新型GPS探空仪与业务GTS1 2探空仪对比分析

2012年8月,中国气象局气象探测中心在广东阳江开展自动探空系统新型GPS探空仪比对试验,对比分析其技术改进后的准确性,试验结果表明：温度测量性明显优于GTS1 2型探空仪。湿度测量结果与RS92型探空仪一致性较好,系统误差在15%RH内,标准偏差在12%RH内。气压系统误差全量程在±10 hPa内,标准偏差在08 hPa内。位势高度系统误差在±20 gpm以内,标准偏差在70 gpm内。GPS定位测风性能优于GTS1 2型探空仪配合L波段二次测风雷达测风性能结果。     

A brief introduction to BNU-HESM1.0 and its earth surface temperature simulations

Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper,a new human–earth system model,BNUHESM1.0,constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model,is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating the global CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that,compared to observation,BNU-HESM1.0underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965–2005,due to the uncertainty in the economic components. However,the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation,resulting from the overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within the range of present earth system uncertainty,so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM1.0 that needs to be improved through further study. However,the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigate the complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that prove valuable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate.     

1951-2013年浙江热量资源变化研究

基于1951—2013年浙江71个常规气象站逐日气温资料和1971—2013年土温资料,采用M-K检验、气候倾向率等气候统计诊断方法,分析浙江地区气温、地温、农业界限温度等热量资源要素的变化规律及气候变化下浙江热量资源区划的年代际变化特征,以期为充分利用气候资源、优化农业结构和作物引种提供科学依据。研究结果表明：1）1951—2013年浙江四季和年平均气温变化幅度分别为0.24 ℃·10a-1(P0.01)、0.10 ℃·10a-1(P0.05)、0.14 ℃·10a-1(P0.01)、0.14 ℃·10a-1(P0.05)和0.18 ℃·10a-1(P0.05),突变起始年分别为1997、2005、2002、1993和1999年;2）1951—2013年浙江平均极端最高、最低气温的气候倾向率分别为0.10 ℃·10a-1(P0.01)和0.30 ℃·10a-1(P0.10);3）土温与农业密切相关,0—20 cm土温与日平均温度通过0.01显著性相关;4）气候变暖导致浙江农业界限温度(0 ℃、5 ℃、10 ℃、15 ℃、20 ℃)初日提前、终日延后、持续天数和积温增加,农业界限温度初日、终日、持续天数和积温的气候倾向率平均值分别为-3.2～-1.5 d·10a-1、0.3～1.6 d·10a-1、2.8～4.1 d·10a-1、95.7～107.3 ℃·d·10a-1;5）1951—2013年浙江初霜延迟、终霜提前、无霜期增加,初霜、终霜和无霜期气候倾向率平均为-3.62 d·10a-1、1.32 d·10a-1和4.97 d·10a-1;6）气候变暖导致浙江热量资源区划变化显著,2001—2010年淳安建德浦江义乌诸暨嵊州天台三门线以南地区≥10 ℃积温超过5600 ℃·d。     

Why are halo coronal mass ejections faster?

Halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been to be significantly faster than normal CMEs, which is a long-standing puzzle. In order to solve the puzzle, we first investigate the observed properties of 31 limb CMEs that clearly display loopshaped frontal loops. The observational results show a strong tendency that slower CMEs are weaker in white-light intensity. Then, we perform a Monte Carlo simulation of 20000 artificial limb CMEs that have an average velocity of ～523km s -1. The Thomson scattering of thes...     

水脉泽寄主活动星系核的吸积率(英文)

水超脉泽辐射( 各向同性光度超过 10 个太阳光度) 通常在星系中心最内部的核区( 小于几个秒差距) 被发现,因而活动星系核被认为是其唯一的能量源。同其它没有检测到水脉泽辐射的活动星系核相比,水脉泽寄主活动星系核可能隐含着某种或某些特殊性质。基于此我们调研了已经公开发表的所有水脉泽源的 X 射线观测情况,得到了一个有 X 射线观测研究结果的子样本( 39 个源) 。由它们的 X 射线光度以及估算的黑洞质量,导出了它们的无量纲吸积率( logL2-10keV /LEdd,其中 L2-10keV和 LEdd分别是 2 - 10keV 的固有光度和爱丁顿光度) ; 与距离范围相当的、没有检测到水脉泽的活动星系核样本相比,发现脉泽寄主活动星系核有较高的吸积率。进一步分析比较这两个活动星系核样本的质量吸积率,也发现类似的趋势。此外,为了探索吸积率和水脉泽辐射间可能的内在联系,我们对它们的脉泽光度和吸积率进行了统计分析,然而结果显示二者之间没有明显的相关性。     

Habitable zones and UV habitable zones around host stars

Ultraviolet radiation is a double-edged sword to life. If it is too strong, the terrestrial biological systems will be damaged. And if it is too weak, the synthesis of many biochemical compounds cannot go along. We try to obtain the continuous ultraviolet habitable zones, and compare the ultraviolet habitable zones with the habitable zones of host stars. Using the boundary ultraviolet radiation of ultraviolet habitable zone, we calculate the ultraviolet habitable zones of host stars with masses from 0.08 to 4.00 M _⊙. For the host stars with effective temperatures lower than 4,600 K, the ultraviolet habitable zones are closer than the habitable zones. For the host stars with effective temperatures higher than 7,137 K, the ultraviolet habitable zones are farther than the habitable zones. For a hot subdwarf as a host star, the distance of the ultraviolet habitable zone is about ten times more than that of the habitable zone, which is not suitable for the existence of life.     

Scientific Objectives of China-Russia Joint Mars Exploration Program YH-1

Compared with other planets, Mars is a planet most similar with the earth and most possible to find the extraterrestrial life on it, and therefore especially concerned about by human beings. In recent years, some countries have launched Mars probes and announced their manned Mars exploration programs. China has become the fifth country in the world to launch independently artificial satellites, and the third country able to carry out an independent manned space program. However, China is just at the beginning of deep space explorations. In 2007, China and Russia signed an agreement on a joint Mars exploration program by sending a Chinese micro-satellite Yinghuo-1 (YH-1) to the Mars orbit. Once YH-1 enters its orbit, it will carry out its own exploration, as well as the joint exploration with the Russian Phobos-Grunt probe. This paper summarizes the scientific background and objectives of YH-1 and describes briefly its payloads for realizing these scientific objectives. In addition, the main exploration tasks of YH-1 and a preliminary prospect on its exploration results are also given.     

虹鳟(Oncorhynchus mykiss)选育群体的血清类固醇激素周年变化

采用放射性免疫(RIA)和组织学切片技术,系统地研究了虹鳟(Oncorhynchus mykiss)选育群体的血清性类固醇激素周年变化与性腺发育特点的关系,以及血清中性类固醇激素雌二醇(E2)和睾酮(T)在雌雄亲本中的周年变化规律和生理作用。结果表明,虹鳟性腺发育可划分为6期。雌鱼血清中E2在10月(V期性腺)达到峰值,T浓度在11月达到峰值,而进入繁殖期后(11—12月)E2开始下降。雄鱼血清T浓度在11月达到最大值,E2在6月份达到峰值,在11月之后T开始下降。在各月份,雌鱼E2浓度水平远高于雄鱼,而雄鱼T浓度个别月份低于雌鱼。这些研究揭示出,测定血清性类固醇激素浓度水平可用于准确判断鱼类的生殖状态,且可为虹鳟家系选育出早熟亲本群体提供重要技术依据。     

我国抗震防灾研究的发展及其作用

我国是一个地震灾害严重的国家之一。为抵御地震对人民生命财产和国家经济的破坏,使得抗震防灾研究显得尤为必要。本文主要从工程角度,简要介绍了我国抗震防灾研究的历史、现状、前沿问题及未来发展,并且阐述了抗震防灾研究在我国社会主义经济建设中的重要性。