Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.     

A GIS-based DRASTIC model for assessing groundwater vulnerability in the Ordos Plateau, China

Groundwater plays a key role in arid regions as the majority of water is supplied by it. Groundwater pollution is a major issue, because it is susceptible to contamination from land use and other anthropogenic impacts. A study was carried out to build a vulnerability map for the Ordos Plateau using the DRASTIC model in a GIS environment. The map was designed to show the areas of the highest potential for groundwater pollution based on hydrogeological conditions. Seven environmental parameters, such as depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of the vadose zone media, and hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer, were incorporated into the DRASTIC model and GIS was used to create a groundwater vulnerability map by overlaying the available data. The results of this study show that 24.8 % of the study area has high pollution potential, 24.2 % has moderate pollution potential, 19.7 % has low pollution potential, and the remaining 31.3 % of the area has no risk of groundwater pollution. The regional distribution of nitrate is well correlated with the DRASTIC vulnerability index. In contrast to this, although the DRASTIC model indicated that the western part had no risk, nitrate concentrations were higher in some of these areas. In particular, higher nitrate concentrations were recorded along river valleys and around lakes, such as the Mulin River valley. This is mainly caused by the intensive agricultural development and favorable conditions for recharge along river valleys.     

Evaluation of Combined Direct-Push Methods Used for Aquifer Model Generation

Most established methods to characterize aquifer structure and hydraulic conductivities of hydrostratigraphical units are not capable of delivering sufficient information in the spatial resolution that is desired for sophisticated numerical contaminant transport modeling and adapted remediation design. With hydraulic investigation methods based on the direct-push (DP) technology such as DP slug tests, DP injection logging, and the hydraulic profiling tool, it is possible to rapidly delineate hydrogeological structures and estimate their hydraulic conductivity in shallow unconsolidated aquifers without the need for wells. A combined application of these tools was used for the investigation of a contaminated German refinery site and for the setup of hydraulic aquifer models. The quality of DP investigation and the models was evaluated by comparisons of tracer transport simulations using these models and measured breakthroughs of two natural gradient tracer tests. Model scenarios considering the information of all tools together showed good reproduction of the measured breakthroughs, indicating the suitability of the approach and a minor impact of potential technical limitations. Using the DP slug tests alone yielded significantly higher deviations for the determined hydraulic conductivities compared to considering two or three of the tools. Realistic aquifer models developed on basis of such combined DP investigation approaches can help optimize remediation concepts or identify flow regimes for aquifers with a complex structure.     

Active Galactic Nuclei

F11 Jets, supernovae, gammabursts – more light for theory? F35 A Direct Comparison of the QSO Samples from VPMS and SDSS F36 Gravitational Microlensing Simulations and Ensemble Broad‐Band Variability of the QSOs from VPMS F42 Luminosity function of low redshift quasars F43 Star Formation around Active Galactic Nuclei – Results from near infrared observations F58 High‐Redshift Quasars as Probes of Early Star Formation F66 On the dust emission of Seyfert nuclei F72 Propagation of Very Light MHD Jets F78 Giant Outflows in MassiveHigh‐z Radio Galaxies: Direct Evidence for AGNFeedback in the Early Universe F89 Lowfrequency mapping of ‘normal’ FR II radio galaxies: Resolving the puzzle of X‐shaped radio sources F90 Nature of X‐shaped radio sources: A statistical approach F100 Cosmological growth of Supermassive Black Holes: constraints on kinetic and radiative energy feedback F107 Molecular Tori in AGN F136 Electron‐Ion Recombination Rate Coefficients of Iron M‐Shell Ions for X‐Ray Astronomy F139 Hydrodynamic models of obscuring tori F145 The unique BL Lac Object S5 0716+714 F158 On the Cluster Environment of the BL Lac Object OJ 287 F179 The circumnuclear dust in nearby AGN resolved by mid‐infrared interferometry F184 NIR‐imaging of SDSS BL Lac objects F190 Blazar Observations in the TeV energy range with the MAGIC Telescope F198 Gas Inflow Rates in Nearby AGN Galaxies F202 Two zone SSC model for blazar jets F215 Long‐termVHE γ ‐ray monitoring of bright blazars with a dedicated telescope F218 Long termmonitoring of bright TeV Blazars with the MAGIC telescope F220 Fifteen Blazars in Very‐High Energy Gamma Rays: A Comparative Study F229 Numerical calculation of blazar spectra. Application to 1 ES 1218+30.4 F230 Blazar spectral energy distributions corrected for gamma ray attenuation F240 Observation of PG 1553+113 with the MAGIC Telescope F243 VHE Gamma‐Ray Flare of PKS2155‐304 detected by the MAGIC telescope F245 Observations of 3C279 with the MAGIC Telescope F258 Diffraction limited near infrared imaging spectroscopy of the NLR of NGC4151     

Magnetostratigraphic results from the eastern Arctic Ocean: AMS 14C ages and relative palaeointensity data of the Mono Lake and Laschamp geomagnetic reversal excursions

A new high-resolution magnetostratigraphic record from the eastern Arctic Ocean has yielded further evidence for the existence of the Laschamp excursion (37–35  ka), the Mono Lake excursion (27–25.5  ka) and possibly another very short excursion (22  ka) inferred from steep negative inclinations. Ages are based on nine AMS (accelerator mass spectrometry) ¹⁴C dates, oxygen isotope stratigraphy and correlation with ODP site 983. Estimates of relative palaeointensity variations for the time interval from 80 to 10  ka have revealed that the documented geomagnetic excursions are linked to large fluctuations of the relative palaeointensity. The lowest values were obtained for the two excursions and the normal–reversed (N–R) and reversed–normal (R–N) transitions of the Laschamp polarity excursion, which itself is characterized by a slight increase of relative palaeointensity during its reversed state. The results are in general agreement with palaeointensity studies from other regions, indicating that these fluctuations could be global phenomena and that the geomagnetic field of the Brunhes Chron was very variable in amplitude as well as in geometry. The new result is one of the rare records comprising large directional as well as large relative palaeointensity variations.     

Estimating reliability and resolution of probability forecasts through decomposition of the empirical score

Proper scoring rules provide a useful means to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. Independent from scoring rules, it has been argued that reliability and resolution are desirable forecast attributes. The mathematical expectation value of the score allows for a decomposition into reliability and resolution related terms, demonstrating a relationship between scoring rules and reliability/resolution. A similar decomposition holds for the empirical (i.e. sample average) score over an archive of forecast–observation pairs. This empirical decomposition though provides a too optimistic estimate of the potential score (i.e. the optimum score which could be obtained through recalibration), showing that a forecast assessment based solely on the empirical resolution and reliability terms will be misleading. The differences between the theoretical and empirical decomposition are investigated, and specific recommendations are given how to obtain better estimators of reliability and resolution in the case of the Brier and Ignorance scoring rule.     

Geochronological and petrological constraints from the evolution in the Saxon Granulite Massif,Germany, on the Variscan continental collision orogeny

Controversy over the plate tectonic affinity and evolution of the Saxon granulites in a two‐ or multi‐plate setting during inter‐ or intracontinental collision makes the Saxon Granulite Massif a key area for the understanding of the Palaeozoic Variscan orogeny. The massif is a large dome structure in which tectonic slivers of metapelite and metaophiolite units occur along a shear zone separating a diapir‐like body of high‐P granulite below from low‐P metasedimentary rocks above. Each of the upper structural units records a different metamorphic evolution until its assembly with the exhuming granulite body. New age and petrologic data suggest that the metaophiolites developed from early Cambrian protoliths during high‐P amphibolite facies metamorphism in the mid‐ to late‐Devonian and thermal overprinting by the exhuming hot granulite body in the early Carboniferous. A correlation of new Ar–Ar biotite ages with published P–T–t data for the granulites implies that exhumation and cooling of the granulite body occurred at average rates of ~8 mm/year and ~80°C/Ma, with a drop in exhumation rate from ~20 to ~2.5 mm/year and a slight rise in cooling rate between early and late stages of exhumation. A time lag of c. 2 Ma between cooling through the closure temperatures for argon diffusion in hornblende and biotite indicates a cooling rate of 90°C/Ma when all units had assembled into the massif. A two‐plate model of the Variscan orogeny in which the above evolution is related to a short‐lived intra‐Gondwana subduction zone conflicts with the oceanic affinity of the metaophiolites and the timescale of c. 50 Ma for the metamorphism. Alternative models focusing on the internal Variscan belt assume distinctly different material paths through the lower or upper crust for strikingly similar granulite massifs. An earlier proposed model of bilateral subduction below the internal Variscan belt may solve this problem.     

Assessing biomarker syngeneity using branched alkanes with quaternary carbon (BAQCs) and other plastic contaminants

Biomarker molecules are valuable for the elucidation of ancient microbial ecosystems and the characterization of petroleum source rocks. For such studies, acquisition of reliable hydrocarbon data and proof of their syngeneity are essential. However, contamination of geological samples with anthropogenic petroleum products during drilling, storage and sampling can be particularly problematic because these hydrocarbons may over-print an original indigenous biomarker profile. To evaluate the extent of contamination of drill core and outcrop material, we studied the distribution of hydrocarbons in 26 rocks from different locations in the world. All rocks had petroleum products on their exterior surfaces. Twenty-two samples also contained surficial hydrocarbons derived from polyethylene plastic, including branched alkanes with quaternary carbon centers (BAQCs) and alkylcyclopentanes with pronounced even-over-odd carbon number preference. Using three examples from the Paleoproterozoic Tawallah and McArthur Groups in northern Australia, we show how indigenous biomarkers can be recognized by comparing hydrocarbon distributions between exterior rock surfaces and the rock interior, and how infiltration of allochthonous hydrocarbons can be assessed through the spatial distribution of characteristic polyethylene derived hydrocarbons in the rock. The methods outlined in this paper give confidence in the interpretation of biomarkers in particularly sensitive applications such as the first occurrences of certain organisms in the geological record and the provenance of organic matter in meteorites.