Earthquake early warning as a tool for improving society’s resilience and crisis response

Increasing vulnerability of metropolitan areas to earthquake and the very low probability level at which short term earthquake forecasting is possible make earthquake early warning methods (EEW) the main viable alternative for effective risk reduction in cities. Preventive actions, such as retrofitting and building and the diffusion of construction codes, are of course essential. They are not sufficient. A substantial proportion of the population in areas of higher earthquake hazard still reside in buildings that do not meet modern earthquake resistant standards, and cannot currently be strengthened in an economically viable manner. As demonstrated in Japan EEW has the potential of significantly contributing to reduce individual vulnerability of urban population to earthquakes. Future research on EEW should be focused on its implementation to protect lifelines, infrastructures and strategic buildings, and it should include training of administrators and people who can fully exploit the technological advantages offered by EEW systems. In particular it should foresee extensive cost-benefit analysis for each potential application, the identification and solution of legal problems (such as liability in the event of false or missed alarms), education and training, both for mitigation and response, as well as detection and processing within 1 s of the first seismic wave arrivals. Further objectives include the development of people-centred EEW, specialized IT and decision making support systems, integration of sensors, communications and decision making systems, integration into programs of eco-sustainable development, and integration with other EW systems (all hazard systems).     

The electric field gradient in natural iron-doped chrysoberyl Al<Subscript>2</Subscript>BeO<Subscript>4</Subscript> and sinhalite MgAlBO<Subscript>4</Subscript> single crystals

This work reports on the evaluation of the electric field gradient (EFG) in natural chrysoberyl Al₂BeO₄ and sinhalite MgAlBO₄ using two different procedures: (1) experimental, with single crystal Mössbauer spectroscopy (SCMBS) on the three principal sections of each sample and (2) a “fully quantitative” method with cluster molecular orbital calculations based on the density functional theory. Whereas the experimental and theoretical results for the EFG tensor are in quantitative agreement, the calculated isomer shifts and optical d–d-transitions exhibit systematic deviations from the measured values. These deviations indicate that the substitution of Al and Mg with iron should be accompanied by considerable local expansion of the coordination octahedra.     

Field relationship of high-grade Neo- to Mesoarchaean rocks of South-East Greenland: Tectonometamorphic and magmatic evolution

South-East Greenland forms part of the North Atlantic Craton and is characterized by migmatitic orthogneisses, narrow bands of mafic granulite, ultramafic and possible meta-sedimentary rocks, and alkaline-carbonatitic intrusive rocks. Mafic granulite, meta-sedimentary and ultramafic rocks form the basement for the emplacement of granitic intrusions at ca. 2865 Ma that lasted episodically until ca. 2790 Ma and continuously during 2750–2700 Ma. The area is structurally complex with evidence of at least seven deformation events including reclined and mushroom-like fold interference patterns. An older (> 2790 Ma) foliation formed in granitic rocks and the basement during the Timmiarmiut Orogeny (D_T). Deformation associated with the ca. 2790–2700 Ma Skjoldungen Orogeny folded this early foliation, and is associated with a penetrative foliation that is refolded progressively in a northeast–southwest oriented stress field. The orientation of the stress field progressively rotated into a northnorthwest–southsoutheast orientation during the last stages of the orogeny. The orogeny is also characterized by syn-deformational anatexis at granulite-facies (at approximately 800 °C and 5–8 kbar, ca. 2790–2740 Ma), which decreased to the amphibolite-facies at ca. 2730 Ma.The late- to post-tectonic granite and alkaline rocks assigned to the Skjoldungen Alkaline Province intruded the central-northern part around 2710 Ma. This was followed by north–south extensional deformation during the Singertat Stage forming discrete shear-zones at greenschist-facies grades, which is coeval with the emplacement of pegmatite, ijolite, and carbonatite emplacement during ca. 2680–2650 Ma.Similar lithology and tectonic processes in the Tasiusarsuaq Terrane of southern West Greenland and the Lewisian Complex in Scotland suggest a possibly large Archaean terrane at that time, which, taking the present size, at least covered around 500–600 km in an east–west direction and approximately 200 km in a north–south direction.     

Monitoring pesticides in the Great Barrier Reef

Pesticide runoff from agriculture poses a threat to water quality in the world heritage listed Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and sensitive monitoring tools are needed to detect these pollutants. This study investigated the utility of passive samplers in this role through deployment during a wet and dry season at river mouths, two near-shore regions and an offshore region. The nearshore marine environment was shown to be contaminated with pesticides in both the dry and wet seasons (average water concentrations of 1.3-3.8 ng L⁻¹ and 2.2-6.4 ng L⁻¹, respectively), while no pesticides were detected further offshore. Continuous monitoring of two rivers over 13 months showed waters flowing to the GBR were contaminated with herbicides (diuron, atrazine, hexazinone) year round, with highest average concentrations present during summer (350 ng L⁻¹). The use of passive samplers has enabled identification of insecticides in GBR waters which have not been reported in the literature previously.     

Microzonation of Potenza (Southern Italy) in terms of spectral intensity ratio using joint analysis of earthquakes and ambient noise

A temporary seismic network composed of 11 stations was installed in the city of Potenza (Southern Italy) to record local and regional seismicity within the context of a national project funded by the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC). Some stations were moved after a certain time in order to increase the number of measurement points, leading to a total of 14 sites within the city by the end of the experiment. Recordings from 26 local earthquakes (M_l 2.2−3.8 ) were analyzed to compute the site responses at the 14 sites by applying both reference and non-reference site techniques. Furthermore, the Spectral Intensity (SI) for each local earthquake, as well as their ratios with respect to the values obtained at a reference site, were also calculated. In addition, a field survey of 233 single station noise measurements within the city was carried out to increase the information available at localities different from the 14 monitoring sites. By using the results of the correlation analysis between the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios computed from noise recordings (NHV) at the 14 selected sites and those derived by the single station noise measurements within the town as a proxy, the spectral intensity correction factors for site amplification obtained from earthquake analysis were extended to the entire city area. This procedure allowed us to provide a microzonation map of the urban area that can be directly used when calculating risk scenarios for civil defence purposes. The amplification factors estimated following this approach show values increasing along the main valley toward east where the detrital and alluvial complexes reach their maximum thickness.     

Coseismic slip model of the 2007 August Pisco earthquake (Peru) as constrained by Wide Swath radar observations

The Pisco earthquake ( M _w 8.0; 2007 August 15) occurred offshore of Peru's southern coast at the subduction interface between the Nazca and South American plates. It ruptured a previously identified seismic gap along the Peruvian margin. We use Wide Swath InSAR observations acquired by the Envisat satellite in descending and ascending orbits to constrain coseismic slip distribution of this subduction earthquake. The data show movement of the coastal regions by as much as 85 cm in the line-of-sight of the satellite. Distributed-slip model indicates that the coseismic slip reaches values of about 5.5 m at a depth of ∼18–20 km. The slip is confined to less than 40 km depth, with most of the moment release located on the shallow parts of the interface above 30 km depth. The region with maximum coseismic slip in the InSAR model is located offshore, close to the seismic moment centroid location. The geodetic estimate of seismic moment is 1.23 × 10²¹ Nm ( M _w 8.06), consistent with seismic estimates. The slip model inferred from the InSAR observations suggests that the Pisco earthquake ruptured only a portion of the seismic gap zone in Peru between 13.5° S and 14.5° S, hence there is still a significant seismic gap to the south of the 2007 event that has not experienced a large earthquake since at least 1687.     

Long term monitoring of photosystem II herbicides--correlation with remotely sensed freshwater extent to monitor changes in the quality of water entering the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

Photosystem II (PSII) herbicides are used in large quantities on agricultural lands adjoining the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Routine monitoring at 14 sites in inshore waters of the GBR using passive sampling techniques detected diuron (32-94% of sampling periods) at maximum concentrations of 1.7-430ng L(-1) in the relatively pristine Cape York Region to the Mackay Whitsunday Region, respectively. A PSII herbicide equivalent (PSII-HEq) index developed as an indicator for reporting was dominated by diuron (average contribution 89%) and typically increased during the wet season. The maximum PSII-HEq indicates the potential for photosynthetic inhibition of diatoms, seagrass and coral-symbionts. PSII herbicides were significantly positively correlated with remotely sensed coloured dissolved organic matter, a proxy for freshwater extent. Combining these methods provides for the first time the potential to cost-effectively monitor improvements in water quality entering the GBR with respect to exposure to PSII herbicides.     

Symbiont-specific responses in foraminifera to the herbicide diuron

The effects of the photosystem II (PSII) herbicide diuron was assessed on thirteen tropical foraminifera hosting diatom, dinoflagellate, red or green algae endosymbionts. Inhibition of photosynthesis (reduced ΔF/F(m)(')) by diuron depended on both symbiont type and test ultrastructure, with greatest sensitivity observed for diatom- and chlorophyte-hosting species (24h IC(25) 2.5-4μg L(-1)). Inhibition kinetics was slow (24-48h until maximum inhibition) in comparison with corals, suggesting structural differences may influence herbicide uptake and transport. Although foraminifera were generally less sensitive to direct effects of diuron (inhibition ΔF/F(m)(')) than other marine phototrophs, damage to PSII (reduction F(v)/F(m)) occurred at concentrations lower than observed for other organisms (24h IC(25) 3-12μg L(-1)). Damage to PSII was highly light dependent and occurred at very low light intensities indicating limited photoprotective capacity. The high diversity, widespread occurrence and relative sensitivity make foraminifera good bioindicator organisms to evaluate phytotoxic stress on coral reefs.     

Earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting as real-time hazard information to mitigate seismic risk at nuclear facilities

Based on our experience in the project REAKT, we present a methodological framework to evaluate the potential benefits and costs of using earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) for real-time mitigation of seismic risk at nuclear facilities. We focus on evaluating the reliability, significance and usefulness of the aforementioned real-time risk-mitigation tools and on the communication of real-time earthquake information to end-users. We find that EEW and OEF have significant potential for the reduction of seismic risk at nuclear plants, although much scientific research and testing is still necessary to optimise their operation for these sensitive and highly-regulated facilities. While our test bed was Switzerland, the methodology presented here is of general interest to the community of EEW researchers and end-users and its scope is significantly beyond its specific application within REAKT.