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21.
Jochen Br?cker 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(3-4):655-667
Proper scoring rules provide a useful means to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. Independent from scoring rules, it has been argued that reliability and resolution are desirable forecast attributes. The mathematical expectation value of the score allows for a decomposition into reliability and resolution related terms, demonstrating a relationship between scoring rules and reliability/resolution. A similar decomposition holds for the empirical (i.e. sample average) score over an archive of forecast–observation pairs. This empirical decomposition though provides a too optimistic estimate of the potential score (i.e. the optimum score which could be obtained through recalibration), showing that a forecast assessment based solely on the empirical resolution and reliability terms will be misleading. The differences between the theoretical and empirical decomposition are investigated, and specific recommendations are given how to obtain better estimators of reliability and resolution in the case of the Brier and Ignorance scoring rule. 相似文献
22.
Konstantinos S. Kalogerakis Jochen Marschall Patricia A. Engel Rhiannon T. Meharchand Michael H. Wong 《Icarus》2008,196(1):202-215
We report laboratory experiments and modeling calculations investigating the effect of a hydrocarbon coating on ammonia ice spectral signatures. Observational evidence and thermochemical models indicate an abundance of ammonia ice clouds in Jupiter's atmosphere. However, spectrally identifiable ammonia ice clouds are found covering less than 1% of Jupiter's atmosphere, notably in areas of strong vertical transport, indicating a short lifetime for the signature of ammonia absorption on condensed ammonia particles [Baines, K.H., Carlson, R.W., Kamp, L.W., 2002. Icarus 159, 74-94]. Current literature has suggested coating of ammonia ice particles by a hydrocarbon haze as a possible explanation for this paradox. The work presented here supports the inference of a coating effect that can alter or suppress ammonia absorption features. In the experiments, thin films of ammonia ices are deposited in a cryogenic apparatus, coated with hydrocarbons, and characterized by reflection-absorption infrared spectroscopy. We have observed the effects on the ammonia ice absorption features near 3 and 9 μm with coverage by thin layers of hydrocarbons. Modeling calculations of these multilayer thin films assist in the interpretation of the experimental results and reveal the important role of optical interference in altering the aforementioned ammonia spectral features. Mie and T-matrix scattering calculations demonstrate analogous effects for ammonia ice particles and investigate the relative effects of ammonia ice particle size, shape, and coating layer thickness on the ice particle spectral signatures. 相似文献
23.
Jan-Ludolf Merkens Daniel Lincke Jochen Hinkel Sally Brown Athanasios Thomas Vafeidis 《Climatic change》2018,151(3-4):413-426
Large-area coastal exposure and impact analysis has focussed on using sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios and has placed little emphasis on socioeconomic scenarios, while neglecting spatial variations of population dynamics. We use the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) Framework to assess the population exposed to 1 in 100-year coastal flood events under different population scenarios, that are consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); and different SLR scenarios, derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCPs); and analyse the effect of accounting for regionalised population dynamics on population exposure until 2100. In a reference approach, we use homogeneous population growth on national level. In the regionalisation approaches, we test existing spatially explicit projections that also account for urbanisation, coastal migration and urban sprawl. Our results show that projected global exposure in 2100 ranges from 100 million to 260 million, depending on the combination of SLR and population scenarios and method used for regionalising the population projections. The assessed exposure based on the regionalised approaches is higher than that derived from the reference approach by up to 60 million people (39%). Accounting for urbanisation and coastal migration leads to an increase in exposure, whereas considering urban sprawl leads to lower exposure. Differences between the reference and the regionalised approaches increase with higher SLR. The regionalised approaches show highest exposure under SSP5 over most of the twenty-first century, although total population in SSP5 is the second lowest overall. All methods project the largest absolute growth in exposure for Asia and relative growth for Africa. 相似文献
24.
The paleoceanography in the Nordic seas was characterized by apparently repeated switching on and off of Atlantic water advection.
In contrast, a continous influx of Atlantic waters probably occurred along the northern Barents Sea margin during the last
150 ka. Temporary ice-free conditions enhanced by subsurface Atlantic water advection and coastal polynyas accelerated the
final ice sheet build-up during glacial times. The virtually complete dissolution of biogenic calcite during interglacial
intervals was controlled mainly by CO2-rich bottom waters and oxidation of higher levels of marine organic carbon and indicates intensive Atlantic water inflow
and a stable ice margin.
Received: 25 February 1997 / Revision received: 4 March 1998 相似文献
25.
Abhijit Mukherjee Prosun Bhattacharya Fei Shi Alan E. Fryar Arun B. Mukherjee Zheng M. Xie Gunnar Jacks Jochen Bundschuh 《Applied Geochemistry》2009
Elevated As concentrations in groundwater of the Huhhot basin (HB), Inner Mongolia, China, and the western Bengal basin (WBB), India, have been known for decades. However, few studies have been performed to comprehend the processes controlling overall groundwater chemistry in the HB. In this study, the controls on solute chemistry in the HB have been interpreted and compared with the well-studied WBB, which has a very different climate, physiography, lithology, and aquifer characteristics than the HB. In general, there are marked differences in solute chemistry between HB and WBB groundwaters. Stable isotopic signatures indicate meteoric recharge in the HB in a colder climate, distant from the source of moisture, in comparison to the warm, humid WBB. The major-ion composition of the moderately reducing HB groundwater is dominated by a mixed-ion (Ca–Na–HCO3–Cl) hydrochemical facies with an evolutionary trend along the regional hydraulic gradient. Molar ratios and thermodynamic calculations show that HB groundwater has not been affected by cation exchange, but is dominated by weathering of feldspars (allitization) and equilibrium with gibbsite and anorthite. Mineral weathering and mobilization of As could occur as recharging water flows through fractured, argillaceous, metamorphic or volcanic rocks in the adjoining mountain-front areas, and deposits solutes near the center of the basin. In contrast, WBB groundwater is Ca–HCO3-dominated, indicative of calcite weathering, with some cation exchange and silicate weathering (monosiallitization). 相似文献
26.
Determination of deployment specific chemical uptake rates for SPMD and PDMS using a passive flow monitor 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Passive sampling techniques facilitate the time-integrated measurement of pollutant concentrations through the use of a selective receiving phase. Accurate quantification using passive sampling devices rely on the implementation of methods that will negate the effects of environmental factors (flow, temperature, etc.) or that will allow the calculation of the chemical specific rates of uptake (R(s)) into the passive sampler employed. We have applied an in situ calibration technique based on the dissolution of gypsum to measure the average water velocity to which a sampler has been exposed. We demonstrate that the loss of gypsum from the passive flow monitor (PFM) can be applied to predict changes in R(s) dependent on flow when using the absorbent SPMD (semipermeable membrane device) and PDMS (polydimethyl siloxan) passive samplers. The application of the PFM will enhance the accuracy of measurements made when calculating and reporting environmental pollutant concentrations using a passive sampling device. 相似文献
27.
Dynamics of the circulation in the Sea of Marmara: numerical modeling experiments and observations from the Turkish straits system experiment 总被引:4,自引:3,他引:1
Jacopo?ChiggiatoEmail author Ewa?Jarosz Jeffrey?W.?Book James?Dykes Lucio?Torrisi Pierre-Marie?Poulain Riccardo?Gerin Jochen?Horstmann ?ükrü?Be?iktepe 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(1):139-159
During September 2008 and February 2009, the NR/V Alliance extensively sampled the waters of the Sea of Marmara within the
framework of the Turkish Straits System (TSS) experiment coordinated by the NATO Undersea Research Centre. The observational
effort provided an opportunity to set up realistic numerical experiments for modeling the observed variability of the Marmara
Sea upper layer circulation at mesoscale resolution over the entire basin during the trial period, complementing relevant
features and forcing factors revealed by numerical model results with information acquired from in situ and remote sensing
datasets. Numerical model solutions from realistic runs using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) produce a general
circulation in the Sea of Marmara that is consistent with previous knowledge of the circulation drawn from past hydrographic
measurements, with a westward meandering current associated with a recurrent large anticyclone. Additional idealized numerical
experiments illuminate the role various dynamics play in determining the Sea of Marmara circulation and pycnocline structure.
Both the wind curl and the strait flows are found to strongly influence the strength and location of the main mesoscale features.
Large displacements of the pycnocline depth were observed during the sea trials. These displacements can be interpreted as
storm-driven upwelling/downwelling dynamics associated with northeasterly winds; however, lateral advection associated with
flow from the Straits also played a role in some displacements. 相似文献
28.
29.
Oswaldo Eduardo Ramos Ramos Luis Fernando Cáceres Mauricio Rodolfo Ormachea Muñoz Prosun Bhattacharya Israel Quino Jorge Quintanilla Ondra Sracek Roger Thunvik Jochen Bundschuh Maria Eugenia García 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,66(3):793-807
Water management in semiarid and arid catchments such as the Poopó Lake Basin requires improved understanding of the complex behavior of the various contaminants, which affect the drinking water quality and considered as crucial for sustainable development of the region. Mechanisms of arsenic (As) release in the surface and groundwater were studied. Hydrochemical data for surface water (4 samples) and groundwater (28 samples) were collected in a small watershed in the Poopó catchment at the highland of the Bolivian Andes (Altiplano). All of them show high electrical conductivity values and moderately oxidizing conditions. The surface water contains high concentration of sulfate and the trace elements As, Zn and Pb in the zone affected by acid mine drainage. There is a large variability of the concentration of As and of the trace elements in the groundwater in the five different regions within the Poopó catchment. The metal concentrations sensitive to changes of redox state and results of speciation modeling suggest that As (V) is a predominant aqueous species, which conforms to the prevailing oxidizing conditions in the shallow groundwater environment. Two generalized trends for As distribution were identified in groundwater: (a) high concentrations are found in the arid zone (100–250 μg/L) in the southern (region III) and in the northwestern (region V) regions, and (b) low concentrations (<50 μg/L) are found in the remaining part of the basin (region I, II and IV). However, the spatial distribution within these regions needs to be investigated further. A conclusion from the present study is that there are multiple sources of As as well as other trace elements (such as Cd, Mn and Zn) in the Poopó Lake Basin. Among the sources and the processes which led to the mobility of As and other trace metals in the region are: (a) weathering of sulfide minerals, (b) oxidation of pyrite and/or arsenopyrite in mineralized areas and (c) desorption from hydrous ferric oxide (HFO) surfaces. In non-mining areas, volcanic ash is suggested to be a significant source of As. 相似文献
30.