The simulation of Arctic clouds and their influence on the winter surface temperature in present-day climate in the CMIP3 multi-model dataset

We investigate the influence of clouds on the surface energy budget and surface temperature in the sea-ice covered parts of the ocean north of the Arctic circle in present-day climate in nine global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3, CMIP3. Monthly mean simulated surface skin temperature, radiative fluxes and cloud parameters are evaluated using retrievals from the extended AVHHR Polar Pathfinder (APP-x) product. We analyzed the annual cycle but the main focus is on the winter, in which large parts of the region experience polar night. We find a smaller across-model spread as well as better agreement with observations during summer than during winter in the simulated climatological annual cycles of total cloudiness and surface skin temperature. The across-model spread in liquid and ice water paths is substantial during the whole year. These results qualitatively agree with earlier studies on the present-day Arctic climate in GCMs. The climatological ensemble model mean annual cycle of surface cloud forcing shows good agreement with observations in summer. However, during winter the insulating effect of clouds tends to be underestimated in models. During winter, most of the models as well as the observations show higher monthly mean total cloud fractions, associated with larger positive surface cloud forcing. Most models also show good correlation between the surface cloud forcing and the vertically integrated ice and liquid cloud condensate. The wintertime ensemble model mean total cloud fraction (69%) shows excellent agreement with observations. The across-model spread in the winter mean cloudiness is substantial (36?C94%) however and several models significantly underestimate the cloud liquid water content. If the two models not showing any relationship between cloudiness and surface cloud forcing are disregarded, a tentative across-model relation exists, in such a way that models that simulate large winter mean cloudiness also show larger surface cloud forcing. Even though the across-model spread in wintertime surface cloud forcing is large, no clear relation to the surface temperature is found. This indicates that other processes, not explicitly cloud related, are important for the simulated across-model spread in surface temperature.     

Nitrogen and carbon cycling in the North Sea and exchange with the North Atlantic—A model study. Part I. Nitrogen budget and fluxes

The three-dimensional biogeochemical model ECOHAM was applied to the Northwest European Shelf (47°41′–63°53′N, 15°5′W–13°55′E) for the years 1993–1996. Nitrogen budgets were calculated for the years 1995 and 1996 for the inner shelf region, the North Sea (511,725 km²). Simulated temperatures as well as nitrate, oxygen, and chlorophyll concentrations are compared with observations.     

Implications of diverse sedimentation patterns in Hala Lake, Qinghai Province, China for reconstructing Late Quaternary climate

Hala Lake is located in the Qilian Mountains, Qinghai Province, China, at 4,078?m a.s.l. Its sediments contain an archive of climate and hydrologic changes during the Late Quaternary, as it is located close to the area influenced by the East-Asian summer monsoon and westerly-driven air masses. Sedimentation patterns and depositional conditions within the lake were investigated using eight sediment cores from different water depths, and this information was used to evaluate the feasibility of using a single core to reconstruct past climate and hydrological conditions. Long core H7, from the center of the lake (65?m water depth) and core H8 from a western, near-shore location (20?m water depth), were compared in detail using sediment composition and geochemical data (X-ray fluorescence, loss-on-ignition and CNS analysis). Age models were constructed using 17 AMS radiocarbon dates and indicate negligible reservoir error for sediments from the lake center and?~1,000?year errors for the near-shore sediment core. Cores H1?CH5 and HHLS21-1 revealed a sediment succession from sand and silty clay to laminated clay on the southern side of the lake. Undisturbed, finely laminated sediments were found at water depths???15?m. Core H5 (2.5?m long), from 31?m water depth, yielded abundant green algal mats mixed with clayey lake deposits and was difficult to interpret. Algae occurred between 25 and 32?m water depth and influenced the dissolved oxygen content of the stratified lake. Comparison of cores H7 and H8 yielded prominent mismatches for different time periods, which may, in part, be attributed to internal lacustrine processes, independent of climate influence. We thus conclude that data from a single sediment core may lead to different climate inferences. Common shifts among proxy data, however, showed that major climate shifts, of regional to global significance, can be tracked and allow reconstruction of lake level changes over the last 24,000?years. Results indicate advance of glaciers into the lake basin during the LGM, at which time the lake experienced lowest levels, 25?C50?m below present stage. Stepwise refilling began at ca. 16 kyr BP and reached the ?25?m level during the B?lling/Aller?d warm phase, ca. 13.5 kyr BP. A desiccation episode falls within the Younger Dryas, followed by a substantial lake level rise during the first millennium of the Holocene, a result of climate warming, which promoted glacier melt. By ca. 7.6 kyr BP, the lake reached a stable high stand similar to the present level, which persisted until ca. 6 kyr BP. Disturbed sediments in core H7 indicate a single mass flow that was most likely triggered by a major seismic event?~8.5 kyr BP. Subsequent lake development remains unclear as a consequence of data mismatches, but may indicate a general trend to deteriorating conditions and lake level lowstands at ca. 5.0?C4.2, 2.0 and 0.5 kyr BP.     

Preservation of high‐P rocks coupled to rock composition and the absence of metamorphic fluids

Eclogites, blueschists and greenschists are found in close proximity to one another along a 1‐km coastal section where the Cyclades Blueschist Unit (CBU) is exposed on SE Syros, Greece. Here, we show that the eclogites and blueschists experienced the same metamorphic history: prograde lawsonite blueschist facies metamorphism at 1.2–1.9 GPa and 410–530°C followed, at 43–38 Ma, by peak blueschist/eclogite facies metamorphism at 1.5–2.1 GPa and 520–580°C. We explain co‐existence of eclogites and blueschists by compositional variation probably reflecting original compositional layering. It is also shown that the greenschists record retrogression at 0.34 ± 0.21 GPa and T = 456 ± 68°C. This was spatially associated with a shear zone on a scales of 10–100‐m and veins on a scale of 1–10‐cm. Greenschist facies metamorphism ended at (or shortly after) 27 Ma. We thus infer a period of metamorphic quiescence after eclogite/blueschist facies metamorphism and before greenschist facies retrogression which lasted up to 11–16 million years. We suggest that this reflects an absence of metamorphic fluid flow at that time and conclude that greenschist facies retrogression only occurred when and where metamorphic fluids were present. From a tectonic perspective, our findings are consistent with studies showing that the CBU is (a) a high‐P nappe stack consisting of belts in which high‐P metamorphism and exhumation occurred at different times and (b) affected by greenschist facies metamorphism during the Oligocene, prior to the onset of regional tectonic extension.     

Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways

More often than not, assessments of future climate risks are based on future climatic conditions superimposed on current socioeconomic conditions only. The new IPCC-guided alternative global development trends, the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), have the potential to enhance the integration of future socioeconomic conditions—in the form of socioeconomic scenarios—within assessments of future climate risks. Being global development pathways, the SSPs lack regional and sectoral details. To increase their suitability in sectoral and/or regional studies and their relevance for local stakeholders, the SSPs have to be extended. We propose here a new method to extend the SSPs that makes use of existing scenario studies, the (re)use of which has been underestimated so far. Our approach lies in a systematic matching of multiple scenario sets that facilitates enrichment of the global SSPs with regional and sectoral information, in terms of both storylines and quantitative projections. We apply this method to develop extended SSPs of human vulnerability in Europe and to quantify them for a number of key indicators at the sub-national level up to 2050, based on the co-use of the matched scenarios’ quantitative outputs. Results show that such a method leads to internally consistent extended SSPs with detailed and highly quantified narratives that are tightly linked to global contexts. This method also provides multiple entry points where the relevance of scenarios to local stakeholders can be tested and strengthened. The extended SSPs can be readily employed to explore future populations’ vulnerability to climate hazards under varying levels of socioeconomic development.     

Land restoration in food security programmes: synergies with climate change mitigation

Food-insecure households in many countries depend on international aid to alleviate acute shocks and chronic shortages. Some food security programmes (including Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program–PSNP – which provides a case study for this article) have integrated aid in exchange for labour on public works to reduce long-term dependence by investing in the productive capacity and resilience of communities. Using this approach, Ethiopia has embarked upon an ambitious national programme of land restoration and sustainable land management. Although the intent was to reduce poverty, here we show that an unintended co-benefit is the climate-change mitigation from reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increased landscape carbon stocks. The article first shows that the total reduction in net GHG emissions from PSNP’s land management at the national scale is estimated at 3.4 million?Mg?CO₂e?y^?1 – approximately 1.5% of the emissions reductions in Ethiopia’s Nationally Determined Contribution for the Paris Agreement. The article then explores some of the opportunities and constraints to scaling up of this impact.

Key policy insights

• Food security programmes (FSPs) can contribute to climate change mitigation by creating a vehicle for investment in land and ecosystem restoration.

• Maximizing mitigation, while enhancing but not compromising food security, requires that climate projections, and mitigation and adaptation responses should be mainstreamed into planning and implementation of FSPs at all levels.

• Cross-cutting oversight is required to integrate land restoration, climate policy, food security and disaster risk management into a coherent policy framework.

• Institutional barriers to optimal implementation should be addressed, such as incentive mechanisms that reward effort rather than results, and lack of centralized monitoring and evaluation of impacts on the physical environment.

• Project implementation can often be improved by adopting best management practices, such as using productive living livestock barriers where possible, and increasing the integration of agroforestry and non-timber forest products into landscape regeneration.

     

Diffusion versus recrystallization processes in Rb-Sr geochronology: Isotopic relics in eclogite facies rocks, Western Gneiss Region, Norway

Rb-Sr and U-Pb isotopic data for granulite facies rocks, forming textural relics with respect to eclogite facies metamorphism in the Western Gneiss Region (WGR) of Norway, highlight the importance of textures and mineral reaction kinetics for the interpretation of geochronological data. Studied rocks from Bårdsholmen, southern WGR, were subjected to granulite facies metamorphism at 955 ± 3 Ma (U-Pb, zircon). Later on, they experienced a subduction-related, kinetically stranded eclogitization (T > 650 °C at ∼20 kbar) at 404 ± 2 Ma (Rb-Sr multimineral internal isochron data), followed by exhumation through amphibolite facies conditions. Full conversion of granulite to eclogite was restricted to zones of fluid infiltration and deformation. Despite the fact that metamorphic temperatures vastly exceeded the commonly assumed ‘closure temperature’ for Rb-Sr in submillimeter-sized biotite for several Ma during eclogite facies overprint, Sr-isotopic signatures of relic biotite have not been fully reset. Large biotite crystals nearly record their Sveconorwegian (Grenvillian) crystallization age. Sr signatures of other granulite facies phases (feldspar, pyroxenes, amphibole) remained unchanged, with the exception of apatite. The results imply that isotopic signatures much closer correspond to the P, T conditions of formation recorded by a dated phase and its paragenesis, than to a temperature history. In texturally well-equilibrated high-grade rocks which experienced no mineral reactions and remained devoid of free fluids during exhumation, like granulites or eclogites, isotopic resetting during cooling is either kinetically locked, or restricted to sluggish intermineral diffusion which demonstrably does not lead to full isotopic homogenization. In texturally unequilibrated rocks, textural relics are likely to represent isotopic relics. It is shown that for both high-grade rocks and for rocks with textural disequilibria, geologically meaningful isotopic ages based on isochron methods can only be derived from sub-assemblages in isotopic equilibrium, which have to be defined by analysis of all rock-forming minerals. Conventional two-point ‘mica ages’ for such rocks are a priori geochronologically uninterpretable, and valid multimineral isochron ages a priori do not record cooling but instead date recrystallization-inducing processes like fluid-rock interaction.     

Application of ray-traced tropospheric slant delays to geodetic VLBI analysis

The correction of tropospheric influences via so-called path delays is critical for the analysis of observations from space geodetic techniques like the very long baseline interferometry (VLBI). In standard VLBI analysis, the a priori slant path delays are determined using the concept of zenith delays, mapping functions and gradients. The a priori use of ray-traced delays, i.e., tropospheric slant path delays determined with the technique of ray-tracing through the meteorological data of numerical weather models (NWM), serves as an alternative way of correcting the influences of the troposphere on the VLBI observations within the analysis. In the presented research, the application of ray-traced delays to the VLBI analysis of sessions in a time span of 16.5 years is investigated. Ray-traced delays have been determined with program RADIATE (see Hofmeister in Ph.D. thesis, Department of Geodesy and Geophysics, Faculty of Mathematics and Geoinformation, Technische Universität Wien. http://resolver.obvsg.at/urn:nbn:at:at-ubtuw:1-3444, 2016) utilizing meteorological data provided by NWM of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). In comparison with a standard VLBI analysis, which includes the tropospheric gradient estimation, the application of the ray-traced delays to an analysis, which uses the same parameterization except for the a priori slant path delay handling and the used wet mapping factors for the zenith wet delay (ZWD) estimation, improves the baseline length repeatability (BLR) at 55.9% of the baselines at sub-mm level. If no tropospheric gradients are estimated within the compared analyses, 90.6% of all baselines benefit from the application of the ray-traced delays, which leads to an average improvement of the BLR of 1 mm. The effects of the ray-traced delays on the terrestrial reference frame are also investigated. A separate assessment of the RADIATE ray-traced delays is carried out by comparison to the ray-traced delays from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA GSFC) (Eriksson and MacMillan in http://lacerta.gsfc.nasa.gov/tropodelays, 2016) with respect to the analysis performances in terms of BLR results. If tropospheric gradient estimation is included in the analysis, 51.3% of the baselines benefit from the RADIATE ray-traced delays at sub-mm difference level. If no tropospheric gradients are estimated within the analysis, the RADIATE ray-traced delays deliver a better BLR at 63% of the baselines compared to the NASA GSFC ray-traced delays.     

Nocturnal Near-Surface Temperature,but not Flow Dynamics,can be Predicted by Microtopography in a Mid-Range Mountain Valley

We investigate nocturnal flow dynamics and temperature behaviour near the surface of a 170-m long gentle slope in a mid-range mountain valley. In contrast to many existing studies focusing on locations with significant topographic variations, gentle slopes cover a greater spatial extent of the Earth’s surface. Air temperatures were measured using the high-resolution distributed-temperature-sensing method within a two-dimensional fibre-optic array in the lowest metre above the surface. The main objectives are to characterize the spatio-temporal patterns in the near-surface temperature and flow dynamics, and quantify their responses to the microtopography and land cover. For the duration of the experiment, including even clear-sky nights with weak winds and strong radiative forcing, the classical cold-air drainage predicted by theory could not be detected. In contrast, we show that the airflow for the two dominant flow modes originates non-locally. The most abundant flow mode is characterized by vertically-decoupled layers featuring a near-surface flow perpendicular to the slope and strong stable stratification, which contradicts the expectation of a gravity-driven downslope flow of locally produced cold air. Differences in microtopography and land cover clearly affect spatio-temporal temperature perturbations. The second most abundant flow mode is characterized by strong mixing, leading to vertical coupling with airflow directed down the local slope. Here variations of microtopography and land cover lead to negligible near-surface temperature perturbations. We conclude that spatio-temporal temperature perturbations, but not flow dynamics, can be predicted by microtopography, which complicates the prediction of advective-heat components and the existence and dynamics of cold-air pools in gently sloped terrain in the absence of observations.