A Simplified Kinetic Element Formulation for the Rotation of a Perturbed Mass-Asymmetric Rigid Body

Euler's equations, describing the rotation of an arbitrarily torqued mass asymmetric rigid body, are scaled using linear transformations that lead to a simplified set of first order ordinary differential equations without the explicit appearance of the principal moments of inertia. These scaled differential equations provide trivial access to an analytical solution and two constants of integration for the case of torque-free motion. Two additional representations for the third constant of integration are chosen to complete two new kinetic element sets that describe an osculating solution using the variation of parameters. The elements' physical representations are amplitudes and either angular displacement or initial time constant in the torque-free solution. These new kinetic elements lead to a considerably simplified variation of parameters solution to Euler's equations. The resulting variational equations are quite compact. To investigate error propagation behaviour of these new variational formulations in computer simulations, they are compared to the unmodified equations without kinematic coupling but under the influence of simulated gravity-gradient torques.     

Climate of the past millennium inferred from varved proglacial lake sediments on northeast Baffin Island,Arctic Canada

This study uses ^239+240Pu-dated varved sediments from Big Round Lake, a proglacial lake on northeast Baffin Island, Arctic Canada to generate a 1000-year-long, annual-resolution record of past climate. Varve thickness is positively correlated with July–August–September temperature measured at Clyde River, 70 km to the north of the lake (r = 0.46, p < 0.001). We therefore interpret the variability and trends in varve thickness to partially represent summer temperature. The coolest Little Ice Age temperatures occurred in this record from 1575 to 1760 AD and were approximately 1.5°C cooler than today (average from 1995 to 2005 AD) and 0.2°C cooler than the last millennium (average from 1000 to 2000 AD). Pre-twentieth-century warmth occurred during two intervals, 970–1150 AD and 1375–1575 AD; temperatures were approximately 1.2°C cooler than today, but 0.1°C warmer than the last millennium. The Big Round Lake varve-thickness record contains features similar to that reconstructed elsewhere in the eastern Canadian Arctic. This high-resolution quantitative record expands our understanding of arctic climate during the past millennium.

Using the precision of the mean to estimate suitable sample sizes for monitoring total phosphorus in Australian catchments

The effect of the sample size on prediction quality is well understood. Recently, studies have assessed this relationship using near‐continuous water quality samples. However, this is rarely possible because of financial constraints, and therefore, many studies have relied on simulation‐based methods utilizing more affordable surrogates. A limitation of simulation‐based methods is the requirement of a good relationship, which is often not present. Therefore, catchment managers require a direct method to estimate the effect of sample size on the mean using historical water quality data. One measure of prediction quality is the precision with which a mean is estimated; this is the focus of this work. By characterizing the effect of sample size on the precision of the mean, it is possible for catchment managers to adjust the sample size in relation to both the cost and the precision. Historical data are often sparse and generally collected using several different sampling schemes, all without inclusion probabilities. This means that an approach is needed to obtain unbiased estimates of the variance of the mean using a model‐based approach. With the use of total phosphorus data from 17 sub‐catchments in southeastern Australia, the ability of a model‐based approach to estimate the effect of sample size on the precision of event and base‐flow mean concentrations. The results showed that for estimating annual base‐flow mean concentration, little gain in precision was achieved above 12 observations per year. Sample sizes greater than 12 samples per event improved event‐based estimates; however, the inclusion of more than 12 samples per event did not greatly reduce the event mean concentration uncertainties. The precision of the base‐flow estimates was most correlated to percentage urban cover, whereas the precision of the event mean estimates was most correlated with catchment size. The method proposed in this work could be readily applied to other water quality variables and other monitoring sites. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Securing the climate benefits of stable forests

Stable forests – those not already significantly disturbed nor facing predictable near-future risks of anthropogenic disturbance – may play a large role in the climate solution, due to their carbon sequestration and storage capabilities. Their importance is recognized by the Paris Agreement, but stable forests have received comparatively little attention through existing forest protection mechanisms and finance. Instead, emphasis has been placed on targeting locations where deforestation and forest degradation are happening actively. Yet stopping deforestation and forest degradation does not guarantee durable success, especially outside the geographic scope of targeted efforts. As a result, today’s stable forests may be at risk without additional efforts to secure their long-term conservation.

We synthesize the gaps in existing policy efforts that could address the climate-related benefits derived from stable forests, noting several barriers to action, such as uncertainty around the level of climate services that stable forests provide and difficulties describing the real level of threat posed. We argue that resource and finance allocation for stable forests should be incorporated into countries’ and donors’ comprehensive portfolios aimed at tackling deforestation and forest degradation as well as resulting emissions. A holistic and forward-looking approach will be particularly important, given that success in tackling deforestation and forest degradation where it is currently happening will need to be sustained in the long term.

Key policy insights

• Climate policies, finance, and implementation have tended to focus on areas of recent forest loss and near-term threats of anthropogenic disturbance, resulting in an imbalance of effort that fails to adequately address stable forests.

• In some contexts, policy measuresintended to secure the climate-related benefits of stable forests have competed poorly against more urgent threats. Policymakers and finance mechanisms should view stable forests as a complementary element within a holistic, long-term approach to resource management.

• International mechanisms and national frameworks should be adjusted and resourced to promote the long-term sustainability and permanence of stable forests.

• Beyond additional resources, the climate benefits of stable forests may be best secured by pro-actively designing implementing policies that recognize the rights and interests of stakeholders who are affected by land management decisions.

     

Protostellar evolution during time-dependent anisotropic collapse

The formation and collapse of a protostar involves the simultaneous infall and outflow of material in the presence of magnetic fields, self-gravity and rotation. We use self-similar techniques to self-consistently model the anisotropic collapse and outflow by using a set of angle-separated self-similar equations. The outflow is quite strong in our model, with the velocity increasing in proportion to radius, and material formally escaping to infinity in the finite time is required for the central singularity to develop.
Analytically tractable collapse models have been limited mainly to spherically symmetric collapse, with neither magnetic field nor rotation. Other analyses usually employ extensive numerical simulations, or either perturbative or quasistatic techniques. Our model is unique as an exact solution to the non-stationary equations of self-gravitating magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), which features co-existing regions of infall and outflow.
The velocity and magnetic topology of our model is quadrupolar, although dipolar solutions may also exist. We provide a qualitative model for the origin and subsequent evolution of such a state. However, a central singularity forms at late times, and we expect the late-time behaviour to be dominated by the singularity, rather than depend on the details of its initial state. Our solution may, therefore, have the character of an attractor among a much more general class of self-similarity.     

The influence of seismotectonics on precursory changes in groundwater composition for the 1995 Kobe earthquake, Japan

It is shown that temporal variation in hydrochemistry may be attributed, in part, to continuous seismotectonic activity occurring before the onset of the 1995 “Kobe” earthquake, Japan, challenging the “one earthquake–one signal” hypothesis with respect to potential precursory signals to this devastating event. A possible continuous seismotectonic influence on chloride and sulphate ion-concentration is evaluated with aggregate earthquake-information by transforming a multivariate earthquake time series (including coordinates and magnitude) into a one-dimensional time series (considering geometric relationships between earthquakes and the well-site). A piecewise analysis of ion-concentration and seismotectonic-activity time series compares trends and change points between the two time series: a positive correlation (before the proposed onset of the preparation stage) is followed by a negative correlation (during the proposed preparation stage) which, in turn, is succeeded by a positive correlation (after the heaviest aftershock sequences). This suggests that seismotectonic processes occurring before the Kobe earthquake dynamically influenced aquifer characteristics, leading to temporal variations in the hydrochemical time series. Accordingly, a dynamic change in the mixing ratios of waters with different hydrochemical characteristics is proposed as a mechanism for explaining observed variation. The research can be extended by considering vectors in the stress field that lead to changes in the aquifer-well system.The influence of seismotectonics on precursory changes in groundwater composition for the 1995 Kobe earthquake, Japan.     

C2/c pyroxene phenocrysts from three potassic series in the Neogene alkaline volcanics, NE Turkey: their crystal chemistry with petrogenetic significance as an indicator of P–T conditions

Chemical and structural data are reported for C2/c pyroxene phenocrysts collected from three potassic series (Group A: basanite-tephrite, Group B: tephrite-phonolitic tephrite, Group C: alkaline basalt-trachybasalt) of the Neogene alkaline volcanics (NAVs) in northeastern Turkey, in order to investigate the evolution of the magmatic plumbing system and the location of magma chamber(s) with crystallization conditions. The rock series hosting the clinopyroxene phenocrysts show generally porphyritic texture and have a variable phenocryst-rich nature (20–58%), with phenocryst assemblages characterized by cpx ± ol ± plag ± foid ± amp ± bio. The clinopyroxene phenocrysts can be chemically classified as Ti- and Fe³⁺-rich Al-diopsides for Groups A and B (AB-cpxs) and Ti- and Fe³⁺-poor Al-diopsides for Group C (C-cpxs). They have poorly variable composition, clustering in the diopside field. Structurally, the diopside groups have nearly similar a (ranging from 9.73 to 9.75 ?), V _cell (437.2–440.9 ?³), and 〈beta〉 angle values (106.01°–106.23°), but some differences in polyhedral parameters and geometries of the AB-cpxs and C-cpxs have been observed. For example, the AB-cpxs are characterized by larger c (5.27–5.30 vs. 5.25–5.28 ?), V _T (2.27–2.30 vs. 2.23–2.28 ?³), and V _M2 (25.53–25.72 vs. 25.41–25.59 ?³) values and smaller b (8.87–8.88 vs. 8.88–8.91 ?) and V _M1 (11.49–11.63 vs. 11.64–11.83 ?³) values with respect to the C-cpxs. In addition, the AB-cpxs show higher values of V _M2/V _M1 (2.20–2.23) due to large V _M2 and small V _M1 compared to the V _M2/V _M1 ratios of the C-cpxs (<2.19). Such differences in the crystal structure of the AB-cpxs and C-cpxs from the NAVs are partly related to different crystallization pressures, but mostly related to variation in melt composition and, possibly, the influence of other crystallizing mineral phases. In particular, R(M2-O1) and R(M1-O2) (i.e. bond lengths) differences in the clinopyroxenes of different groups support the presence of evolved host rocks with different alkaline character (i.e. silica-undersaturated Groups A–B and silica-saturated Group C). Based on the cpx-geothermobarometry, the crystallization pressures for the C-cpxs are lower than 4.5 kbars, but the AB-cpxs have relatively high-pressure values (5.6–10.6 kbars), suggesting that the AB-cpxs crystallized in higher pressure environments. The relatively higher crystallization temperatures of the AB-cpxs also indicate higher cooling rates. The P–T estimates suggest that the source regions of the clinopyroxene phenocrysts from the NAVs were crustal magma chambers in a closed plumbing system at a moderate- to low-pressure regime.