Uncertainty analysis of space–time prisms based on the moment-design method

Space–time prism (STP) is an important concept for the modeling of object movements in space and time. An STP can be conceptualized as the result of the potential path of a moving object revolving around in the three-dimensional space. Though the concept has found applications in time geography, research on the analysis and propagation of uncertainty in STPs, particularly under high degree of nonlinearity, is scanty. Based on the efficiency and effectiveness of the moment-design (M-D) method, this paper proposes an approach to deal with nonlinear error propagation problems in the potential path areas (PPAs) of STPs and their intersections. Propagation of errors to the PPA and its boundary, and to the intersection of two PPAs is investigated. Performance of the proposed method is evaluated via a series of experimental studies. In comparison with the Monte Carlo method and the implicit function method, simulation results show the advantages of the M-D method in the analysis of error propagation in STPs.     

A new assessment model for evacuation vulnerability in urban areas

In the high-speed urbanization process of China, the urban population has been increasing significantly, leading to a high-density aggregation of population. However, the sharp increase in population density has not produced commensurate improvements in the road networks. On the contrary, the population increase induced a serious evacuation vulnerability, which cities experience during various hazards and catastrophic events. Therefore, research on evacuation vulnerability is important to urban planning. To assess the evacuation vulnerability, the optimal and worst scenarios should be considered because all possible evacuation plans occur between these extremes. However, most previous evacuation vulnerability studies are based on the worst-case scenario, only providing an upper bound of a potential evacuation assessment. To provide a more comprehensive theoretical basis for decision-makers to understand the consequences caused by all possible evacuations, this paper proposes an optimal evacuation vulnerability assessment model that provides the lower bound on potential evacuation difficulties. The model is solved by a stepwise spreading algorithm based on Graph Theory. Subsequently, to evaluate the effectiveness of the model, the study adopts the model to assess the evacuation capability of different road network topologies. A comparison with previous research was performed. The model was demonstrated in an application to the South Luogu Alley of Beijing, China. The significance of this paper is that the combination of our model with previous research may provide a more complete theoretical basis for an evacuation vulnerability assessment.     

Enhancement of a hypoplastic model for granular soil–structure interface behaviour

Modelling of interfaces in geotechnical engineering is an important issue. Interfaces between structural elements (e.g., anchors, piles, tunnel linings) and soils are widely used in geotechnical engineering. The objective of this article is to propose an enhanced hypoplastic interface model that incorporates the in-plane stresses at the interface. To this aim, we develop a general approach to convert the existing hypoplastic model with a predefined limit state surface for sands into an interface model. This is achieved by adopting reduced stress and stretching vectors and redefining tensorial operations which can be used in the existing continuum model with few modifications. The enhanced interface model and the previous model are compared under constant-load, stiffness and volume conditions. The comparison is followed by a verification of two the approaches for modelling the different surface roughness. Subsequently, a validation between available experimental data from the literature versus simulations is presented. The new enhanced model gives improved predictions by the incorporation of in-plane stresses into the model formulation.     

Data integration in characterizing a fracture-cavity reservoir,Tahe oilfield,Tarim basin,China

Fracture-cavity reservoirs can be described in terms of storage space, filling materials and distribution, however, characterizing these variables remains a challenge. In this study, a method was developed to characterize complex reservoirs by integrating outcrop, core, well log, and seismic data from the Tahe oilfield. Outcrop analogs were used to identify and qualitatively analyze the genesis of different reservoir spaces. Cores, well logs, and seismic data were used to identify different types of reservoir space in the subsurface, to describe the spatial distribution, and to establish the distribution pattern of fracture-cavity reservoirs. Clastic sediments, collapse breccia, and chemical fillings were described from the cores and used to assess porosity and permeability. On the basis of the results, a three-dimensional geological model was constructed incorporating a structural model, a reservoir space model, and a property model. Caves and fractures were the main storage spaces and seepage passages. The cave model was built using multi-point geostatistical simulation, while the fracture model was established using deterministic modeling combined with manual interpretations and ant-tracking technology.