Bias in hydraulic head measurements from multilevel vibrating-wire piezometers with excessively permeable backfill

Hydrogeology Journal - An extensive network of multilevel vibrating-wire piezometers (VWP) was recently created to monitor the spatial and temporal variation of pore pressure (and hydraulic head)...     

The influence of negative emission technologies and technology policies on the optimal climate mitigation portfolio

Combining policies to remove carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere with policies to reduce emissions could decrease CO₂ concentrations faster than possible via natural processes. We model the optimal selection of a dynamic portfolio of abatement, research and development (R&D), and negative emission policies under an exogenous CO₂ constraint and with stochastic technological change. We find that near-term abatement is not sensitive to the availability of R&D policies, but the anticipated availability of negative emission strategies can reduce the near-term abatement optimally undertaken to meet 2°C temperature limits. Further, planning to deploy negative emission technologies shifts optimal R&D funding from ??carbon-free?? technologies into ??emission intensity?? technologies. Making negative emission strategies available enables an 80% reduction in the cost of keeping year 2100 CO₂ concentrations near their current level. However, negative emission strategies are less important if the possibility of tipping points rules out using late-century net negative emissions to temporarily overshoot the CO₂ constraint earlier in the century.     

The Ashima/MIT Mars GCM and argon in the martian atmosphere

We investigate the ability of modern general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate transport in the martian atmosphere using measurements of argon as a proxy for the transport processes. Argon provides the simplest measure of transport as it is a noble gas with no sinks or sources on seasonal timescales. Variations in argon result solely from ‘freeze distillation’, as the atmosphere condenses at the winter poles, and from atmospheric transport. Comparison of all previously published models when rescaled to a common definition of the argon enhancement factor (EF) suggest that models generally do a poor job in predicting the peak enhancement in southern winter over the winter pole – the time when the capability of the model transport approaches are most severely tested. Despite observed peak EF values of ～6, previously published model predictions peaked at EF values of only 2–3. We introduce a new GCM that provides a better treatment of mass conservation within the dynamical core, includes more sophisticated tracer transport approaches, and utilizes a cube–sphere grid structure thus avoiding the grid-point convergence problem at the pole that exists for most current Mars GCMs. We describe this model – the Ashima Research/Massachusetts Institute of Technology Mars General Circulation Model (Ashima/MIT Mars GCM) and use it to demonstrate the significant sensitivity of peak EF to the choices of transport approach for both tracers and heat. We obtain a peak EF of 4.75 which, while over 50% higher than any prior model, remains well short of the observed value. We show that the polar EF value in winter is primarily determined by the competition between two processes: (1) mean meridional import of lower-latitude air not enriched in argon and (2) the leakage of enriched argon out of the polar column by eddies in the lowest atmospheric levels. We suggest possibilities for improving GCM representation of the CO₂ cycle and the general circulation that may further improve the simulation of the argon cycle. We conclude that current GCMs may be insufficient for detailed simulation of transport-sensitive problems like the water cycle and potentially also the dust cycle.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for South-Eastern France

The accurate evaluation and appropriate treatment of uncertainties is of primary importance in modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). One of the objectives of the SIGMA project was to establish a framework to improve knowledge and data on two target regions characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity. In this paper, for South-Eastern France, we present the final PSHA performed within the SIGMA project. A new earthquake catalogue for France covering instrumental and historical periods was used for the calculation of the magnitude-frequency distributions. The hazard model incorporates area sources, smoothed seismicity and a 3D faults model. A set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from global and regional data, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region, was used to calculate the hazard. The magnitude-frequency distributions, maximum magnitude, faults slip rate and style-of-faulting are considered as additional source of epistemic uncertainties. The hazard results for generic rock condition (Vs30 = 800 m/s) are displayed for 20 sites in terms of uniform hazard spectra at two return periods (475 years and 10,000 years). The contributions of the epistemic uncertainties in the ground motion characterizations and in the seismic source characterization to the total hazard uncertainties are analyzed. Finally, we compare the results with existing models developed at national scale in the framework of the first generation of models supporting the Eurocode 8 enforcement, (MEDD 2002 and AFPS06) and at the European scale (within the SHARE project), highlighting significant discrepancies at short return periods.     

A two-surface thermomechanical plasticity model considering thermal cyclic behavior

In thermal-related engineering such as thermal energy structures and nuclear waste disposal, it is essential to well understand volume change and excess pore water pressure buildup of soils under thermal cycles. However, most existing thermo-mechanical models can merely simulate one heating–cooling cycle and fail in capturing accumulation phenomenon due to multiple thermal cycles. In this study, a two-surface elasto-plastic model considering thermal cyclic behavior is proposed. This model is based on the bounding surface plasticity and progressive plasticity by introducing two yield surfaces and two loading yield limits. A dependency law is proposed by linking two loading yield limits with a thermal accumulation parameter n_c, allowing the thermal cyclic behavior to be taken into account. Parameter n_c controls the evolution rate of the inner loading yield limit approaching the loading yield limit following a thermal loading path. By extending the thermo-hydro-mechanical equations into the elastic–plastic state, the excess pore water pressure buildup of soil due to thermal cycles is also accounted. Then, thermal cycle tests on four fine-grained soils (natural Boom clay, Geneva clay, Bonny silt, and reconstituted Pontida clay) under different OCRs and stresses are simulated and compared. The results show that the proposed model can well describe both strain accumulation phenomenon and excess pore water pressure buildup of fine-grained soils under the effect of thermal cycles.

     

Adjustability of exposed elements by updating their capacity for resistance after a damaging event: application to an earthquake–tsunami cascade scenario

Natural Hazards - The 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami remind us once again that these types of cascade event can occur and cause considerable damage. The scientific community realizes...     

Hydrodynamic time parameters response to meteorological and physical forcings: toward a stagnation risk assessment device in coastal areas

Ocean Dynamics - Identifying zones of stagnation and deposition of terrigenous matter or contaminants induced by human activity is a key issue in coastal areas. In this paper, circulation processes...     

Controls on permafrost thaw in a coupled groundwater-flow and heat-transport system: Iqaluit Airport,Nunavut, Canada

Numerical simulations of groundwater flow and heat transport are used to provide insight into the interaction between shallow groundwater flow and thermal dynamics related to permafrost thaw and thaw settlement at the Iqaluit Airport taxiway, Nunavut, Canada. A conceptual model is first developed for the site and a corresponding two-dimensional numerical model is calibrated to the observed ground temperatures. Future climate-warming impacts on the thermal regime and flow system are then simulated based on climate scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Under climate warming, surface snow cover is identified as the leading factor affecting permafrost degradation, including its role in increasing the sensitivity of permafrost degradation to changes in various hydrogeological factors. In this case, advective heat transport plays a relatively minor, but non-negligible, role compared to conductive heat transport, due to the significant extent of low-permeability soil close to surface. Conductive heat transport, which is strongly affected by the surface snow layer, controls the release of unfrozen water and the depth of the active layer as well as the magnitude of thaw settlement and frost heave. Under the warmest climate-warming scenario with an average annual temperature increase of 3.23 °C for the period of 2011–2100, the simulations suggest that the maximum depth of the active layer will increase from 2 m in 2012 to 8.8 m in 2100 and, over the same time period, thaw settlement along the airport taxiway will increase from 0.11 m to at least 0.17 m.

     

New analysis of Lunar Prospector radio tracking data brings the nearside gravity field of the Moon with an unprecedented resolution

A new analysis of the Doppler tracking data from the Lunar Prospector mission in 1999 revealed a number of previously-unseen gravity anomalies at spatial scales as small as 27 km over the nearside. The tracking data at low altitudes (50 km or below) were better analyzed to resolve the nearside features without dampening from a power law constraint, by partitioning the gravity parameters concentrated on either the nearside or farside. The resulting model presents gravity anomalies correlated with topography with a correlation coefficient of 0.7 or higher from degree 50 to 150, the widest bandwidth yet. The gravity-topography admittance of ∼70 mGal/km is found from numerous craters of which diameters are 60 km or less. In addition, the new model produces orbits that fit to independent radio tracking data from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and Kaguya (SELENE) better than previous gravity models. This high-resolution model can be of immediate use to geophysical analysis of small craters. Our technique could be applied to an upcoming mission, the Gravity Recovery And Interior Laboratory and useful to extract short wavelength signals from the MESSENGER Doppler data.