高温炉燃烧-红外吸收法测定重铀酸盐中硫质量分数

建立了高温燃烧红外碳硫仪测定重铀酸盐中硫质量分数的分析方法。样品以五氧化二钒为助熔剂,在高温炉燃烧后,用红外吸收测定重铀酸盐中的硫,样品分析重现性好,精密度高,相对标准偏差为0.26%;样品加标回收率在97.1%~103%之间。     

DMC＋4小卫星在国际灾害监测中的应用与评价

针对国际灾害监测星座应用技术和中国各种自然灾害的现状,着重研究了DMC(DisasterMonitoringConstellation)星座应用技术和DMC 4小卫星的数据特点,研究了利用小卫星星座对防灾、抗灾救灾的突出作用,研究了小卫星地面系统集成技术和星地一体化运营、管理和控制体系,以便进一步推动国内小卫星技术、遥感应用技术、卫星星座技术、天地一体化运管控技术和机制创新的发展。促进中国灾害监测星座的研制,最终实现对各种自然灾害的实时、动态监测。     

一次强飑线的中分析

本文对一次强飑线过程进行分析,指出高空“阶梯槽”的出现是这次飑线过程大尺度环流背景的重要特征。在此背景下,苏北和山东广大地区,有一支西南低空急流输送水汽和热量,大气层结趋于不稳定,为鼬线发展提供了不稳定能量,而高空疏散槽为不稳定能释放的一种触发机构。在飑线过境前,大气的层结在800毫巴附近的强下沉逆温,对不稳定能的储存和积累有重要意义。 这次飑线发展如此之强,除一般所说的一些条件之外,同飑线内部对流云体的合并以及与其它天气系统的碰头有密切关系;另外,中低空之间的强垂直风切变也有特殊作用。     

ANALYSIS OF LOCATION CONDITIONS OF FINANCIAL CENTRES IN CHINA

First of all, the necessity of establishing financial centres is expounded. The establishment of financial centres has a lot of benefits to the world economic development, China's economy and the occupied cities. The location conditions of financial centres may be summarized as follows: the location of trade centre, the factors of geographical position, the circumstances of finance, etc.. We consider that the first batch of financial centres in China should be established in the eastern cities of China. So 9 eastern cities in China are chosen as the spare financial centres. According to the location conditions of financial centres, 12 indices are chosen and the method of synthetic weighted average is used to find the best locations of financial centres. The conclusions are that the grade A financial centres should be in Shanghai and the grade B should be in Tianjin and Guangzhou.     

年最大值抽样估算的暴雨频率设计值的低估问题探讨

由年最大值抽样（AMS）和年超大值抽样（AES）的基本理论及重现期（RP）的定义可知,AMS并不符合以“事件”为基础的重现期的定义.以美国西南半干旱区1438个雨量站和太湖流域96个雨量站的降雨资料为例,通过经验频率与超过概率的比较,发现AMS估算的暴雨频率设计值偏小,尤其是对常遇频率降雨设计值的影响更加显著.美国的降雨量资料站点多、系列长,实际资料验证与理论分析一致.通过对太湖流域AMS资料的分布形态进行分析的结果表明：太湖流域的站点不多,资料长度不够,且大部分站点在雨量大值区数据稀少,使得频率直方图不连续,是造成我国太湖流域的资料验证效果不理想的可能原因.     

基于条分模式的边坡可靠度近似计算方法

通过对边坡稳定分析方法中的条分理论和响应面法的研究,针对边坡可靠性计算往往没有明确的解析表达式,以及稳定性系数计算方法和响应面法（RSM）的特点,将响应面法中的有限元数值模拟以条分模式中的稳定性系数隐式方程的迭代计算方法代替,建立了条分模式下的边坡可靠性计算的极限状态方程,从而形成了一种新的边坡稳定可靠性响应面分析方法。本文提出的改进的响应面法原理简单,计算效率较高并具有一定的精度,适用于对边坡可靠度的近似计算。     

三峡库区范家坪滑坡地表形变InSAR监测与综合分析

位于湖北省秭归县的范家坪滑坡是长江三峡库区干流上的大型岩质滑坡之一。阐述了高分辨率合成孔径雷达干涉测量技术(InSAR)监测滑坡地表形变的工作方法与技术体系,采用22景3m空间分辨率的TerraSAR-X数据,辅以人工反射体布设和GPS测量,对范家坪滑坡变形进行监测,发现滑坡处在缓慢匀速变形状态,其谭家河滑坡体的形变比木鱼包滑坡体更为强烈,形变最大处的雷达视线向形变速率达到300mm/a。通过综合分析滑坡区2012年大气降雨和长江水位资料,发现年度内范家坪滑坡变形受水位变化和大气降雨影响微弱。     

一种顾及各向异性的数字水深模型插值方法

提出了一种顾及各向异性的数字水深模型插值方法,通过局部水深信息解析海底地形的微地貌结构特征,构建了顾及距离和方向的水深插值模型。实验证明,所提方法较距离反比例平方加权法能更多地保留地形信息,同时具有更高的插值精度和插值稳定性。     

成烃贡献值及其在烃源岩评价中的应用

烃源岩评价是油气勘探的关键工作之一。为了更加合理、直观和有效地评价烃源岩,以辽东湾地区为例,通过对烃源岩常规评价参数的分析,提出了考虑有机质丰度、类型和热演化程度的综合指标——成烃贡献值,并利用该指标对辽东湾地区烃源岩进行了评价。从个体评价和整体评价两方面,与常规评价方法的结论进行对比研究。结果表明,辽东湾地区辽中凹陷沙河街组烃源岩对成烃的贡献比东营组大,中洼烃源岩比北洼好。由此可见,用成烃贡献值评价烃源岩,不仅可以达到常规评价的要求,而且比常规方法更加合理和直观。     

Understanding the implications of the EU-LULUCF regulation for the wood supply from EU forests to the EU

Background

In June 2018, the European Parliament and Council of the European Union adopted a legislative regulation for incorporating greenhouse gas emissions and removals from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (EU-LULUCF) under its 2030 Climate and Energy Framework. The LULUCF regulation aim to incentivise EU Member States to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and increase removals in the LULUCF sector. The regulation, however, does not set a target for increasing the LULUCF carbon sink, but rather includes a ‘no net debit’ target for LULUCF (Forests and Agricultural soils). For Managed Forest Land (MFL) an accounting framework with capped credits for additional mitigation against a set forest reference level (FRL) was agreed for 2021–2030. The FRL gives the projected future carbon sink in the two compliance periods 2021–2025 and 2026–2030 under “continuation of forest management practices as they were in the reference period 2000–2009”. This FRL was disputed by some Member States as it was perceived to put a limit on their future wood harvesting from MFL. Here we simulated with the EFISCEN European forest model the “continuation of forest management practices” and determined the corresponding wood harvest for 26 EU countries under progressing age classes.

Results

The simulations showed that under “continuation of forest management practices” the harvest (wood removals) in the 26 EU countries as a whole can increase from 420 million m³/year in 2000–2009 to 560 million m³/year in 2050 due to progressing age classes. This implies there is a possibility to increase absolute wood harvests without creating debits compared to the forest reference level. However, the manner in which ‘continuation of forest management’ developed with a progressing age class development over time, meant that in some countries the future harvesting exceeded 90% of the increment. Since this generally is considered to be unsustainable we additionally set a harvesting cut-off as max 90% of increment to be harvested for each individual country as a possible interpretation of sustainability criteria that are included in the regulation. Using this additional limit the projected harvest will only increase to 493 million m³/year.

Conclusions

The worry from Member States (MS) that the FRL will prevent any additional harvesting seems unwarranted. Due to differences between Member States concerning the state of their forest resources, the FRL as a baseline for harvesting works out very differently for the different Member States. The FRL may have other unforeseen consequences which we discuss. Under all scenarios the living forest biomass sink shows a decline. This can be counteracted through incentivising measures under Climate Smart Forestry.