扰动变量在强对流天气分析和模式评估中的应用——以苏北里下河地区引发龙卷的扰动系统为例

2016年6月23日14:00—15:00时,江苏省盐城市阜宁县发生了EF-4级有记录以来的强龙卷风过程,造成了当地30 km长,1.7 km宽的严重气象灾害。受局地环境影响,邻近地区在近50年中发生了大于10人次死亡事件的龙卷风11次,其中6次发生于1979年以后。文章首先是:(1)把6次事件日的再分析变量场分解成瞬时气候和扰动两个部分,发现6次事件都与近地面层出现的负高度扰动轴线和扰动冷暖气团的对峙有关,龙卷发生在暖气团一侧;(2)用模式初始场分解的扰动变量和扰动物理量评估欧美模式对产生阜宁龙卷扰动系统的预报能力。后者的结果也发现,当日14时925 hPa高度扰动槽和850 hPa扰动风辐合线作为环境扰动系统,以及湿涡度扰动和湿散度扰动等环境扰动指标量能够突出地表达有利于龙卷风发生的环境条件。欧洲全球模式能够提前42 h稳定预报出后来扰动槽和环境扰动指标量的位置,美国全球模式也可以提前18 h预报出这样的扰动特征。这些扰动变量和扰动指标量能够快速地帮助预报员判断有可能发生强对流天气的大致时空区域和特征。     

Plant responses to global change: next generation biogeography

Global change has become a major ecological concern that has the potential to dramatically alter plant distributions and assemblages worldwide. The specific response of plants to global change will depend on their ability to move, evolve, or adjust through phenotypic plasticity. Advances in biogeographic research are on the verge of a giant leap forward if we can take advantage of emerging tools in genetics and genomics. In this review, we appraise how new, post-Sanger, high-throughput sequencing and associated technologies can be used by next generation biogeographers to assess plant responses to global change. First, we briefly review the recent advances in genome sequencing and available approaches of genomic analysis. Secondly, we discuss the three main plant responses to global change: migration, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity. This review is intended to spark the interest of biogeographers who do not traditionally use genetics but could benefit from including genetic and genomic tools into their research. Our goal is to illustrate that their use can contribute to new perspective and add an additional level of resolution into future biogeographic research.     

Polarimetry of the eclipsing polar RX J0929.1−2404

We report polarimetric, spectropolarimetric and photometric observations of the eclipsing ROSAT cataclysmic variable RX J0929.1−2404, which confirm that the system is a new polar (AM Herculis system). This brings the number of eclipsing polars to nine, with RX J0929.1−2404 being only the third such system above the period gap. Circular polarization variations from ∼−20 to 10 per cent are seen over the 3.39-h orbital period, with a minimum around the time of eclipse. The photopolarimetric data were modelled using arc-shaped cyclotron emission regions in a centred dipole geometry. Results imply that RX J0929.1−2404 is a 'two-pole' system, with one emission region partially visible at all orbital phases. Spectropolarimetry observations show some evidence for the presence of cyclotron humps in the continuum, with spacings consistent with a magnetic field strength of ∼20 MG. Photometry of the eclipses provides information on the size of the emission region, which is consistent with a hotspot on the surface of the white dwarf. The eclipse duration implies an inclination in the range 70°≲ i ≲78°.     

Almost analytic models of ultramagnetized neutron star envelopes

Recent ROSAT measurements show that the X-ray emission from isolated neutron stars is modulated at the stellar rotation period. To interpret these measurements, one needs precise calculations of the heat transfer through the thin insulating envelopes of neutron stars. We present nearly analytic models of the thermal structure of the envelopes of ultramagnetized neutron stars. Specifically, we examine the limit in which only the ground Landau level is filled. We use the models to estimate the amplitude of modulation expected from non-uniformities in the surface temperatures of strongly magnetized neutron stars. In addition, we estimate cooling rates for stars with fields B  ∼ 10¹⁵ − 10¹⁶ G, which are relevant to models that invoke 'magnetars' to account for soft γ-ray emission from some repeating sources.     

Selection effects and tests of repetition (clustering) in the BATSE 1B catalog

A repeater statistic (derived from the two-point angular correlation function and accounting for location errors) is used to identify constraints on the rate of burst repetition from the BATSE 1B catalog. Because of the anisotropic sky exposure, repeating sources should create additional effects in the large-scale distribution of close burst pairs.National Research Council Fellow at NASA/MSFC     

Upper Yellowstone River Flow and Teleconnections with Pacific Basin Climate Variability during the Past Three Centuries

Climate variability, coupled with increasing demand is raising concerns about the sustainability of water resources in the western United States. Tree-ring reconstructions of stream flow that extend the observational record by several centuries provide critical information on the short-term variability and multi-decadal trends in water resources. In this study, precipitation sensitive Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menzeisii) tree ringrecords are used to reconstruct annual flow of the Yellowstone River back to A.D. 1706. Linkages between precipitation in the Greater Yellowstone Region and climate variability in the Pacific basin were incorporated into our model by including indices Pacific Ocean interannual and decadal-scale climatic variability, namely the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation. The reconstruction indicates that 20th century streamflow is not representative of flow during the previous two centuries. With the exception of the 1930s, streamflow during the 20th century exceeded average flows during the previous 200 years. The drought of the 1930s resulted in the lowest flows during the last three centuries, however, this probably does not represent a worst-case scenario for the Yellowstone as other climate reconstructions indicate more extreme droughts prior to the 18th century.     

The Impact of Climate Change on Wildfire Severity: A Regional Forecast for Northern California

We estimated the impact of climatic change on wildland fire and suppression effectiveness in northern California by linking general circulation model output to local weather and fire records and projecting fire outcomes with an initial-attack suppression model. The warmer and windier conditions corresponding to a 2 × CO₂ climate scenario produced fires that burned more intensely and spread faster in most locations. Despite enhancement of fire suppression efforts, the number of escaped fires (those exceeding initial containment limits) increased 51% in the south San Francisco Bay area, 125% in the Sierra Nevada, and did not change on the north coast. Changes in area burned by contained fires were 41%, 41% and –8%, respectively. When interpolated to most of northern California's wildlands, these results translate to an average annual increase of 114 escapes (a doubling of the current frequency) and an additional 5,000 hectares (a 50% increase) burned by contained fires. On average, the fire return intervals in grass and brush vegetation types were cut in half. The estimates reported represent a minimum expected change, or best-case forecast. In addition to the increased suppression costs and economic damages, changes in fire severity of this magnitude would have widespread impacts on vegetation distribution, forest condition, and carbon storage, and greatly increase the risk to property, natural resources and human life.     

Detrital thermochronologic record of burial heating and sediment recycling in the Magallanes foreland basin,Patagonian Andes

The Patagonian Magallanes retroarc foreland basin affords an excellent case study of sediment burial recycling within a thrust belt setting. We report combined detrital zircon U–Pb geochronology and (U–Th)/He thermochronology data and thermal modelling results that confirm delivery of both rapidly cooled, first‐cycle volcanogenic sediments from the Patagonian magmatic arc and recycled sediment from deeply buried and exhumed Cretaceous foredeep strata to the Cenozoic depocentre of the Patagonian Magallanes basin. We have quantified the magnitude of Eocene heating with thermal models that simultaneously forward model detrital zircon (U–Th)/He dates for best‐fit thermal histories. Our results indicate that 54–45 Ma burial of the Maastrichtian Dorotea Formation produced 164–180 °C conditions and heating to within the zircon He partial retention zone. Such deep burial is unusual for Andean foreland basins and may have resulted from combined effects of high basal heat flow and high sediment accumulation within a rapidly subsiding foredeep that was floored by basement weakened by previous Late Jurassic rifting. In this interpretation, Cenozoic thrust‐related deformation deeply eroded the Dorotea Formation from ca. 5 km burial depths and may be responsible for the development of a basin‐wide Palaeogene unconformity. Results from the Cenozoic Río Turbio and Santa Cruz formations confirm that they contain both Cenozoic first‐cycle zircon from the Patagonian magmatic arc and highly outgassed zircon recycled from older basin strata that experienced burial histories similar to those of the Dorotea Formation.     

Exploring the Effects of Shoreline Development on Fringing Salt Marshes Using Nekton,Benthic Invertebrate,and Vegetation Metrics

Fringing marshes are important but often overlooked components of estuarine systems. Due to their relatively small size and large edge to area ratio, they are particularly vulnerable to impacts from adjacent upland development. Because current shoreland zoning policies aim to limit activities in upland buffer zones directly next to coastal habitats, we tested for relationships between the extent of development in a 100-m buffer adjacent to fringing salt marshes and the structure of marsh plants, benthic invertebrates, and nekton communities. We also wanted to determine useful metrics for monitoring fringing marshes that are exposed to shoreline development. We sampled 18 fringing salt marshes in two estuaries along the coast of southern Maine. The percent of shoreline developed in 100-m buffers around each site ranged from 0 to 91 %. Several variables correlated with the percent of shoreline developed, including one plant diversity metric (Evenness), two nekton metrics (Fundulus heteroclitus %biomass and Carcinus maenas %biomass), and several benthic invertebrate metrics (nematode and insect/dipteran larvae densities in the high marsh zone) (p?<?0.05). Carcinus maenas, a recent invader to the area, comprised 30–97 % of the nekton biomass collected at the 18 sites and was inversely correlated with Fundulus %biomass. None of these biotic metrics correlated with the other abiotic marsh attributes we measured, including porewater salinity, marsh site width, and distance of the site to the mouth of the river. In all, between 25 and 48 % of the variance in the individual metrics we identified was accounted for by the extent of development in the 100-m buffer zone. Results from this study add to our understanding of fringing salt marshes and the impacts of shoreline development to these habitats and point to metrics that may be useful in monitoring these impacts.     

An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai

Natural Hazards - Climate change leads to sea level rise worldwide, as well as increases in the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs). Storm surge induced by TC’s, together with...