Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to channel erosion uncertainty during extreme flooding

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilize the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry and channel long‐profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D–2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD‐FP) of the ~1 : 2000 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of simulated scenarios of channel erosional changes were constructed on the basis of a simple velocity‐based model of critical entrainment. A Monte‐Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of this channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected an approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion that enveloped observed erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long‐profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude of event modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead, morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel‐bed rivers such as the one used in this research. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Emerging Asias: Transnational Forces,Developmental States,and “Asian Values”

Discussions of East Asian developmental states and Asian values discourse have been deformed by national-territorial frameworks that limit scholars' ability to highlight transnational phenomena. Such limits can be overcome by adopting a “Pacificist” perspective, one that highlights the transnational collaborative efforts of Pacific ruling class members, from both Asia and the United States. Such a Pacificist approach has the virtue of highlighting phenomena of transnational class formation that help account for the emergence of both developmental states in East Asia and Asian values discourse, and it also suggested the importance of attending to other kinds of emerging actors in Asian development politics, such as labor and democracy movements.     

Hydrogeology of a montane headwater groundwater system downgradient of a coal-mine waste rock dump: Elk Valley,British Columbia,Canada

Steelmaking-coal waste rock placed in mountain catchments in the Elk Valley, British Columbia, Canada, drain constituents of interest (CIs) to surface water downgradient of the waste rock dumps. The role of groundwater in transporting CIs in the headwaters of mountain catchments is not well understood. This study characterizes the physical hydrogeology of a portion of a 10-km² headwater catchment (West Line Creek) downgradient of a 2.7-km² waste rock dump placed over a natural headwater valley-bottom groundwater system. The study site was instrumented with 13 monitoring wells. Drill core samples were collected to determine subsurface lithology and geotechnical properties. The groundwater system was characterized using field testing and water-level monitoring. The valley-bottom sediments were composed of unconsolidated glacial and meltwater successions (<64 m thick) deposited as a series of cut and fill structures overlying shale bedrock. An unconfined basal alluvial aquifer located above fractured bedrock was identified as the primary conduit for groundwater flow toward Line Creek (650 m from the toe of the dump). Discharge through the basal alluvial aquifer was estimated using the geometric mean hydraulic conductivity (±1 standard deviation). These calculations suggest groundwater discharge could account for approximately 15% (ranging from 2 to 60%) of the total water discharged from the watershed. The residence time from the base of the waste rock dump to Line Creek was estimated at <3 years. The groundwater system was defined as a snowmelt (i.e., nival) regime dominated by direct recharge (percolation of precipitation) across the catchment.     

Rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides considering previous soil moisture conditions (Asturias,NW Spain)

Given its geological and climatic conditions and its rugged orography, Asturias is one of the most landslide prone areas in the North of Spain. Most of the landslides occur during intense rainfall episodes. Thus, precipitation is considered the main triggering factor in the study area, reaching average annual values of 960 mm. Two main precipitation patterns are frequent: (i) long-lasting periods of moderate rainfall during autumn and winter and (ii) heavy short rainfall episodes during spring and early summer. In the present work, soil moisture conditions in the locations of 84 landslides are analysed during two rainfall episodes, which represent the most common precipitation patterns: October–November 2008 and June 2010. Empirical data allowed the definition of available water capacity percentages of 99–100% as critical soil moisture conditions for the landslide triggering. Intensity-duration rainfall thresholds were calculated for each episode, considering the periods with sustained high soil moisture levels before the occurrence of each analysed landslide event. For this purpose, data from daily water balance models and weather stations were used. An inverse relationship between the duration of the precipitation and its intensity, consistent with published intensity-duration thresholds, was observed, showing relevant seasonal differences.     

On the precision and accuracy of IGS orbits

In order to explore the precision and accuracy of International GNSS Service (IGS) orbits, we difference geocentric satellite positions midway between successive daily Final orbits for the period starting 5 November 2006, when the IGS switched its method of antenna calibration, through 31 December 2007. This yields a time series of orbit repeatabilities analogous to the classical geodetic test for position determinations. If we compare our average positional discontinuities to the official IGS accuracy codes, root-sum-squared (RSS) for each pair of days, we find the discontinuities are not well correlated with the predicted performance values. If instead the IGS weighted root-mean-square (WRMS) values from the Final combination long-arc analyses are taken as the measure of IGS accuracy, we find the position differences and long-arc values are correlated, but the long-arc values are exaggerated, particularly around eclipses, despite the fact that our day-boundary position differences apply to a single epoch each day and the long-arc analyses consider variations over a week. Our method is not well suited to probe the extent to which systematic effects dominate over random orbit errors, as indicated by satellite laser ranging residuals, but eclipsing satellites often display the most problematic behavior. A better metric than the current IGS orbit accuracy codes would probably be one based on the orbit discontinuities between successive days.     

Groundwater-level response to land-use change and the implications for salinity management in the West Moorabool River catchment, Victoria, Australia

The connection between the removal of native vegetation, rising water tables and increasing stream salinity has been established for many catchments across Australia. However, the West Moorabool River in south west Victoria is an example of a catchment where there has been little discernable effect on groundwater levels following land clearing. Over the past 150 years, a significant portion of the catchment has been cleared of dense forest for agricultural development. Historic standing water-level records from 1870–1871 and 1881 are compared with contemporary measurements (1970s to 2007) recorded in the government bore databases. The data show that the earliest recorded groundwater levels are well within the seasonal range of values observed today. By integrating geology and hydrogeology with historical observations of groundwater levels, climate data and land use, the contemporary field observations of stream salinity are linked to the changed water use and shift in rainfall. In contrast to the normally accepted axiom, reafforestation as a management strategy to mitigate the rising salinity in the West Moorabool River catchment would seem inappropriate.     

The last deglaciation in the Picos de Europa National Park (Cantabrian Mountains,northern Spain)

A sedimentological and geochemical study of the Lago Enol sequence (Cantabrian Mountains, northern Spain), together with detailed geomorphological mapping, provides a first record of glacier evolution and climate change over the last 40 ka in the Picos de Europa National Park. The Enol glacier retreated from its maximum extent prior to 40 ka BP as demonstrated by the onset of proglacial lacustrine sedimentation in two glaciated depressions: the Comella hollow to the north (before 40 ka BP) and the Lago Enol (before 38 ka BP). These results support previous evidence that the maximum extent of southern European glaciers occurred earlier than in northern Europe. Alternation of homogeneous and laminated proglacial sediments during the glacier retreat illustrate a dynamic glacial evolution during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 (40–26 ka BP). A slight warming is detected at 26 ka ago with the change from proglacial sediments (in a lake located in contact to the glacier) to glaciolacustrine sedimentation (in a non‐contact or distal lake). Finally, the onset of organic‐rich sediments took place at 18 ka ago. This last transition occurred in two phases, similarly to the North Atlantic Last Termination, suggesting a link between North Atlantic Deep Water formation oscillations and palaeohydrological variability in the Cantabrian Mountains. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.