公众天气预报传播过程的数学模型

仿照流行病传播模型的思路,给出了公众天气预报传播过程最简单的数学模型     

用改性粘土矿物治理赤潮灾害的前景

赤潮,这一当今全球性的海洋灾害,正严重干扰着３０多个沿海国家的经济发展。近年来,我国已成为一个赤潮灾害多发的国家。我国大陆沿海１９７２年至１９９４年记录有２５６次赤潮灾害,且呈逐年增加趋势。据统计,仅１９９８年的赤潮所造成的经济损失就已超过１０亿人民币。１９９８年是我国赤潮重灾年：三四月份,赤潮袭击香港,造成约３亿港元的损失。广东省从饶平市、汕尾市到深圳、珠海、阳江沿海相继发生了赤潮,蔓延速度之快,致灾面积之大,实属历史罕见,是广东省近１３年来最严重的一次,造成的经济损失超过１亿元。１９９８年下…     

兰州第四纪黄土/古土壤序列物源演变: 来自于碳酸盐矿物的证据*

黄土/古土壤的物源研究对于揭示第四纪气候变化和青藏高原隆升历史具有重要意义。本研究以位于黄土高原西部1.4 Ma以来的兰州黄土/古土壤沉积序列为研究对象,基于X射线衍射技术分析了黄土/古土壤中的主要矿物组成,侧重于碳酸盐矿物含量,追溯了兰州黄土/古土壤的直接物源。结果显示: (1)1.4 Ma以来兰州地区黄土/古土壤沉积物的主要直接源区为柴达木盆地沙漠区和阿拉善干旱区。(2)基于二元混合模型计算的潜在原始源区对兰州黄土白云石和总碳酸盐矿物的相对贡献率以及长石与石英比值结果一致支持1.4 Ma以来兰州黄土原始物源发生了多次变化。1.4~1.1 Ma和0.9~0.3 Ma青藏高原东北缘造山带(昆仑山、祁连山)和中亚造山带对兰州黄土的贡献相当,而1.1~0.9 Ma和0.3 Ma以来,中亚造山带对兰州黄土的物源贡献增加,这可能分别是对中更新世气候转型和0.3 Ma以来青藏高原及邻近地区干冷气候增强的响应。1.15 Ma和0.8 Ma兰州黄土/古土壤中高的白云石含量、碳酸盐矿物总含量以及0.8 Ma长石与石英比值的快速升高可能是对“昆黄运动”的响应,进而造成了昆仑山、祁连山对黄土高原物源贡献的增加。     

Forced regression and its sedimentary response to continental lacustrine rift basin: A case of the Member 3 of Shahejie Formation in Laizhouwan sag,Bohai Bay Basin

Falling stage systems tract(FSST)is an offlap strata with strong relationship with hydrocarbon exploration,which is driven by relative lake-level fall and developed above the highstand systems tract and below the lowstand systems tract of a new sequence. It has no relationship with sediment supply. Based on the theory of sequence stratigraphy and sedimentology,3D seismic data,drilling core data,and well-logging data were comprehensively analyzed. The study showed that the FSST strata was formed in the Member 3 of Shahejie Formation in the Laizhouwan sag. The FSST can be divided into three units,namely as units P1,P2,and P3 from bottom to top. The P1 is the first unit of progradation downlap the bottom of the FSST. The top of the unit P3 is a sequence boundary exhibits subaerial unconformity. The seismic profile along the source direction is characterized by the low-angle oblique progradation reflection that downstream the center of lake basin from west to east. Incised valleys developed on the top of the FSST perpendicular to the source direction. Gamma-ray logging response is manifested by a series of funnel-shaped complex,indicating that the sedimentary response of the FSST was a cycle of coarsening-upward parasequence sets. Comprehensive studies on core interpretation and well-logging analysis showed that the FSST was a fluvial-delta sedimentary system with slumped fan deposits associated with the delta front. Consequently,the FSST is a common result of relative dry climate and falling of lake level,considering regional tectonic evolution,sediment supply,and paleo-climate change. The discovery of the FSST in the Laizhouwan sag has an important geological significance for the sedimentological interpretation,and it offers a guidance for further oil exploration in the study area. In addition,it also serves as a significant reference for future research on the FSST development and exploration in the continental lacustrine rift basin.     

Key signatures of turbidite and sandy debris and core examples in Liaohe Basin

Gravity flow is a widely-distributed fluid type in nature. Various classification schemes of gravity flow are proposed by different researchers from different viewpoints. The scheme of turbidity flow and debris flow is adopted in this paper. The sedimentary characteristics of turbidite and sandy debrite are summarized and discussed to clarify most typical facies marks of these two rock types. The study shows that turbidite and sandy debris can be identified by the following typical characteristics during the outcrop and core observation: If the graded bedding is developed in sandstone,it should be identified as turbidite;if the muddy rip-up clast or no bedding structure(massive sandstone)is developed in sandstone,it should be identified as sandy debris. These characteristics are the most reliable signatures to distinguish turbidite and sandy debris. In addition,some other sedimentary structures such as deformation bedding,climbing ripple cross bedding,wavy bedding,parallel bedding,scouring surface,lithologic abrupt interface,and flute cast also have certain indicative significance. It is necessary to make a comprehensive judgment based on the sedimentary background,vertical combination of lithofacies,geophysics and other materials when these characteristics are presented in the study.     

“将古论今”——环境科学研究中的历史地质学方法

传统地质学的“将今论古”方法使地质学取得了巨大的成就,而且还将是今后地质学发展的指导思想,但面对资源、环境、减灾等人类在二十一世纪的主要问题,地球科学所面对的问题时,地质学家首先应该改变或者更新自己的思维方式。如果以地球演化的同一性原理来认识地球,则“将古论今”的方法对解决地球科学面临的挑战人有重要的意义。以历史地质学的方法和视角,研究地质过程的发生、发展和演化过程,以及这种过程在今天和明天的演化趋势,及其对人类生存环境的影响,将是今后一十时期地质科学的主要任务。     

我国工程水文分析计算的新进展

通过对我国在工程水文分析计算的回顾,总结了近年来我国在洪水频率分析、洪水不确定性研究、人类活动及气候变化对径流的影响等方面的最新进展,提出了今后水文计算的研究方向。     

东北地区近震震级研究

实际观测表明,用现行短周期仪器起算函数Ｒ１测算的近震震级ＭＬ在近距离地段数值偏低,在远距离地段偏高,随震中距出现系统偏差。本文以里克特（１９３５）零震级地震定义为震级水平控制原则,应用了辽,吉,黑,冀四省地震台网的观测资料,制定出东北地区近震震级起算函数系统。     

对1989年以来华北北部6级左右地震前山西测震及前兆异常的总结

从山西测震,前兆资料入手,在核实异常的基础上,总结了１９８９年以来华北北部４次６级左右地震前的异常,对各次地震前测震和前兆的异常类型,形态,空间分布等特征进行了综合分析并对这些观测项目的映时震能力进行了评价。