Compliance for uncertain inventories via probabilistic/fuzzy comparison of alternatives

A direct comparison among highly uncertain inventories of emissions is inadequate and may lead to paradoxes. This issue is of particular importance in the case of greenhouse gases. This paper reviews the methods for the comparison of uncertain inventories in the context of compliance checking. The problem is treated as a comparison of uncertain alternatives. It provides a categorization and ranking of the inventories which can induce compliance checking conditions. Two groups of techniques to compare uncertain estimates are considered in the paper: probabilistic and fuzzy approaches. They show certain similarities which are revealed and stressed throughout the paper. The group of methods most suitable for the compliance purpose is distinguished. They introduce new conditions for fulfilling compliance, depending on inventory uncertainty. These new conditions considerably change the present approach, where only the reported values of inventories are accounted for.     

Wavelet analysis of turbulence in cirrus clouds

Two flights of the UK Meteorological Offices Hercules aircraft through daytime frontal cirrus around Scotland have been analysed using wavelet analysis on the vertical velocity time-series from the horizontal runs. It is shown that wavelet analysis is a useful tool for analysing the turbulence data in cirrus clouds. It finds the largest scales involved in producing turbulence, as does Fourier analysis, such as the 2-km spectral peaks corresponding to convective activity during flight A283. Wavelet spectra have the added advantage that the position is shown, and so they identify smaller-scale, highly localised processes such as the production of turbulent kinetic energy by the breaking of Kelvin-Helmholtz waves due to the vertical shear in the horizontal wind. These may be lost in Fourier spectra obtained for long time-series, though they contribute something to the average spectral density at the appropriate scale. The main disadvantage of this technique is that only octave frequency bands are resolved.     

The nation-state and the city: introduction to a debate

In recent years, the urban political landscape has become infused with a potent and incendiary mixture of popular-democratic, anti-globalisation, and separatist rhetoric. One central process driving this has been the problematic relations between the nation-state and the city. This Debates and Interventions forum aims to prompt a debate about where the city should be situated intellectually in respect of the nation-state. Four questions are addressed: (1) How do contemporary processes of urban development reflect changing national geopolitical priorities? (2) To what extent are struggles around immigration, citizenship and recognition conducted within cities rather than around the nation-state? (3) To what degree does the city (as e.g. a physical form, social environment or discourse) help to mobilise, propel and/or contest this new urban politics? And (4) Is the concept of a “post-national” global order appropriate for understanding the city and urban politics today?     

The timing of salt structure growth in the Southern Permian Basin (Central Europe) and implications for basin dynamics

In this paper, a literature‐based compilation of the timing and history of salt tectonics in the Southern Permian Basin (Central Europe) is presented. The tectono‐stratigraphic evolution of the Southern Permian Basin is influenced by salt movement and the structural development of various types of salt structures. The compilation presented here was used to characterize the following syndepositional growth stages of the salt structures: (a) “phase of initiation”; (b) phase of fastest growth (“main activity”); and (c) phase of burial’. We have also mapped the spatial pattern of potential mechanisms that triggered the initiation of salt structures over the area studied and summarized them for distinct regions (sub‐basins, platforms, etc.). The data base compiled and the set of maps produced from it provide a detailed overview of the spatial and temporal distribution of salt tectonic activity enabling the correlation of tectonic phases between specific regions of the entire Southern Permian Basin. Accordingly, salt movements were initiated in deeply subsided graben structures and fault zones during the Early and Middle Triassic. In these areas, salt structures reached their phase of main activity already during the Late Triassic or the Jurassic and were mostly buried during the Early Cretaceous. Salt structures in less subsided sub‐basins and platform regions of the Southern Permian Basin mostly started to grow during the Late Triassic. The subsequent phase of main activity of these salt structures took place from the Late Cretaceous to the Cenozoic. The analysis of the trigger mechanisms revealed that most salt structures were initiated by large‐offset normal faults in the sub‐salt basement in the large graben structures and minor normal faulting associated with thin‐skinned extension in the less subsided basin parts.     

Scenarios on future land changes in the West African Sahel

In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: (1) ‘downward spiral’ characterized by rapid climate change, expansion of agriculture and chaotic urban growth; (2) ‘integrated economy’ with integrated land management, food production for local markets and rural–urban exchanges; (3) ‘open doors’ characterized by large-scale out-migrations, land grabbing by foreign companies and development aid and (4) ‘climate change mitigation’ with an increase in biofuel crops, land management for carbon capture and development of off-farm activities. We conclude that the Sahel region is most likely moving away from being a highly climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization.     

Trends of the EU’s territorial and consumption-based emissions from 1990 to 2016

In this paper, a model for the distribution of the Global Carbon Budget between the countries of the world is presented. The model is based on the criteria of equity while also taking into account the different historical responsibilities. The Global Carbon Budget corresponds to the quantity of carbon dioxide emissions that can still be released into the atmosphere while maintaining the increase in the average earth surface temperature below 2 °C, and it is therefore compatible with the long-term objective defined in the Paris Agreement. The results of applying the model are shown both for the 15 emitters that currently top the ranking for world emissions as well as for the other countries, which are grouped together in three main groups: Other African, Other Latin American and Caribbean, and the Rest of the World. Mitigation curves compatible with the carbon budget allocated to the different countries are presented. When comparing each emitter’s historical emissions for the period 1971–2010 with the proposed distribution for the period 2011–2050 obtained using the model, it can be seen that developed countries must face the future with a greatly reduced carbon budget, whereas developing countries can make use of a carbon budget that is higher than their cumulative historical emissions. Finally, there is a discussion about how a model with these characteristics could be useful when implementing the Paris Agreement.     

International and national climate policies for aviation: a review

Aviation constitutes about 2.5% of all energy-related CO₂ emissions and in addition there are non-CO₂ effects. In 2016, the ICAO decided to implement a Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) and in 2017 the EU decided on faster emission reductions in its Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which since 2012 includes the aviation sector. The effects of these policies on the expected development of air travel emissions from 2017 to 2030 have been analyzed. For the sample country Sweden, the analysis shows that when emissions reductions in other sectors are attributed to the aviation sector as a result of the EU ETS and CORSIA, carbon emissions are expected to reduce by ?0.8% per year (however if non-CO₂ emissions are included in the analysis, then emissions will increase). This is much less than what is needed to achieve the 2°C target. Our analysis of potential national aviation policy instruments shows that there are legally feasible options that could mitigate emissions in addition to the EU ETS and CORSIA. Distance-based air passenger taxes are common among EU Member States and through increased ticket prices these taxes can reduce demand for air travel and thus reduce emissions. Tax on jet fuel is an option for domestic aviation and for international aviation if bilateral agreements are concluded. A quota obligation for biofuels is a third option.

Key policy insights

• Existing international climate policies for aviation will not deliver any major emission reductions.

• Policymakers who want to significantly push the aviation sector to contribute to meeting the 2°C target need to work towards putting in place tougher international policy instruments in the long term, and simultaneously implement temporary national policy instruments in the near-term.

• Distance-based air passenger taxes, carbon taxes on jet fuel and quota obligations for biofuels are available national policy options; if they are gradually increased, and harmonized with other countries, they can help to significantly reduce emissions.