Modelling shallow landslide susceptibility: a new approach in logistic regression by using favourability assessment

A new method for estimating shallow landslide susceptibility by combining Geographical Information System (GIS), nonparametric kernel density estimation and logistic regression is described. Specifically, a logistic regression is applied to predict the spatial distribution by estimating the probability of occurrence of a landslide in a 16 km² area. For this purpose, a GIS is employed to gather the relevant sample information connected with the landslides. The advantages of pre-processing the explanatory variables by nonparametric density estimation (for continuous variables) and a reclassification (for categorical/discrete ones) are discussed. The pre-processing leads to new explanatory variables, namely, some functions which measure the favourability of occurrence of a landslide. The resulting model correctly classifies 98.55% of the inventaried landslides and 89.80% of the landscape surface without instabilities. New data about recent shallow landslides were collected in order to validate the model, and 92.20% of them are also correctly classified. The results support the methodology and the extrapolation of the model to the whole study area (278 km²) in order to obtain susceptibility maps.     

The next layer: Towards open pedagogy in geospatial education

Open-source software and open data are becoming increasingly popular in the teaching and learning of geographic information science. The cost savings that are derived from using free software over proprietary software are one driving factor, yet the move from “closed” to “open” represents much more than financial austerity—it signifies a broader shift in educational philosophy. This article documents the gradual transition of an introductory undergraduate course in geographic information systems from an entirely closed course to one that has become increasingly open. Having completely adopted the first three layers of open—software, data, and educational resources—the course is now turning toward the next layer: embracing the philosophy of open pedagogy.     

A Velocity Dealiasing Scheme for C-band Weather Radar Systems简

A dealiasing algorithm for radar radial velocity observed by C-band Doppler radars is presented as an extension of an existing S-band dealiasing algorithm. This has operational significance in that many portable and many commercial broadcast radars, as well as approximately one half of the Chinese weather radar network （CINRAD）, are C-band radars. With a wavelength of about 5 cm, the Nyquist interval of C-band radars is just about one half that of S-band radars （wavelength of about 10 cm） and thus has more velocity folding. The proposed algorithm includes seven modules to remove noisy data, find the starting radials, dealias velocities, and apply least squares error checking in both the radial and azimuth directions. The proposed velocity dealiasing method was applied to one widespread rain case and three strong convective cases from radars operating in China. It was found that, on average, 92.95% of the aliased radial velocity data could be correctly de-aliased by the algorithm, resulting in 96.65% of the data being valid.     

Estimation of specific yields of individual litho-units in a terrain with multiple litho-units: A water balance approach

In a terrain with more than one litho-unit, the traditional water balance approach provides a single spatially averaged specific yield. A methodology is proposed here, which can be applied to estimate specific yields of individual litho-units in such terrains. This approach is demonstrated here considering two watersheds, which are covered partly by limestone and partly by sandstone. Watershed wise specific yields were estimated using a traditional water balance method. The specific yields thus obtained are the volume-weighted averages of the specific yields of the individual litho-units in the watersheds. Based on the volumes of aquifers desaturated and the watershed wise specific yield values, a set of two linear equations in two variables was formulated. These linear equations were solved to get the specific yields of the individual litho-units. Specific yields of sandstone (Chandarpur Group) and limestone (Charmuria Formation) units in the study area were thus estimated to be 0.004 and 0.037 respectively.     

Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Secular variations in the spectrum of solar p-modes

The solar p-mode spectrum of very low I is measured with high accuracy for a long enough period of time so as to allow the search for solar cycle variations. In this paper solar cycle variations of the frequency and energy of the modes are confirmed. Moreover, a slight variation,within errors, of its rotational splitting with the solar cycle, is suggested.     

Modelling the effects of land‐use change on water and salt delivery from a catchment affected by dryland salinity in south‐east Australia

A comprehensive framework for the assessment of water and salt balance for large catchments affected by dryland salinity is applied to the Boorowa River catchment (1550 km²), located in south‐eastern Australia. The framework comprised two models, each focusing on a different aspect and operating on a different scale. A quasi‐physical semi‐distributed model CATSALT was used to estimate runoff and salt fluxes from different source areas within the catchment. The effects of land use, climate, topography, soils and geology are included. A groundwater model FLOWTUBE was used to estimate the long‐term effects of land‐use change on groundwater discharge. Unlike conventional salinity studies that focus on groundwater alone, this study makes use of a new approach to explore surface and groundwater interactions with salt stores and the stream. Land‐use change scenarios based on increased perennial pasture and tree‐cover content of the vegetation, aimed at high leakage and saline discharge areas, are investigated. Likely downstream impacts of the reduction in flow and salt export are estimated. The water balance model was able to simulate both the daily observed stream flow and salt load at the catchment outlet for high and low flow conditions satisfactorily. Mean leakage rate of about 23·2 mm year^?1 under current land use for the Boorowa catchment was estimated. The corresponding mean runoff and salt export from the catchment were 89 382 ML year^?1 and 38 938 t year^?1, respectively. Investigation of various land‐use change scenarios indicates that changing annual pastures and cropping areas to perennial pastures is not likely to result in substantial improvement of water quality in the Boorowa River. A land‐use change of about 20% tree‐cover, specifically targeting high recharge and the saline discharge areas, would be needed to decrease stream salinity by 150 µS cm^?1 from its current level. Stream salinity reductions of about 20 µS cm^?1 in the main Lachlan River downstream of the confluence of the Boorowa River is predicted. The FLOWTUBE modelling within the Boorowa River catchment indicated that discharge areas under increased recharge conditions could re‐equilibrate in around 20 years for the catchment, and around 15 years for individual hillslopes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Observations of GRS 1915+105 from the USA Experiment on ARGOS

We present first results from a monitoring campaign of GRS 1915+105 undertaken with the USA X-ray timing experiment on the ARGOS satellite. A variety of behaviour has been observed, ranging from low, steady X-ray emission to rapid quasi-periodic flaring on timescales of approximately 10–120 seconds.