Evaluating Lower Computational Burden Approaches for Calibration of Large Environmental Models

Realistic environmental models used for decision making typically require a highly parameterized approach. Calibration of such models is computationally intensive because widely used parameter estimation approaches require individual forward runs for each parameter adjusted. These runs construct a parameter-to-observation sensitivity, or Jacobian, matrix used to develop candidate parameter upgrades. Parameter estimation algorithms are also commonly adversely affected by numerical noise in the calculated sensitivities within the Jacobian matrix, which can result in unnecessary parameter estimation iterations and less model-to-measurement fit. Ideally, approaches to reduce the computational burden of parameter estimation will also increase the signal-to-noise ratio related to observations influential to the parameter estimation even as the number of forward runs decrease. In this work a simultaneous increments, an iterative ensemble smoother (IES), and a randomized Jacobian approach were compared to a traditional approach that uses a full Jacobian matrix. All approaches were applied to the same model developed for decision making in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, USA. Both the IES and randomized Jacobian approach achieved a desirable fit and similar parameter fields in many fewer forward runs than the traditional approach; in both cases the fit was obtained in fewer runs than the number of adjustable parameters. The simultaneous increments approach did not perform as well as the other methods due to inability to overcome suboptimal dropping of parameter sensitivities. This work indicates that use of highly efficient algorithms can greatly speed parameter estimation, which in turn increases calibration vetting and utility of realistic models used for decision making.     

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Winter–Spring Oxygen Depletion in Chesapeake Bay Bottom Water

Although seasonal hypoxia is a well-studied phenomenon in many coastal systems, most previous studies have only focused on variability and controls on low-oxygen water masses during warm months when hypoxia is most extensive. Surprisingly, little attention has been given to investigations of what controls the development of hypoxic water in the months leading up to seasonal oxygen minima in temperate ecosystems. Thus, we investigated aspects of winter–spring oxygen depletion using a 25-year time series (1985–2009) by computing rates of water column O₂ depletion and the timing of hypoxia onset for bottom waters of Chesapeake Bay. On average, hypoxia (O₂ <62.5 μM) initiated in the northernmost region of the deep, central channel in early May and extended southward over ensuing months; however, the range of hypoxia onset dates spanned >50 days (April 6 to May 31 in the upper Bay). O₂ depletion rates were consistently highest in the upper Bay, and elevated Susquehanna River flow resulted in more rapid O₂ depletion and earlier hypoxia onset. Winter–spring chlorophyll a concentration in the bottom water was highly correlated with interannual variability in hypoxia onset dates and water column O₂ depletion rates in the upper and middle Bay, while stratification strength was a more significant driver in the timing of lower Bay hypoxia onset. Hypoxia started earlier in 2012 (April 6) than previously recorded, which may be related to unique climatic and biological conditions in the winter–spring of 2012, including the potential carryover of organic matter delivered to the system during a tropical storm in September 2011. In general, mid-to-late summer hypoxic volumes were not correlated to winter–spring O₂ depletion rates and onset, suggesting that the maintenance of summer hypoxia is controlled more by summer algal production and physical forcing than winter-spring processes. This study provides a novel synthesis of O₂ depletion rates and hypoxia onset dates for Chesapeake Bay, revealing controls on the phenology of hypoxia development in this estuary.     

The near-IR spectrum of Titan modeled with an improved methane line list

We have obtained spatially resolved spectra of Titan in the near-infrared J, H and K bands at a resolving power of ∼5000 using the near-infrared integral field spectrometer (NIFS) on the Gemini North 8 m telescope. Using recent data from the Cassini/Huygens mission on the atmospheric composition and surface and aerosol properties, we develop a multiple-scattering radiative transfer model for the Titan atmosphere. The Titan spectrum at these wavelengths is dominated by absorption due to methane with a series of strong absorption band systems separated by window regions where the surface of Titan can be seen. We use a line-by-line approach to derive the methane absorption coefficients. The methane spectrum is only accurately represented in standard line lists down to ∼2.1 μm. However, by making use of recent laboratory data and modeling of the methane spectrum we are able to construct a new line list that can be used down to 1.3 μm. The new line list allows us to generate spectra that are a good match to the observations at all wavelengths longer than 1.3 μm and allow us to model regions, such as the 1.55 μm window that could not be studied usefully with previous line lists such as HITRAN 2008. We point out the importance of the far-wing line shape of strong methane lines in determining the shape of the methane windows. Line shapes with Lorentzian, and sub-Lorentzian regions are needed to match the shape of the windows, but different shape parameters are needed for the 1.55 μm and 2 μm windows. After the methane lines are modeled our observations are sensitive to additional absorptions, and we use the data in the 1.55 μm region to determine a D/H ratio of 1.77 ± 0.20 × 10⁻⁴, and a CO mixing ratio of 50 ± 11 ppmv. In the 2 μm window we detect absorption features that can be identified with the ν₅ + 3ν₆ and 2ν₃ + 2ν₆ bands of CH₃D.     

Multiple Poincaré sections method for finding the quasiperiodic orbits of the restricted three body problem

A new fully numerical method is presented which employs multiple Poincaré sections to find quasiperiodic orbits of the Restricted Three-Body Problem (RTBP). The main advantages of this method are the small overhead cost of programming and very fast execution times, robust behavior near chaotic regions that leads to full convergence for given family of quasiperiodic orbits and the minimal memory required to store these orbits. This method reduces the calculations required for searching two-dimensional invariant tori to a search for closed orbits, which are the intersection of the invariant tori with the Poincaré sections. Truncated Fourier series are employed to represent these closed orbits. The flow of the differential equation on the invariant tori is reduced to maps between the consecutive Poincaré maps. A Newton iteration scheme utilizes the invariance of the circles of the maps on these Poincaré sections in order to find the Fourier coefficients that define the circles to any given accuracy. A continuation procedure that uses the incremental behavior of the Fourier coefficients between close quasiperiodic orbits is utilized to extend the results from a single orbit to a family of orbits. Quasi-halo and Lissajous families of the Sun–Earth RTBP around the L2 libration point are obtained via this method. Results are compared with the existing literature. A numerical method to transform these orbits from the RTBP model to the real ephemeris model of the Solar System is introduced and applied.     

Galaxy concentrations are trimodal

We have analysed the distribution of inclination-corrected galaxy concentrations in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We find that unlike most galaxy properties, which are distributed bimodally, the distribution of concentrations is trimodal: it exhibits three distinct peaks. The newly discovered intermediate peak, which consists of early-type spirals and lenticulars, may contain ∼60 per cent of the number density and ∼50 per cent of the luminosity density of  ^0.1 M_r < −17  galaxies in the local universe. These galaxies are generally red and quiescent, although the distribution contains a tail of blue star-forming galaxies and also shows evidence of dust. The intermediate-type galaxies have higher apparent ellipticities than either disc or elliptical galaxies, most likely because some of the face-on intermediate types are misidentified as ellipticals. Their physical half-light radii are smaller than the radii of either the disc or elliptical galaxies, which may be evidence that they form from disc fading. The existence of a distinct peak in parameter space associated with early-type spiral galaxies and lenticulars implies that they have a distinct formation mechanism and are not simply the smooth transition between disc-dominated and spheroid-dominated galaxies.     

Testing use of mitochondrial COI sequences for the identification and phylogenetic analysis of New Zealand caddisflies (Trichoptera)

We tested the hypothesis that cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) sequences would successfully discriminate recognised species of New Zealand caddisflies. We further examined whether phylogenetic analyses, based on the COI locus, could recover currently recognised superfamilies and suborders. COI sequences were obtained from 105 individuals representing 61 species and all 16 families of Trichoptera known from New Zealand. No sequence sharing was observed between members of different species, and congeneric species showed from 2.3 to 19.5% divergence. Sequence divergence among members of a species was typically low (mean = 0.7%; range 0.0–8.5%), but two species showed intraspecific divergences in excess of 2%. Phylogenetic reconstructions based on COI were largely congruent with previous conclusions based on morphology, although the sequence data did not support placement of the purse‐cased caddisflies (Hydroptilidae) within the uncased caddisflies, and, in particular, the Rhyacophiloidea. We conclude that sequence variation in the COI gene locus is an effective tool for the identification of New Zealand caddisfly species, and can provide preliminary phylogenetic inferences. Further research is needed to ascertain the significance of the few instances of high intra‐specific divergence and to determine if any instances of sequence sharing will be detected with larger sample sizes.     

Palaeoenvironmental evolution of Cenote Aktun Ha (Carwash) on the Yucatan Peninsula,Mexico and its response to Holocene sea-level rise

A 61-cm core was obtained from 4 m below the water table in Cenote Aktun Ha, on the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The cenote is 8.6 km from the Caribbean coast and its formation and evolution have been largely affected by sea-level change. The base of the core dates to 6,940–6,740 cal year BP and overlying sediments were deposited rapidly over the subsequent ~200 years. The pollen record shows that the cenote evolved from a marsh dominated by red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) and fern (Polypodiaceae) to an open-water system. These vegetation changes were controlled by water level and salinity and are thus useful indicators of past sea level. At the base, the δ¹³C_org isotopic ratios reveal the influence of terrestrial vegetation (−29‰ VPDB), but shift to more negative values up-core (−33‰), indicating an influence from particulate matter in the flooded cenote pool. Although microfossil populations were nearly absent through most of the core, the microfossil assemblage in the upper 6 cm of the core is dominated by the juvenile foraminifer Ammonia tepida and the thecamoebian genus Centropyxis. These populations indicate open-water conditions in the cenote and a major environmental shift around 6,600 cal year BP, which is related to sea-level rise in the Caribbean basin. These data fit well with previously established sea-level curves for the Caribbean Sea. Our reconstruction of the environmental history of Cenote Aktun Ha helps elucidate the floral and hydrological history of the region, and highlights the utility of cenote sediments for studying the Holocene sea-level history of the Caribbean Sea.     

Assessment of the UV camera sulfur dioxide retrieval for point source plumes

Digital cameras, sensitive to specific regions of the ultra-violet (UV) spectrum, have been employed for quantifying sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions in recent years. The instruments make use of the selective absorption of UV light by SO₂ molecules to determine pathlength concentration. Many monitoring advantages are gained by using this technique, but the accuracy and limitations have not been thoroughly investigated. The effect of some user-controlled parameters, including image exposure duration, the diameter of the lens aperture, the frequency of calibration cell imaging, and the use of the single or paired bandpass filters, have not yet been addressed. In order to clarify methodological consequences and quantify accuracy, laboratory and field experiments were conducted. Images were collected of calibration cells under varying observational conditions, and our conclusions provide guidance for enhanced image collection. Results indicate that the calibration cell response is reliably linear below 1500 ppm m, but that the response is significantly affected by changing light conditions. Exposure durations that produced maximum image digital numbers above 32 500 counts can reduce noise in plume images. Sulfur dioxide retrieval results from a coal-fired power plant plume were compared to direct sampling measurements and the results indicate that the accuracy of the UV camera retrieval method is within the range of current spectrometric methods.     

The new blackbirds? Vanuatu guestworkers in New Zealand

An agricultural guestworker scheme for Pacific island states began in New Zealand in 2007 to remedy domestic agricultural labour shortages. Vanuatu was one of the first countries to take advantage of the scheme. After a pilot venture in 2007 greater numbers of workers were recruited in 2008. In Tanna, the recruits, though mainly male, represented a cross‐section of the population. Their objectives were income generation for education fees, house building and eventually small business development. Early returnees acquired significant capital and met some of these objectives. The scheme has benefited both countries and the first generation of guestworkers.