case of Beaver Creek,USA

Anomalies found when apportioning responsibility for streamflow depletion are examined. The anomalies arise when responsibility is assigned to the two states that contribute to depletion of Beaver Creek in the Republican River Basin in the United States. The apportioning procedure for this basin presumes that the sum of streamflow depletions, computed by comparing simulation model runs with and without groundwater pumping from individual states, approximates the streamflow depletion when both states are pumping. In the case study presented here, this presumed superposition fails dramatically. The stream drying and aquifer-storage depletion, as represented in the simulation model used for allocation, are examined in detail to understand the hydrologic and numerical basis for the severe nonlinear response. Users of apportioning procedures that rely on superposition should be aware of the presence and likely magnitude of nonlinear responses in modeling tools.     

Great South Bay After Sandy: Changes in Circulation and Flushing due to New Inlet

The coastal ocean model FVCOM is applied to quantify the changes in circulation, flushing, and exposure time in Great South Bay, New York, after Superstorm Sandy breached the barrier island in 2012. Since then, the lagoon system is connected to the Atlantic via five instead of four inlets. The model simulations are run on two high-resolution unstructured grids, one for the pre-breach configuration, one including the new inlet, with tidal-only forcing, and summer and winter forcing conditions. Despite its small cross-sectional size, the breach has a relatively large net inflow that leads to a strengthening of the along-bay through-flow in Great South Bay (GSB); the tidally driven volume transport in central GSB quadrupled. The seasonal forcing scenarios show that the southwesterly sea breeze in summer slows down the tidally driven flow, while the forcing conditions in winter are highly variable, and the circulation is dependent on wind direction and offshore sea level. Changes in flushing and exposure time associated with the modified transport patterns are evaluated using a Eulerian passive tracer technique. Results show that the new inlet produced a significant decrease in flushing time (approximately 35% reduction under summer wind conditions and 20% reduction under winter wind conditions). Maps of exposure time reflect the local changes in circulation and flushing.     

The development and analysis of quasi-linear map projections

Map projections are an essential component of coordinate systems used in applications such as surveying, topographic mapping, and engineering, and care needs to be taken to select ones that minimize distortion for each case. This article explores the selection process for near-linear features on the surface of the Earth and derives limits for the extent of a project that can be projected within specified distortion tolerances. It is then demonstrated that a multifaceted set of projections of the Earth may be used to extend this concept to the mapping of features such as highways and railways that are quasi-linear but do not exactly follow a standard geometrical line (a great circle or a small circle) on the surface of the Earth. A continuous, conformal coordinate system may be derived in such situations, extending to indefinite length and applicable over a swath of several kilometers width, but it cannot be extended to cover situations with extensive variations in height. Instead, the Snake Projection is analyzed, and it is shown that this can be used to develop continuous (non-zonal) projected coordinate systems for major engineering projects extending for hundreds of kilometers and having extensive height ranges. Examples are shown of the application to railway projects.     

On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change

Natural Hazards - This study presents a new approach to assess storm surge risk from tropical cyclones under climate change by direct calculation of the local flood levels using a limited number of...     

Jenniferann.com,regional development,and realising the aspirations of mana whenua in Pōkeno

During the 1990s, the township of Pōkeno was held up as an example of a declining rural Aotearoa/New Zealand. By‐passed from the national state highway, it lost its status as a service hub and drastic measures were introduced to revitalise the town, including renaming the town “ Jenniferann.com .” Pōkeno has since undergone an unlikely transformation, with foreign investment and its location within an extended Auckland commuter zone meaning that the township has grown exponentially. This article describes the transformation of Pōkeno and uncovers what has been missing from discussions about Pōkeno's reinvention, namely, the place of mana whenua.     

LA‐ICP‐MS Pb isotope test of meteorite provenance: A terrestrial origin for Lovina

Lovina, classified as an ungrouped ataxite, is controversial and its identity as a meteorite has been questioned. In this work, we use Pb isotopes on targeted troilite nodules in Lovina as a test of its antiquity and provenance. Although precise ages cannot be obtained, LA‐ICP‐MS offers a rapid, straightforward procedure to establish the source of lead, whether ancient (meteoritic) or modern (terrestrial). For nine pristine, unweathered nodules in Lovina, we find a lead isotopic composition of: ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁸Pb = 0.492 ± 0.003 (2σ, MSWD 0.79; 95%) and ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb = 0.852 ± 0.003 (2σ, MSWD 1.09; 95%) with no detectable uranium. All lead compositions of the troilite fall in the range expected for modern environmental and mantle lead and are distinctly different from the primordial Canyon Diablo Troilite (CDT) composition of ancient meteoritic troilite. Although the origin of Lovina remains unknown, we conclude that lead in the Lovina troilite is unsupported by U decay and originated from a terrestrial source.     

Creating an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum from a giant impact

The giant impact hypothesis is the dominant theory explaining the formation of our Moon. However, the inability to produce an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum has cast a shadow on its validity. Computer-generated impacts have been successful in producing virtual systems that possess many of the observed physical properties. However, addressing the isotopic similarities between the Earth and Moon coupled with correct angular momentum has proven to be challenging. Equilibration and evection resonance have been proposed as means of reconciling the models. In the summer of 2013, the Royal Society called a meeting solely to discuss the formation of the Moon. In this meeting, evection resonance and equilibration were both questioned as viable means of removing the deficiencies from giant impact models. The main concerns were that models were multi-staged and too complex. We present here initial impact conditions that produce an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum. This is done in a single-staged simulation. The initial parameters are straightforward and the results evolve solely from the impact. This was accomplished by colliding two roughly half-Earth-sized impactors, rotating in approximately the same plane in a high-energy, off-centered impact, where both impactors spin into the collision.     

Joint modelling of wave spectral parameters for extreme sea states

Characterising the dependence between extremes of wave spectral parameters such as significant wave height (H_S) and spectral peak period (T_P) is important in understanding extreme ocean environments and in the design and assessment of marine structures. For example, it is known that mean values of wave periods tend to increase with increasing storm intensity. Here we seek to characterise joint dependence in a straightforward manner, accessible to the ocean engineering community, using a statistically sound approach.Many methods of multivariate extreme value analyses are based on models which assume implicitly that in some joint tail region each parameter is either independent of or asymptotically dependent on other parameters; yet in reality the dependence structure in general is neither of these. The underpinning assumption of multivariate regular variation restricts these methods to estimation of joint regions in which all parameters are extreme; but regions where only a subset of parameters are extreme can be equally important for design. The conditional approach of Heffernan and Tawn (2004), similar in spirit to that of Haver (1985) but with better theoretical foundation, overcomes these difficulties.We use the conditional approach to characterise the dependence structure of H_S and T_P. The key elements of the procedure are: (1) marginal modelling for all parameters, (2) transformation of data to a common standard Gumbel marginal form, (3) modelling dependence between data for extremes of pairs of parameters using a form of regression, (4) simulation of long return periods to estimate joint extremes. We demonstrate the approach in application to measured and hindcast data from the Northern North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the North West Shelf of Australia. We also illustrate the use of data re-sampling techniques such as bootstrapping to estimate the uncertainty in marginal and dependence models and accommodate this uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation.We discuss the current approach in the context of other approaches to multivariate extreme value estimation popular in the ocean engineering community.     

Guiding ecological principles for marine spatial planning

The declining health of marine ecosystems around the world is evidence that current piecemeal governance is inadequate to successfully support healthy coastal and ocean ecosystems and sustain human uses of the ocean. One proposed solution to this problem is ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP), which is a process that informs the spatial distribution of activities in the ocean so that existing and emerging uses can be maintained, use conflicts reduced, and ecosystem health and services protected and sustained for future generations. Because a key goal of ecosystem-based MSP is to maintain the delivery of ecosystem services that humans want and need, it must be based on ecological principles that articulate the scientifically recognized attributes of healthy, functioning ecosystems. These principles should be incorporated into a decision-making framework with clearly defined targets for these ecological attributes. This paper identifies ecological principles for MSP based on a synthesis of previously suggested and/or operationalized principles, along with recommendations generated by a group of twenty ecologists and marine scientists with diverse backgrounds and perspectives on MSP. The proposed four main ecological principles to guide MSP—maintaining or restoring: native species diversity, habitat diversity and heterogeneity, key species, and connectivity—and two additional guidelines, the need to account for context and uncertainty, must be explicitly taken into account in the planning process. When applied in concert with social, economic, and governance principles, these ecological principles can inform the designation and siting of ocean uses and the management of activities in the ocean to maintain or restore healthy ecosystems, allow delivery of marine ecosystem services, and ensure sustainable economic and social benefits.